Rhino Entertainment Original
Text|Nam Rumin Editor|Park Fang
The May 1st file is already close at hand, and due to the extreme temptation of the 5-day long holiday, more than 10 new films have been piled up.
It seems that the collective pile of new films is trying to use the sea of pieces to gain the market, but if you look closely, there are actually huge risks in this year's May 1st file, and such a dense number of new films is obviously not something that this long holiday can carry. From another perspective, it can be seen that the industry's dependence on high-quality schedules has reached an unprecedented level. It can be concluded that in the next May 1st file, most of the new films will not have a good time.
Seriously bunched May 1st gear
Judging from the historical performance of the May 1st file, it is obvious that it does not belong to the top big schedule, and there is a certain gap with the Spring Festival file and the National Day file, and in terms of the ability to attract new films, it can still be guaranteed in the second echelon. It may not be able to run out of the big dark horse, but projects that get 1 billion + still happen from time to time, but in previous years, there has never been such a bunching situation this year.
The most dangerous places are safe, and the safest places can be dangerous, and the same is true for the film market. The real high-quality explosive models will explode as scheduled wherever they are placed, and those whose own quality is insufficient and want to help through large traffic in large schedules are often very miserable. Facing the 5-day long holiday, it can be said that most of the film parties are a little carried away and even lose their minds.
13 new films, yes, this is the number of new films in the next May 1st file, of which there are as many as 9 with a certain sales and appeal. Such an involuted schedule distribution is obviously not good for each film, and this kind of hilarious finalization arrangement will eventually lead to each film being difficult to gain a foothold and fail to meet the established expectations. You can imagine how tragic the next May Day fight should be.
(Data as of April 18, 2023 at 16:00)
Let's take a brief look at the next film list, from "So Many Years" temporarily changed to May 1st, and then to the sudden airborne landing of "Check the Wind", there has been a serious "excess" situation in May 1st Gear. You should know that during the past three years, the words that appeared most often were "missing items" and "cold". But such a deformed rebound in May 1st gear is indeed a bit overwhelming.
What determines the height of the market is never the number of films, but the quality and volume of a single film. Attempts to revitalize the market through quantity have always been futile. Quantity has never been a sign of recovery, especially in this year's May 1st file, many films of the same type are clustered, failing to take into account the market, nor from the perspective of the audience's actual viewing choices.
From the perspective of another more critical indicator, the pile of these dozen new films, it is difficult to achieve profitability in the end, more than 3, or even less. The basis is that it seems that the May 1st gear is very lively, but it seems to lack real volume and quality, once the market runs away, there is not only a huge differentiation, but even due to the lack of the blessing of large-scale projects, the entire market can not be pushed up.
If its own internal volume is terrifying enough, then the harsh environment outside directly makes the May First gear greatly devalued. From a macro point of view, this year's May 1st file is obviously no longer a high-quality choice, and the blind setting of the film side is not the optimal solution at all. That's right, what is mentioned here is the enormous pressure given by the introduction of blockbusters.
The fifth first gear that was caught between the front and back
It is already a lot of pressure for more than a dozen domestic films and new films to fight each other, but the encirclement before and after the introduction of the May 1st file is the greater dilemma. Although the unique protection system will make it impossible for imported films to enter the May 1st file to participate in the competition, the release of many imported films before and after has determined that this year's May 1st file almost lost the possibility of creating miracles.
The phenomenal blockbuster "Slam Dunk" released on April 20 is undoubtedly the real competitor of the pile of new May 1st films. Needless to say, "Slam Dunk" has become a post-80s biblical existence, and will have the explosive power of a mountain roaring tsunami. The current cumulative pre-sale of the film has reached 80 million, and this pre-sale result alone will beat most of the domestic films on May 1st.
(Data as of April 18, 2023 at 16:00)
At present, "Slam Dunk" Maoyan wants to see the cumulative breakthrough of 1 million mark, and will eventually get the level of Maoyan wants to see the historical TOP8. And Taotao tickets have also obtained more than 700,000+ want to see. According to the current pre-sales situation and the amazing quality of 9.2 points opened by Douban, "Slam Dunk" is very likely to break the box office record of a Japanese film in the mainland just created by "Journey to the Bell Bud".
The biggest problem is that "Slam Dunk" is only 9 days away from the May 1st file, and its box office trend and the position touched by the stamina are bound to spread to the core position of the May 1st file. Considering such competitive competitors, those new domestic films in May 1st should tremble. This is really a phenomenal and national-level IP, and there is even the possibility of impacting 1 billion+.
Once "Slam Dunk" enters the May 1st gear and competes with domestic films, the advantages of that dimensionality reduction blow will be revealed, not only seizing the space that is already stretched thin, but also competing for the share of the stock market as much as possible. The bigger problem is that the May 1st gear is a situation where there is an ambush before and then there are chasing soldiers. In addition to Slam Dunk's grabbing space, there are more enemies behind.
Just the day after the May 1st show, Marvel's annual blockbuster "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" was released. As we all know, Marvel will leave its C position in the first week of May for the most important films, and this year it will be occupied by "Guardians of the Galaxy 3", which will be the first level of the new film of the fifth year. Once the quality of the new film is dropped, then the holiday is over, and it will encounter the fatal slash of "Guardians of the Galaxy 3".
This knife goes down, basically cut off half of it. Fortunately, "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" is not large, not the kind of 1 billion + level big project, but also can leave a breath for the new film of May 1st. And the following annual introduction film seed player "Fast and Furious 10" is undoubtedly the real killer. The film is sitting on May 17, which means that this year's May 1st new film has a maximum of 20 days of life cycle.
As a champion of imported films this year, "Fast and Furious 10" has absolute popularity and appeal. Once "Fast and Furious 7" and "Fast and Furious 8" are record-breaking existences, with supreme status in China, and Marvel's "Avengers" series are the two highest-grossing IPs in Hollywood in the mainland today.
The knife of "Fast and Furious 10" is far less gentle than "Guardians of the Galaxy 3", it will completely kill these new films in May 1st, completely without leaving a living mouth, it obviously has this volume. Based on this, the trend of being surrounded and suppressed in the May 1st file has been highlighted, and even unable to break the situation, which is the dilemma faced by these more than a dozen domestic films this year.
This kind of front and back situation, the bunching of the May 1st gear is very incomprehensible, it should be to decompress the schedule, but the opposite is true, I believe that the market feedback at that time will explain everything. Of course, wealth is in danger, quality is equal to everything, and I expect that the new film of May 1st can kill the dark horse and kill under the siege of many imported films.