May 21 is the birthday of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian army has completely controlled Artyomovsk (known as "Bakhmut"), although Zelensky claims that the Ukrainian army is still in Bakhmut, but Shoigu has received a big gift.
After the Russian side claimed to have taken Bakhmut, the confidence of the United States in the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army was obviously hit. According to a TASS report on the 21st, US President Biden said on the same day that the United States cannot know exactly what results the Ukrainian counteroffensive can achieve.
The Ukrainian army has lost too much living forces in Bakhmut, but the Russian army can breathe a sigh of relief and concentrate on dealing with the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Wunan, for the Ukrainian army, it is indeed a big challenge to gnaw the deep echelon defense line built by the Russian army for a long time. Whether the Russian-Ukrainian war situation can be reversed depends on the results of the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive. If the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army does not satisfy the West, the situation in Kiev will be more difficult, and the signs of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine are not impossible.
Although NATO has long claimed to be ready for a protracted war, the plan cannot keep up with the changes, and no one can now be sure how long the war will last. Once Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement, at least in exchange for a period of peace, therefore, Russia and Ukraine are very cautious about signing a ceasefire agreement, the time has not come, Russia and Ukraine have not yet taken a step to sign a ceasefire agreement.
In the Middle East, however, ceasefire agreements in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are so ineffective that Israeli and Palestinian militants often fight again shortly after the agreement is signed.
On the 13th local time, Israel and the Palestinian Jihad Organization (Jihad) reached a ceasefire agreement, which officially took effect at 22 o'clock on the 13th, and Palestinians also took to the streets to celebrate the ceasefire.
However, only a few days have passed, and the Israeli side has made another dangerous move.
On the 21st local time, Israeli National Security Minister Ben Geville, accompanied by the police, entered the disputed area - the Temple Mount in the Old City of Jerusalem, which immediately triggered Palestinian condemnation. Ben Guvere has publicly stated that "the threat of Hamas cannot stop us". It can be said that Israel's actions are full of provocation.
Palestine warned Israel that playing with fire would have serious consequences. However, Ben Guerville is already entering this sensitive area for the second time this year, and he is certainly aware of the dangers involved. This cannot help but make people suspect that Israel is deliberately provoking Palestinian armed forces, and Ben Gerville's naming of Hamas is even more "leading to war".
From Israel's point of view, it is not necessarily unwise for Israel to act with its tail between its legs in the current situation.
First of all, although the United States does not intend to give up the Middle East, the strategic focus of the United States is not in the Middle East, even if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends, the United States has other more important targets, Israel cannot wait for the United States to shift its focus to the Middle East and support Israel;
Secondly, the Arab League sent Syria a "shot in the arm", and Israel received an unfavorable signal. A few days ago, the declaration draft of the Arab League summit pointed out that the Arab League hopes that Syria's return will help maintain Syria's territorial integrity. Israel and Syria have experienced a long and vicious struggle for the Golan Heights, and the Arab League supports Syria, and the pressure on Israel has risen sharply;
Third, as Israel's mortal rival, Iran is steadily accumulating military superiority in the face of the United States and Israel in the Middle East, and Israel's current weakness may not be able to exchange Iran's indulgence, while Israel still has the ability to fight, Israel may need to seize the time to obtain practical benefits for itself as much as possible;
In addition, just a few days ago, Israeli Foreign Minister Elie Cohen suddenly showed favor to Russia, declaring that although Israel morally supports Ukraine, it will consider Russia's influence in the Middle East. The Israeli Foreign Minister's statement is true, Israel really needs to be concerned about Russia and does not want to offend Russia. Well, Russia has always supported the Syrian Assad government, and Israel also needs to carefully consider how to deal with Syria.
In this way, Israel needs to take care of the priorities, strengths and weaknesses, and who should Israel do next? Israel's "provocation" against Hamas cannot help but make people suspect that Hamas will become Israel's next target.