With F1 in Monaco this weekend following the cancellation of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, can Red Bull continue to rule? But in Monaco, not sure.
1. Does Alonso really have a chance to win?
Red Bull is the fastest car on the track, there's no denying that, but Aston Martin's victory is not unthinkable.
The characteristics of the Monte Carlo circuit doomed Saturday to qualify, and although the RB19 took four pole positions in the first five races, the aerodynamic and DRS dominance of Red Bull Monaco will hardly be felt on the track. The RB19 also has difficulty heating up the front tyres, resulting in wheels locking easily, possibly due to the car's front anti-dive suspension interfering with the driver's braking feel.
If Aston Martin wants to cross the finish line first in Monaco, a series of conditions must be met. First, Alonso needs to beat two Red Bulls in qualifying on Saturday, as well as a Ferrari driven by Leclerc. Given Perez's "crazy" performance in street racing, this feat could be difficult to achieve.
Then, even if Alonso takes pole position, it's time to see how Aston Martin's strategists perform, with Red Bull's strategy team currently considered the best in F1.
Finally, it's time to look at Red Bull's set-up of the car, RB19 can sacrifice a little tail speed in exchange for downforce, Red Bull was found to be using the same rear wing used in Monaco last year in the pit area. In this way, Aston Martin's advantage in slow corners may be drastically reduced.
2. Can a major upgrade from Mercedes make a difference?
According to images from the pits, Verstappen brought a complete change in appearance in Monaco, a completely redesigned traditional side box, and a modified front suspension. This is what Toto Wolf has previously called "major surgery".
Can the revolutionized Mercedes W14B bring competitiveness to Mercedes? Toto Wolff believes that a 0.5-second improvement in a lap in the middle of the season is unthinkable.
Data collection after major upgrades will be more complicated for the nature of the Monaco circuit, and for this reason Ferrari left its major upgrades to Barcelona.
3. Can de Vries shut up skeptics?
Monaco's spotlight will also find Alpha Tauri driver Nick de Vries, who has won here twice in F2.
Given his age and experience, he is a 2019 F2 champion and 2021 FE world champion, and given his excellent performance at Monza last year, he could shine in Monaco and beyond.
But is it possible? The opening five performances were frustrating, and even Marko had already shown him a "yellow card". De Vries made multiple mistakes in Azerbaijan and crashed in Miami that ruined his race, sparking rumors that he could be replaced by Ricciardo, which were quickly denied by the team.
If de Vries doesn't show competitiveness in the next few games, he could be replaced. Marko has publicly stated that Liam Lawson and Ayumi Iwasa are De Vries' first replacements.