Through the comparison of the degree of economic deterioration of various countries, countries with grain, minerals and resources can be eligible holders
In today's world, there are very few countries that can raise interest rates without fear of the Fed, and their advantage is that they are all large resource surpluses. No matter how the dollar is overissued, how diluted the credit is, and how the dollar circulates to cut leeks, as long as the price of mineral resources such as oil, gas, coal, iron, copper and so on increases, because it is just demand, the world will also rob. Once the economic crisis comes, when the tide recedes, countries with minerals, food and resources are relatively the most able to bear.
Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, these upstream raw material suppliers, compared with other countries, in the face of the Fed interest rate hike, relatively relaxed.
In contrast, there are a number of industrial countries, typical of which are Japan, South Korea, India and Turkey. Its situation is not optimistic, it is not a big mineral energy household, energy can not be self-sufficient, need to rely on imports, hard to produce goods in exchange for dollars, but also have to pay dollars to import raw materials, one in and one out to bear the double pressure of the dollar, deducing the complete dollar harvest cycle.
Countries that do not have complete industries or sufficient resources, and can develop relatively well, are basically concentrated in Southeast Asia. Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore. These countries, with a certain manufacturing base, relatively scarce resources, and unable to be self-sufficient in energy, have created a large amount of GDP in the era of peace and stability. Due to the trade liberalization agreement in Southeast Asia, the population structure is young, and the industrial transfer and capital investment of major countries have resisted the decline in adversity. But the common problem is that as long as it is denominated in dollars, the fact that per capita GDP is falling is impressive.
With the four advantages of military industry, US dollar, energy and chips, the United States is firmly in the market maker position, unshakable. At present, China is in the throes of maintaining exports, expanding domestic demand, and striving for transformation and upgrading. On the whole, in the future, China's foreign exchange reserves will be gradually reduced as planned, replaced by physical reserves such as oil and gas, grain and precious metals, and enhance the status of RMB in international settlement. As long as it persists until the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the renminbi will usher in a new beginning, and then it will move towards a relatively slow but steady path of appreciation.
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