A few big news this weekend, just show:
There is no "cooling-off period" at all, no one wants to delay anyone, and the weekend is directly arranged.
On our side is the Bureau of Statistics, and the Ministry of Finance "worked overtime" over the weekend and released a series of shocking data.
The data that seems to be a fight accidentally exposed two facts:
1. The phenomenon of "blood pumping" in state-owned enterprises is very obvious!
2. The decline in profits of private enterprises above designated size is very obvious.
Why are the profits of state-owned enterprises increasing?
The reason is not complicated, think of last year's international oil price of 120+ US dollars / barrel, our oil price 8 yuan / liter, now the international oil price 72 US dollars / barrel, our oil price 7.45 yuan / liter.
In addition, how much has the ladder electricity increased?
.......
This naturally leads to the inference that the decline in profits of private enterprises above designated size is very obvious.
For foreign companies, since they do not make money, then naturally they will pat their ass and leave.
For private companies, since it is difficult to make money, then reduce the scale, reduce costs and increase efficiency (caiyuan rolling).
Therefore, we have seen so much recent "debunking" news about "optimizing employees".
Ali said: "We are just optimizing, and we will recruit 15,000 people this year," and Wanda also stood up and shouted: "We don't have large-scale layoffs!" ”
Is it possible that "layoffs" are true, but it is also true that propaganda "layoffs" are not allowed?
Combining the two, we will find the necessary conditions to make the market bullish: liquidity, confidence, expectation and stability, it is no longer three missing one, but one lacking three...
02
Of course, the US side is not to be outdone, and this weekend news came that "the US debt agreement has been preliminarily agreed, and the Senate and House of Representatives are about to vote."
In other words, judging that the US debt will not default this time, raising or suspending the debt ceiling is almost inevitable.
For no other reason, the US debt really defaulted, which will be a great benefit to us.
You might say that the less than $900 billion we hold has shrunk in value.
Yes, but as long as we can hold the US debt until it matures, the United States will return it to us with interest.
You will ask, what should the United States do if it "defaults on its debts"?
After all, the cornerstone of the modern financial system is "credit", and a default on U.S. bonds will seriously hit the international credibility of the dollar, which will have a direct consequence:
The dollar cannot use its dominant position to harvest the global market, so the trade between countries will find a more suitable currency exchange mechanism.
And we happen to be:
The world's largest trading country and the largest producer of gold determine that the RMB has the opportunity to better play the role of the world currency in the future.
Based on this, as long as we insist on holding U.S. bonds to maturity, the United States will "pay" whenever it is clear-headed.
If the U.S. can't pay its debts in cash, then it can be done, and the U.S. can pay off its debts by selling goods and advanced technology.
At this time, it is a good time for us to go to the bottom of the United States.
Of course, there is another possibility that the United States will print a lot of money to pay off its debt, but the result is:
The dollar depreciates and the people appreciate.
For us, RMB assets will usher in a definite upward opportunity, but it has to be said that this will bring certain pressure to export enterprises.
In summary, the default of US bonds has an impact on us in the short term, but in the long run, it is positive.
Based on this, we will find that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are at odds on policy, but for now it is only dog-eat-dog, and both parties want to share a little more interests.
As long as Biden is not "senile dementia", the US debt will most likely not default, giving us a "big surprise".
Then "U.S. bonds are about to reach an agreement", whether it is to continue to extend or raise the ceiling, it means to the capital market:
Drain the fluidity.
Because the US Treasury will increase the issuance of Treasury bonds, it will make the market short of money, after all, there is a guaranteed income of Treasury bonds, who is willing to go to the stock market to fight for their lives.
What's more, the U.S. stock market has stood at an all-time high like 4200, which can be predicted:
1. In the short term, the US stock market is likely to face a significant correction!
2. The real reversal of U.S. stocks depends on when to stop shrinking the balance sheet, and then there is a possible rate cut.
03
So how does the "lang" of Wall Street make money?
Over the weekend we saw news like this:
The description of the press release is "to implement the expansion of the opening of the futures market to the outside world".
Translate - the door to financial markets is opening, after all, Morgan Stanley got the "ticket" to public and private funds as early as the beginning of this year.
The view of many experts and big Vs is that this is a signal that China-M relations have begun to slowly improve.
But in fact, I think it is: a compromise.
It's like a husband and wife arguing, and in the end both parties "take a step back and the wind is calm."
Of course, Morgan came to make money, so is the "wolf of Wall Street" more fierce, or is our "dog beater" more ruthless?
We'll have answers soon.
04
In fact, the news that broke my defense the most this weekend was: Hubei Finance Bureau publicly published a "collection"....
We will find the situation one-sided "crying poverty"!
What the hell is "Crying children have milk?" Or do you get a "vaccination" first?
But on the other hand, Pinduoduo rose sharply on Friday, by nearly 19%.
The key to this phenomenon is that the first-quarter results released before the market exceeded expectations, and the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of Pinduoduo reached 8.1 billion yuan, or about 1.179 billion US dollars, more than doubled year-on-year.
Pinduoduo explained that the willingness of the consumer market continues to increase, and the purchasing power has been further released.
But if we combine the breakdown data released by the Bureau of Statistics, we will find that this is a "consumption downgrade".
05
Against the background of such "external worries and internal troubles", Wu Xiaobo stood up and shouted: "To save domestic demand, first save the property market!" ”
In addition, many financial and economic "bricks" began to pave the way for public opinion, saying that what "epic bailout" is about to be greatly relaxed, or 5 trillion special treasury bonds! ”
To such a big V, I can only say that this is a "traitor"!
The simple truth is that to save domestic demand, first enrich its people.
The people are rich and have enough purchasing power, so naturally you don't need to urge them to buy. Instead of constantly thinking about taking money out of the pockets of the people, without money and without confidence, no matter how much you urge it, it is useless.
To save the housing market, the first step is to first reduce the interest rate of existing housing loans, and give profits to the people, and this part of the concession and the purchasing power released will allow wealth to circulate in society again in the form of consumption.
I started talking about the interest rate of the existing mortgage in October 2021, and I said it for a year and eight months, and I haven't seen a single hair plucked so far.
To save the housing market, the first step is to allow appropriate house price reductions, let profits, the threshold is low, naturally someone will get on the car; It is allowed to appropriately reduce land prices and give profits to housing enterprises, and housing enterprises are willing to work only if they have profits.
None of these are done, just blindly "give you the qualification to buy a house", "buy a Farri to give 50 yuan coupons", "let the financial bailout the market" has a hammer.
That's called bailout, that's the money of the people, cheap.
How dropping, cut off the thighs of the people, and Mr. Huang connected the legs?
"Wu Xiaobo" speaks for capital, in essence: making money is their own, they have to pay the price, let the whole people bear it!
Plus, big looseness is certainly to be expected, but be warned: not right now!
Because the Fed's interest rate hike has not officially ended, the expectation of a rate cut will only form in the fall! If the dollar cuts interest rates in November, China can ease a lot!
That is to say, at least half a year of suffering!
06
In fact, the stock market is piled up with money, and commodities are piled up by demand.
Especially in the context of the "Fed debt" problem, our "weak domestic demand" here, and the blood of central enterprises, we will find that no matter which market, it is not suitable for long at the moment.
The only exception: precious metals.
In addition, this weekend, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stood up and said, "Actively support central enterprises to fully connect with the capital market." ”
Correspondingly, the leaders of the China Securities Regulatory Commission spoke at the annual meeting of Chinese listed companies, "promoting the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system." ”
However, what caught my concern was that the CSRC's public statement "did not mention the protection of small and medium-sized investors" again.
What does this mean?
Zhongte estimated that he was hammered too hard! Want to come out again to stabilize a wave?
I will not comment on this, but I still want to remind everyone that "don't lick blood at the knife's edge" is meaningless.
But I'm not asking you to "clear your position."
A share in this position, you can scold it, but choosing to leave the market now is really not the work of the wise.
After all, we still did a lot of work to make the index look good.
For example, the index has been adjusted again, and public information shows that "the samples of the SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, Science and Technology 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000 and other indexes have been adjusted, and it will take effect after the market closes on June 9." ”
I looked at it and basically kicked out the falling stocks and added the rising ones.
With such hard work, the index has not stabilized, is it excessive?
In addition, after we took the lead in "squatting", the panic was basically released, and coupled with the news that all aspects of the weekend were close to "ease", Big A may enter a volatile "bottoming period".
Translate, the A shares in this position, you can scold it, but choose this will leave the market, it is really not the work of the wise.
So what do we do now?
I suggest that the stock index market maintain dynamic positions, chase up and kill to lock in profits, and then hang a part of short orders for hedging, and finally, make a pot of tea, and then sit by the window, wait for him to thunder, watch the rainstorm.
Good wishes, I wish you Xie Xiaobai a wealth freedom.
Such a high-quality blogger, do not like and follow?
Like indicates attitude, looking at it shows approval, and forwarding shows support