Bolivia, the landlocked South American country with the largest number of military coups in history, recently drove chariots into the square in front of the presidential palace and broke down the door in an attempt to overthrow the incumbent civilian president, Luis Arce. After a three-hour standoff, Ars not only asked the people to take to the streets to support him, but also persuaded the coup general, Juan José Züñiga, to stop the plot, and the latter was subsequently arrested. However, due to the intriguing process and the fact that Juniga told reporters before his arrest that Ars had ordered him to plan a sham coup, there were rumors of a "self-autogolpe".
Since the establishment of Bolivia in the early nineteenth century, there have been 24 military coups, including this coup, nearly half of which have succeeded in overthrowing the government. In other words, Bolivia experiences an unconstitutional regime change every 20 years on average. The last successful military coup d'état was in 1964, when the military ruled until 1982, and then after more than 40 years of civilian rule, although there were rumors of military coups from time to time, Bolivia was basically a partially free country with regular elections, but the political instability, large-scale protests and serious economic problems led to the incumbent president being forced to resign from his post four times.
The most recent unrest was a few years ago when Evo Morales, the leader of the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), the first Aboriginal leftist party, sought to amend the constitution and extend his term of office after winning three consecutive presidential elections in 2005. Despite the failure of the constitutional amendment, the Constitutional Court found that Morales was still eligible to run. In the first round of the 2019 election, he led his opponent with 40% of the vote. Although it did not reach the half-point, it was just over 10 percentage points ahead of the nearest opponent and did not need to enter the second round. However, he was also forced to resign from his post after the ruling party was deemed to have engaged in serious vote-making practices, which led to mass protests taking to the streets to express their dissatisfaction.
After nearly a year of conservative transitional government, Morales' political ally who served as Minister of Economy and Finance during his tenure, Ars, was elected president in 2020, and Bolivia returned to leftist rule. Morales, who had been in exile in Mexico and Argentina for eleven months, returned to Bolivia and accepted Als's amnesty. Although Morales is regarded as the most influential president in the history of Bolivania, once he steps down, he is only a former politician without office, while Ars is the leader of the country with real power. For example, in the nomination process for the 2021 MAS local elections, Morales supported four candidates who wanted to win the nomination of governor within the party, which showed that his position in the party was not as good as before. However, his grassroots and down-to-earth spirit are incomparable to those of economic experts and technocrats from the financial world. As Morales prepares to run for the 2025 presidential election, the two have gone from former comrades-in-arms to contenders, and their relationship is strained.
Bolivia's current natural gas exports have fallen sharply, causing a natural decline in foreign exchange reserves, and at the same time it is not immune to global inflation, so the overall economy is in great trouble, and the general population is no longer able to tolerate the rapid rise in prices, so there are many complaints. According to a professor of political science at the University of San Andrés in the country, in addition to politics, economics, society and the environment, the biggest challenges facing the country come from the political system. In particular, Ars leads a weak government, and the ruling party itself is divided and lacks integration, which makes Als even more worried about the challenge from Morales, which may explain the "self-directed" coup.
Personally, after watching the relevant newsreel, I feel that the whole process is like a farce, which is very different from the military coup that I am familiar with. First, the soldiers drove around the square in front of the house, which resembles the Kaida Grand Boulevard, attracting the attention of the public, and then one of them rammed into the presidential palace and broke into the door, and then the two sides confronted each other. This is in stark contrast to the absence of the most important element of the coup, the "surprise", where the soldiers involved in the coup seem to be rallying the people to anticipate action, and then Ars can have a target to appeal. Second, Juniga was interviewed by the media in the square, explaining that the reason for the military coup was to save the crumbling democracy in Poland. Usually such a declaration will come after the successful seizure of power, not before. Finally, in the case of the confrontation between Ars and Juniga, the whole process can be videotaped, including Juniga's dismal departure after being unable to convince Ars, and there is no chaos at all that should be expected during the seizure of power.
MAS vice-president Gerardo García accused Ars of making democracy a laughing stock and being the mastermind behind the fake coup. Morales's words are even more subtle: "I don't know what kind of military coup this is? A coup d'état in which there were no casualties, not a single shot fired, no deaths?" Whether these accusations are true or not, rumors of a self-coup d'état are so deeply ingrained in the people's imagination that if this impression provokes a backlash, the Ars government will only be more vulnerable.