"Fast and Furious 10" has been officially released in China, as the hottest Hollywood blockbuster in recent times, not only domestic theater operators have high hopes for this film, but even Hollywood film industry observers are paying close attention to the film's box office performance in China.
It's a pity that from the current box office performance, it can only be said to be reluctant.
The film was officially released in China on Wednesday, with a box office of 19 million at zero o'clock, and a box office of 80 million on the opening day, a cumulative total of just over 100 million, while Maoyan's prediction for the total box office of the film is 837 million.
Although this data may be slightly adjusted as the release progresses, it is basically difficult to exceed 1 billion box office in the end.
And you know, the last "Fast and Furious 9", even if it was released during the epidemic (May 2021), had a box office of 1.392 billion.
But now, but after the epidemic, the box office results after the complete release.
Of course, this is not just a problem with Fast and Furious 10.
For example, there are articles in Hollywood analyzing this matter, and the article from Indiewire is also somewhat enlightening.
They say that Universal Pictures' "Fast and Furious 10" is not a make-or-break movie for the North American box office.
In the best-case scenario, the film could be third at the North American box office in the North American opening weekend in May, reaching $60 million to $70 million (far less than the previously released "Guardians of the Galaxy 3").
However, the box office situation of the "Fast and Furious" series has always been special, and the previous films of this series have also performed normally at the box office in North America, and will achieve greater success overseas. In the past three fast-burning works, 77%-82% of the box office came from the international market, especially in the Chinese market, and a single film can reach a box office of 3.4 billion US dollars.
We can also learn about the previous "Fast and Furious 9" ↓
And "Fast and Furious 8" ↓
and "Fast and Furious 7" ↓
From the data of the above three films, it can be seen that the North American box office of the last few films in this series is only one-fifth or even about one-sixth of the total global box office.
By the time of "Fast and Furious 8" and "Fast and Furious 9", the box office of Chinese mainland even surpassed the North American box office and became the number one box office in the global market of this series.
Therefore, the analysis article also called the "Fast and Furious" series one of Hollywood's best-performing blockbuster series in overseas markets in the past decade.
With such a name, it is natural to have high hopes.
In particular, "Fast and Furious 10" is also invested in blood. According to media reports, the budget of the film must be at least $250 million, and according to Wikipedia, the budget of the film is even $340 million (unverified).
Anyway, no matter which number, this is a pretty amazing investment, so if you want to return the book, you must have a huge response on a global scale and form a very large box office revenue, which is why they feel that the film must have a strong box office performance overseas (especially in the Chinese market).
At the same time, they also realize that since the epidemic, the box office revenue of Hollywood movies overseas has been in a state of decline.
According to statistics, between 2017 and 2019, about two-thirds of the box office revenue of Hollywood big-box studios came from overseas, of which the international share of box office of the top 10 big studio films was between 63% and 66% on average.
By 2022, that percentage dropped to 59%. This year, that number is 51 percent, which means it's basically half and half.
Then look at a set of box office data.
In 2022, the US domestic box office was $7.4 billion – about 28% of the total global box office ($26 billion). This compares to 27% in 2018; The figure for 2019 is 29%. In other words, the proportion of North American box office and global box office sales has not changed significantly.
However, since the epidemic, only two films have accounted for more than 63% of the overseas box office, namely "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Fantastic Beasts: Dumbledore's Mystery", which was rare before the epidemic (many can reach more than 63%).
It is worth noting that in the past, comic book adaptations that were popular all over the world, such as Marvel or DC's superhero blockbusters, could account for 65% or more of the overseas box office, but now they have fallen below 60%.
At the same time, last year's hit Hollywood blockbuster "Top Gun: The Lone Ranger" had a cumulative box office of $1.49 billion, but its overseas box office revenue was actually only about half of the total box office (more than $700 million sold overseas).
Even the recent box office hit "Super Mario Bros. Movie" has repeatedly broken box office records in North America, but his overseas box office proportion is only 56% (also relying on local power); For animated films, it used to reach 67% or more.
What the above series of data indicates.
This shows that under the premise that the North American domestic box office and the global total box office ratio have not changed significantly, the proportion of Hollywood films in the box office of other countries has decreased significantly.
In other words, audiences from other countries are no longer so obsessed with Hollywood movies.
The article believes that this is due to the closure caused by the epidemic and various release delays, forming a series of fluctuation effects. Foreign audiences now watch more non-Hollywood films, especially locally produced films that usually resume release earlier, are newer and more popular.
This is particularly true in China, where several locally produced films have grossed more than 4 billion in the past three years.
Among the top 10 box office in Chinese film history, 6 films were released after 2021, and only one movie came from Hollywood, that is, "Avengers 4" in 2019.
But in reality, this is even more pronounced this year.
So far this year, only two imported films have entered the top ten at the box office, and the box office has actually not exceeded 1 billion, one is Japan's "Suzuya Journey", and the other is "Avatar: The Way of Water" released late last year.
If "Fast and Furious 10" has enough stamina, it will still enter the top ten in the short term. Of course, it is also short-term, because the next summer file in July and August, as well as the National Day file in October, and the New Year file in December, there are still a large number of domestic films waiting to be released.
With less than 1 billion box office revenue, it is actually difficult to occupy a place on the domestic annual box office list.
Therefore, this year's Hollywood movies may be even worse in overseas markets (especially the Chinese market).
Anyway, this article analyzes it, that is, to say that the international influence of Hollywood blockbusters, especially in China, is obviously not as good as before.
At the same time, in fact, they still hope that this quick series, which has created many box office myths in the past, hopes that this series can re-show the international influence of Hollywood blockbusters.
After all, the film has now been officially released in major countries and regions around the world, as a blockbuster series that has been strong at the overseas box office in the past, the film's overseas box office performance will also become a benchmark for Hollywood films' global box office dominance.
And believes that if Universal Pictures can get its wish, it will greatly help the health of the international box office.
Of course, just from the perspective of China's box office performance in the past few days, I am afraid that it will be difficult for them to realize this wish.
Although, I think Hollywood observers, just from the box office performance of this film, I am afraid it is still a little early.
However, I have indeed seen such a trend, and I believe that many other friends have felt this situation.
Probably, step by step, there will really be a change.
So, do you agree with them?
And, what do you think will happen to the future Hollywood movies in China?