(Dr. Wen Jiapeng, General Manager of Beijing Kejiatong Innovation Energy Co., Ltd.)
Core Ideas:
1. The charging pile is changing from a simple charging service to a service carrier, and this evolution process is taking place, which is also the story logic of the future of the charging pile plate.
2. "Policy" is a double-edged sword, which can play a great role in the early stage of the industry. However, if the understanding and power point of the policy are not clear, it may be misleading and even lead itself into the pit.
3. It is necessary to stand at the level of higher industrial clusters such as "vehicle + pile + network" and "pile + storage", and carry out technical research and deployment with the strategic vision of "collaboration" and "empowerment".
4. The overseas operation of charging piles can refer to the model of China's high-speed rail going to sea, and we output not only charging piles, but also "strong service" and "soft power" packaged output.
5. The industry pattern is far from being determined, the hegemon is far from forming, we can all travel lightly and move forward bravely.
In May 2023, the charging pile sector ushered in a wave of rapid rise. From the industrial policy guidelines issued by the official successively, to the insights and consensus of various investors on the gap in the charging pile market, this sector that has undergone ten years of cultivation and precipitation has been pushed to the wind.
How should we view the gap and investment space in the domestic and overseas charging pile markets? How should pile enterprises grasp the rhythm and strategy of investment attack? ...... With ten topics closely related to industrial investment, Digital Intelligence Observation launched an in-depth exchange with Dr. Wen Jiapeng, General Manager of Beijing Kejiatong Innovation Energy Co., Ltd.
Dr. Wen Jiapeng has more than ten years of research and practical experience in the charging pile industry, and can be said to be a combination of knowledge and action on policy, technology and market.
First, the larger the gap, the more opportunities
Zheng Chunfeng: With the rapid development of electric vehicles, the field of charging piles has also attracted close attention from all parties. From the tone set by the Party Central Committee to the direction of the executive meeting of the State Council, and then to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions successively issuing relevant policies, the accelerated heating up of the charging pile market has become a fact for all to see. In fact, with the rapid increase in the number of electric vehicles, the problem of the gap in the stock of charging piles has been continuously amplified. Investors generally have a hunch that there are growing opportunities in this space. You have been working in the field of charging piles for many years, and you should be more sensitive to changes in policies and markets. What do you think of the problem of charging pile gaps? How do you see the current wave of market and opportunities?
Wen Jiapeng: First of all, from the perspective of the entire development stage of new energy, whether it is the heat of the entire market or the guidance of national policies, it has now reached a point that is more in line with expectations. In the next 5-10 years or even 15 years, 20 years of electric vehicle development planning and path, including intermediate process data has been relatively predictable or predictable.
From this point of view, the electric vehicle market will break out rapidly according to the stage of rapid development. It is definitely a huge opportunity for all our enterprises, companies and institutions involved in this industry. Secondly, the development of new energy vehicles may be to complete self-iteration with the adjustment of the energy structure, and the charging pile will also change from a simple charging service for electric vehicles to a carrier of new energy services, this evolutionary process is taking place, and it is also the story logic of the future of the charging pile sector. I think both of these prejudgments and epistemologies are more important. This is also a basic premise for me to see the gap in the charging pile market.
Zheng Chunfeng: The charging pile itself also involves an energy problem. Then it comes to being closely related to mass consumption, because with everyone user, we may have been talking about his TOB in previous years. Then when there are more and more such a car at the end of the private user, the charging pile is closely related to everyone's life and our travel. Some changes in these two areas, what do you think bring to our investment?
Wen Jiapeng: In these two fields, I actually think there are mainly two aspects, and I think there may be a better one in the future, for example, what we call mass consumer product-level, product-level. I think that with the adjustment of the energy structure, many energy products can become a consumer product, which can be accepted and used by the public. I think this may be in the dimension of the product. The other is that there are so many energy products, and there will definitely be a variety of operating and service companies throughout the market phase. Then this type of company is similar to what we call the concept of energy +, or energy ecology. There are many companies that will be born, and there may be multiple models or multiple forms of exploration.
Second, the multi-level market structure is still shuffling
Zheng Chunfeng: In the face of such a huge market gap and investment opportunities, many investors are trying to enter the market, but one of the psychological roadblocks in their current situation is to find that there are already many well-known head players in this industry. In your opinion, is the current charging pile industry really monopolized by the so-called top three and top four? What are the outstanding characteristics of these head players? Is it difficult for new entrants to have another chance?
Wen Jiapeng: In terms of the development of the industry's pattern, it has not yet developed to a saturated state. The space for development of the entire industry is still very huge. We can divide and observe in three dimensions.
The first category is traditional enterprises in power energy. For example, State Grid, it may have found its position in the construction of charging piles and charging networks for more than a decade. At present, it is increasingly moving towards the basic end of the service, such as providing power supply and then providing energy replenishment, and then doing some charging services for specific scenarios.
The second category is traditional charging operators. For example, special calls, star charging, they may be more in the way of optimizing network layout, optimizing product routes and other ways to adjust, in a steady state of progress.
But I think "opportunities" may arise in the third category. The third category also has several dimensions.
The first dimension is traditional energy-based industrial companies, such as PetroChina and Sinopec. There is also the real estate industry. These are enterprises with charging pile landing resources or charging pile construction network resources.
The second dimension is concentrated in car companies. This includes both the new forces we call car manufacturing and traditional car companies, because the sales of their vehicles must involve energy structure and energy supply. I think they will also quickly participate in the territory of charging services.
The third dimension is third-party operators. I think this kind of company also has a lot of room for development in the future, they can jump off all the previous baggage and shackles, and it is easier to create new business models, new scenarios, and new energy service models; And they can also cooperate with the first two categories to play more tricks.
Zheng Chunfeng: Is it possible to understand that in the past ten years or so, in the development process, the first two categories have been constantly exploring the way and constantly typing, and have done a lot of pioneering work in the mode, path, and technical standards of the charging industry. The efforts of these pioneers, on the one hand, have found the right direction and paved the way for the latecomers, and on the other hand, because of their first-mover advantage, objectively created a moat for the latecomers to enter.
Wen Jiapeng: Yes. On the whole, the third type of players just mentioned have relatively more opportunities to participate in the competition, and the pace may be more calm. After all, they will all stand on the shoulders of those who came before them.
From the data released by relevant industry institutions, although we often say that the top three and top four market shares are still 60%-70%. But if you look at the whole country, the current plate of the entire charging pile market is actually not large, and the ranking of this market share and the absolute number behind it are still very small. If the state of 1:1 vehicle pile ratio is really achieved, needless to say that five years later, it is said that the current pile matching problem of more than 10 million vehicles can see the market opportunity.
It is obvious that the speed and scale of investment and construction of these leading players in the market are not as good as before, and they are also in the bottleneck period of "more than enough and insufficient strength". Therefore, for new entrants, as long as they psychologically realize that the pattern is far from being determined and the hegemon is far from being formed, they can travel lightly and move forward bravely.
Zheng Chunfeng: When it comes to charging piles, everyone usually thinks of charging equipment and operations directly related to car charging, but in fact, this is also a huge industrial cluster with upstream, middle and downstream and a large number of listed companies. How do you observe some of the players in this cluster?
Wen Jiapeng: In the charging industry cluster, many enterprises have their inherent industry status, they have long accumulated in the industry, and have a strong industrial foundation and strength. For example, the upstream does modules, chips, and basic materials, and the downstream does system integration and product integration. With the concentrated explosion of electric vehicles and charging demand, the energy and performance of these companies will naturally be highlighted. Their strengthening and expansion is a good thing for the entire charging industry. Of course, as the entire new energy vehicle and new energy industry enters a period of stable growth, the charging industry cluster will inevitably accelerate the survival of the fittest.
Third, where will the charging pile industry policy lead?
Zheng Chunfeng: The charging pile industry can develop to the point of prosperity today, and the "policy promotion" factor has played a great role. Since 2008, you have fully participated in the policy research and major projects of this industry, and witnessed the development of the industry from small to large. Even in the current boom period, new and old players in the industry still hope that the policy will continue to increase. How do you evaluate the role of industrial policy in the development of the industry? What are your personal expectations for future policies?
Wen Jiapeng: I think "policy" is a double-edged sword, which can play a big role in the early stage of the industry. However, if everyone does not understand the policy and the power point of the policy is not clear, it may produce some misleading and even lead themselves into the pit.
For the development of the entire new energy industry in the past ten years, industrial policy has indeed played a strong guiding and promoting role at different points in time. Even with our current philosophy and trend of redefining charging piles as an entry point to energy, policy is still crucial. The rapid development of electrification of mainland transportation and leading the process of global industrial changes has in turn verified the forward-looking and feasibility of our relevant industrial policies in the past ten years.
As far as I personally observe, some of the newly introduced industrial policies are becoming more detailed and standardized. Even new entrants and investors can better find business models suitable for their resources and endowments in such an increasingly clear industrial environment and policy environment. From this point of view, the "real opportunity" for investment in the charging pile industry has come.
In recent years, we have been involved in some related businesses of civil aviation. In terms of policies related to charging services, concepts such as "oil to electricity" and "blue sky defense" have been transformed into specific policy guidelines, and the degree of refinement is getting stronger and stronger. For example, in terms of community charging policy, it is also in combination with the real needs of society and the actual ability of participating enterprises, and gradually moving towards "unified construction, unified operation, unified management, and unified service", and the final benefit is not only the user side, but also all enterprises involved in it have rules to follow and are profitable.
Zheng Chunfeng: My feeling is that in the past ten years, the policies related to charging piles have also been constantly crossing the river by feeling the stones, dynamically adjusting in practice and becoming more reasonable and scientific. Therefore, for the late-entrants, if their own market strategies and product strategies can form a benign interaction with the policy and go in the same direction, the future results will not be worse.
Wen Jiapeng: Yes. The industrial policies related to charging piles have indeed undergone an evolution process from direction guidance to more grounding. In the past ten years, many industry pioneers have done a lot of pioneering work based on their own prediction of the market, and paid a lot of tuition for the development of the entire industry in the right direction. Their practical experience and lessons have also provided important references for relevant ministries and commissions to continuously update their policies.
For example, what are the problems encountered in the development of electric vehicles in cities? What are the problems encountered in the construction of charging facilities? For example, the new energy vehicles that are now being promoted to the countryside and charging piles are fully covered, for such a scene in the countryside, how to combine its characteristics, and then produce a sustainable business model with overall hematopoietic ability? No matter which model runs out in the end, there must be policy blessings and dynamic adjustments behind it.
With a good industrial policy, the market is perceptive. When the various actors show a positive response to the signals sent by the policy, human, material and capital resources will come together. For the production, manufacturing, investment and operation of charging piles, only with the full participation of various social forces can a powerful "charging network" be built, and electric vehicles can truly enter the fast lane.
Fourth, the low-end charging pile without technology will not go far
Zheng Chunfeng: I think that the rapid development of the mainland charging pile industry, in addition to benefiting from the continuous increase of industrial policies and the continuous investment of various capitals, there is also an important factor, that is, technological breakthroughs and refreshes have injected strong endogenous force into the industry. However, from a realistic point of view, there are many people who think that the charging pile industry has no technical threshold and does not need any basic reserves, especially in the case of urgently filling the gap in the size of the market, and players who are eager to achieve quick results are leaving technical factors behind. What do you think of this phenomenon? What are the hidden dangers behind it?
Wen Jiapeng: The phenomenon you mentioned is indeed very common. Many companies or investors who enter the competition do have a mentality of quick success, they feel that the main components of charging pile products have been standardized, and the cost performance of parts and components has also stabilized, so you can refer to the way of saving computers in Zhongguancun, Beijing more than ten years ago to get a piece of the pie. This kind of thinking, from the perspective of product manufacturing and sales, is understandable, after all, we cannot require all companies to do in-depth research and development or re-research and development.
However, for a pile enterprise with a mission and pursuit, whether it is based on self-use or based on research and development for the entire industry, it is necessary to stand at the level of higher industrial clusters such as "vehicle + pile + network" and "pile + storage", and carry out technical research and deployment with the strategic vision of "collaboration" and "empowerment".
As electric vehicles enter a stage of rapid development, its scenario-based applications will become more and more extensive. For charging piles, the requirements for modularization and standardization of products will become higher and higher.
From the perspective of products, basic modular technology, basic materials, processing and manufacturing processes, equipment operation reliability and stability, etc., these things urgently need all kinds of enterprises to show craftsmanship, continuous cultivation and refinement in practice.
From the perspective of supply and demand or operation, with the advancement of batch and large-scale layout of charging piles, how to optimize the charging network of a city, and then achieve the balance of supply and demand for the entire charging? What kind of digital means should pile enterprises use to solve various problems in operation?
In other words, the "technology toolbox" that provides charging services for electric vehicles should include both basic and operational technologies. As I said earlier, pile companies should be fully aware that charging piles will become an important connector across the two major fields of "transportation" and "energy", and without the support of excellent core technology, it is impossible to eat the bowl of future market demand.
Even if the electric car goes to the countryside and goes to the third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities, it does not mean that the low-end version of the charging pile can be used to "race the horse". On the contrary, the more the sinking market, the higher the requirements for the product safety and operation intelligence of the charging pile. Imagine when your charging piles are scattered in the vast third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities or rural areas, how to provide efficient remote services? In addition, the more the sinking market, the more capacitors required to invest in the construction of charging stations are also a greater challenge than in first- and second-tier cities, if your manufacturing, investment and operation of charging piles do not have the most basic flexible management capabilities, not a strong power grid, constantly increasing the capacitance just demand, may strangle your neck, how to talk about this emerging market?
Fifth, which pile enterprises are suitable for borrowing ships to go to sea to pan for gold
Zheng Chunfeng: Recently, everyone has paid great attention to charging piles going to sea. Based on the common demand for carbon neutrality, the European Union and the United States are also increasing the layout of the electric vehicle industry, and they are also facing the problem of charging pile gaps, and from the pre-judgment data released by some professional institutions, their market gap is simply sky-high. Because of this, many people feel that there must be a lot of room to go overseas. I don't think this judgment is wrong. What do you think of the overseas opportunities of Chinese pile companies or charging service clusters?
Wen Jiapeng: According to the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers, by 2030, about 6.8 million public charging piles will be needed throughout the EU, compared with only 374,000 in the EU. Before 2020, the United States was relatively slow in the process of electrification, but now it is also accelerating, I see a set of relevant data: the United States in 2019, 2020, 2021 vehicle pile ratio of 18.8, 17.6, 17.7 respectively, with the landing of the new policy of state subsidies, their charging pile construction boom is also coming.
China's charging pile exports have ushered in a rare opportunity. But how to go overseas and dig for gold? Doing it alone may not be the best strategy and path. I think that our pile enterprises and pile products should accompany the entire ecology of electric vehicles going to sea to achieve the goal of overseas nuggets.
As the fastest growing industry in China in recent years and relatively complete in the industrial chain with independent intellectual property rights, the export capacity and bargaining power of electric vehicles have been obvious to all. Electric vehicles are exported, charging piles are naturally indispensable, after all, this is a product with strong matching of electric vehicles, indispensable.
After walking through many places, we found that not to mention the high-tech product of electric vehicles, even if the technical threshold and manufacturing cost are relatively low charging piles, it is impossible to get it in many countries and regions. And isn't this precisely our opportunity to go to sea?
I think that the overseas operation of China's charging pile can refer to the model of China's high-speed rail going to sea, that is, we export not only a tangible charging pile product, but also the necessary management mode and operation optimization in the process of energy product output. This can not only improve the overall competitiveness of China's electric vehicle products, but also enhance the stickiness of overseas ecological chain enterprises and electric vehicle users. In this way, the entire charging pile industry can take root and develop overseas healthily and sustainably.
Zheng Chunfeng: One last small question. We found that every time the industrial policy blows hot air, there will be a lot of investors rushing in; Many of them have been hurt because they have followed the policy too closely and expected too much of the idealization of the policy. At present, on the one hand, the ownership of electric vehicles has indeed increased, and on the other hand, the incentive policy is more precise. From a rational point of view, what kind of follow-up posture and investment rhythm do you think investors should maintain to achieve real money?
Wen Jiapeng: I think everyone can see the turning space and real opportunities in this industry now. Next, the only thing to do well is a question of method and path.
In terms of path, I think any investor needs to have a clear positioning of its own capabilities and a pragmatic judgment on how far it can be combined with the electric vehicle industry. In other words, what are the technical advantages and resource advantages of your company? If you can't find your place in industrialization in the complicated information and diversified industrialization policies, the failure rate will definitely be greater. You know, after the exploration and breakthrough of various pioneers in the past ten years, the blind areas and traps of the market have been relatively clear, and everyone has begun to "play the card" next, and the stage of fishing in troubled waters has passed.
Another is that enterprises should put the accumulation of core competitiveness capabilities as the top priority. After finding your positioning, all that remains is to dig out your core capabilities. For example, after my product enters the market, it is fighting for technical ability and integration ability? Or operational service capabilities? These must be clarified.
In general, I think the space of the entire charging pile industry is very large, and the services required by the market are also diversified. As long as you find a reasonable point, and then accumulate and core power along this origin, there will definitely be a lot of development opportunities.