【Text/Observer Network Columnist Mo Tiancheng, Wu Zhe】
As early as last year's US election, Trump often played the "China card", saying that China would prefer Biden to take office and Biden would be more friendly to China. Is this really the case? Now that the Biden administration's ruling team has taken shape, we can also have a preliminary prediction of Biden's China strategy.
In terms of the future development trend of Sino-US relations, Trump's current tough stance on China is supported by both parties, and this tough policy will not change much during the Biden administration. However, the way the two administrations implement and implement this approach will be very different — if the Trump administration is provoking China with "Muay Thai", then the Biden team is likely to achieve the same goal through "judo". In the future, the Biden team will continue to engage in tough dialogue with China in public, but it is foreseeable that they will also make some efforts to ease tensions between China and the United States in private.
In Biden's first year in office, there were enough domestic problems in the United States (Photo: Xinhua News Agency)
The biden administration's first priority in its first year has been to address the crisis in the United States, including defeating COVID-19, stimulating a V-shaped recovery in the domestic economy, coordinating interracial relations, and working with other countries to mitigate global climate change. If, in the first year of his term, the Biden administration fails to control the spread of COVID-19 in the United States and reduce the number of infections and hospitalizations, it is likely that the Republican Party will regain control of Congress in 2022 and cost him and Vice President Harris a future re-election in 2024. In other words, defeating COVID-19 will be his most important focus for the next year.
Looking at Biden's team, he and his main national security officials are mostly European, so in their first year in office, the diplomatic focus will be on Russia, Ukraine, NATO and the European Union, where the previous president has been on hold for a long time, while issues on the Iranian and North Korean sides will be put back on the agenda, and Israel will be on the next target "mission".
The entire Biden &Harris foreign affairs team comes from the Obama/Biden team, and many of them have devoted their lives to the U.S. and soviet issues, so they have deep expertise in the U.S. and the Soviet Union. During the Obama/Biden administration, these people were deeply involved in handling a number of sensitive crises related to Russia.
We can see that with the exception of some African-American team officers, the rest are all of European descent and have family, ancestral, or cultural ties to Europe or the former Soviet Union. In general, it is always easier to deal with things that you are familiar with. As a result, these officials will naturally focus on the EU and Russia.
The United States has always regarded Europe as its back garden, while Russia is a neighbor who always likes to "look at the tiger" on the edge of the fence. But China's recent trade deal with the European Union, combined with the early achievements of its Belt and Road Initiative in countries such as Turkey, Italy and Greece, has alarmed many in the U.S. foreign affairs sector by another "invader" who could enter its "back garden." The Trump administration's failure to completely block Huawei among its European allies presents a daunting challenge to the United States, and the U.S. military-industrial complex will not let the Biden/Harris team ignore the issue. Therefore, the most important thing for the Biden/Harris team is to provide support for a weakened NATO by Trump, prevent weak NATO members from slipping away, and mitigate China's potential threat to U.S. strategic interests in Europe.
Biden personally has made it abundantly clear that restoring strong and trusting relationships with european and North American allies (Canada and Mexico) will be his top foreign policy, a policy he refers to as "America is back." Will Biden's "return to Europe" lead Europe to join the industry that sanctions Chinese companies? We don't know yet. It wouldn't be surprising if Biden tried to use "peer pressure" to limit China's flexibility and influence. Biden prefers to achieve goals with the league and the team, while Trump has chosen the path of a loner.
Therefore, in the next four years, China must be prepared for the variables in the direction of Europe.
As for the more direct China policy, as the Biden team is still focused on domestic affairs such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic crisis, and race relations, there will be no immediate major adjustments unless there are external factors that the Biden administration did not anticipate. Although the United States is currently a bit of a wrangling on Taiwan, Hong Kong or Xinjiang, as long as the Chinese government takes effective measures, most of the problems will remain "background noises."
I often wonder how many American parents from Kentucky, Arkansas, Texas, or other states would agree to have their children fight and die for an area 10,000 kilometers away where Chinese Taiwanese live? Or sprinkle the blood of their children on Hong Kong, a city smaller than Rhode Island, just for some of the internal differences between Chinese there? But if someone goes to Beijing or Guangzhou and asks the young people there if they are ready to fight and die to defend China's sovereignty over Taiwan and Hong Kong, the answer is likely to be "yes." Both Taiwan and Hong Kong are an integral part of China and are recognized by China and the United Kingdom and the rest of the world. Moreover, even if there is a war between China and the United States in these areas, the Chinese military has an important home advantage.
As for Xinjiang, given the fear of Muslims among Americans, their concerns about the Uighur issue in Xinjiang are not motivated by defending their interests, but more by making political excuses against the Chinese government. You might even meet some Americans who complain that China treats Uighurs unfairly, can't spell the word "Uighur" correctly, and can't even find Urumqi on a map of China.
Of course, as far as the US-China tariff issue is concerned, we should not expect that under the management of the Biden administration, Trump's proposed tariffs will quickly fall. For reasons of U.S. national security and commercial interests, pressure on Chinese technology and communications companies is likely to persist.
In this regard, we should be clear that the economic policies of the president of the United States have little to do with what he believes or likes to do, and that the decisions he makes and the policies he makes are usually only a game of political interests, including the American Chamber of Commerce, major defense contractors, and some left- or right-wing extremists who are so vocal that they can get a response when congress votes. At the same time, the president's main advisers are constantly functioning like the yeast in this large bowl of dough. So trying to figure out Biden's policies and decisions about The Chinese economy, especially long-term plans, is as difficult as trying to figure out where a large number of locusts will fly between now and the next few days.
Historically, the U.S. Congress has had little interest in foreign affairs unless there is "pork" or "bacon" (contract, capital, work) that can be taken to the home of a congressional representative or where they need to get votes. For example, China is an important issue for members of the Midwest Congress because of their agricultural exports. At the same time, the loss of manufacturing jobs in the "Rust Belt" region since globalization has made China a sensitive topic in the eyes of members of Parliament in the "Rust Belt". In this sense, most U.S. presidents have more freedom in foreign affairs than they do on domestic issues, but due to presidential term constraints, high turnover rates of key presidential advisers, and the ebb and flow of various lobby groups, in the long run, all presidential policies (including economic policy) are nothing more than a series of responses to current (domestic and foreign) crises, initiatives that take place at a given time due to political campaign needs.
Overall, the Biden/Harris team was able to work with China in a more pragmatic and civilized way simply because no more external factors forced them to take more extreme action. Of course, to appease the Republican Party and its extreme right-wing followers, as well as the Pentagon hawks, and left-wing democrats, especially trade unionists and human rights activists, they must continue to engage in hard-line discussions about China in public. However, the Biden/Harris team will also welcome opportunities to be cautious in private and to improve relations with China. At the same time, they will also want to cancel Trump's anti-China policy and trade war policy, as long as this action does not make Biden look like he is "weak" toward China, just as Trump has been criticized for Russia. Biden is well aware that Republicans will find excuses, especially the "weakness on China", to undermine his term and his 2024 campaign.
On Jan. 6, Trump supporters stormed Capitol Hill. In the future, the Biden administration's China policy will still face extremist pressure. (Photo: Xinhua News Agency)
Under pressure from U.S. commercial and military interests, the Biden/Harris administration and the U.S. Congress are likely to continue to impose restrictions on China's technological progress to curb China's competitiveness and military expansion. The good news, however, is that despite the continued criticism and temptation of opponents during Biden's campaign, he merely referred to China as a "competitor" and did not agree to or endorse any negative allegations made against China by the Trump administration. For now, he wants to leave some room for manoeuvre on this issue and see if he can create a more harmonious atmosphere between China and the United States in the future.
In 2021, China has about a year to re-engage in "rebuilding" U.S.-China relations without being overreacted by the actions of some political extremists or "arsonists" in the United States.
At present, the Chinese government has adopted a pragmatic attitude towards sensitive issues. For example, the Chinese government has reacted very wisely and reasonably to the attendance of Siu Mei-chin, chief representative of TECRO (Taiwan's Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Taipei, USA), to the inauguration ceremony of Biden and Harris on January 20, 2021. The inauguration was a public event, and anyone with an admission ticket was eligible to attend, so the Biden administration did not recognize Representative Siu Meiqin as a member of a foreign diplomatic mission and did not treat her as a member. The Chinese government correctly measured and handled the incident, and the result was that it neither became international news nor received more attention.
In the future, the two governments still have many opportunities to build a more solid foundation for future cooperation between the two governments in a more active and productive way, without paying more political costs. In the areas of global COVID-19 control, climate change control, international counterterrorism enforcement, and disaster relief in developing countries, the Chinese government can participate in and assist the United States in achieving early results, building mutual trust, and strengthening bilateral communication. This will provide more breathing space for parties and stakeholders as they deal with more sensitive and complex issues in the future.
If the Biden/Harris team fails to make significant improvements in vaccinations, slowing COVID-19 infections and hospitalization rates in about a year from now, and starts a V-shaped economic recovery in the fall of 2021, after two years of office, the U.S. Congress will revert to the Republican side and President Biden will become a lame duck administration. So if the Chinese government and people can do anything non-political to help Biden slow down the coronavirus, it will lay a firm foundation for a stronger relationship between the two countries and open a door for longer-term cooperation.
We can imagine some promising initiatives, such as allowing and encouraging Chinese private capital to provide financial and technical support for personal epidemic prevention materials and MEDICAL equipment related to COVID-19 treatment in the United States, especially in some economically depressed areas of the United States, to help create jobs. There is also the possibility that when we resume international travel, we can organize some retired teachers of mathematics and science who are proficient in English (through J visas) to volunteer to the United States to help American children in financially difficult and poor areas to "catch up" with the educational status quo that is lagging behind due to online learning in 2020. Once COVID-19 is brought under control, the Biden/Harris team will have to contend with the serious issue of educational inequality, while black, Latino, and Native American children face many difficulties in accessing educational resources due to the digital divide. The plan could operate in reverse Chinese Peace Corp," which could be part of a broader "people-to-people" public diplomacy program between the two nationals.
On the other hand, biden Schumer's V-shaped recovery plan for the U.S. economy is a huge national infrastructure project. However, due to the huge livelihood expenditure in the COVID-19 stimulus policy, the funding for this infrastructure project will be very scarce. The Chinese government could use a portion of its annual purchases of U.S. government bonds and securities to reallocate the municipal bonds that finance these projects. Municipal bonds use physical assets to guarantee investments, their returns will be higher, and it will also bring the goodwill of local governments in the United States.
Of course, it would also be beneficial to ease U.S.-China relations if there is a selective and targeted exemption from restrictions on U.S. capital (both public and private) investment in U.S. real estate projects. These exemptions should be concentrated only in local and federally approved "affordable housing" development and construction projects. China could benefit from such projects, requiring the deployment of large quantities of Chinese building materials (in line with U.S. standards), as well as helping Chinese suppliers enter the U.S. market and build brands.
More realistically, we can also re-place some of the more successful Sino-US cooperation projects in the past in the "people-to-people" diplomacy plan to strengthen grassroots ties between the two countries, such as the "Obama 100,000 Strong Plan" and "China National Garden" projects. Both projects were launched during the Obama/Biden administration, and the China team at the time also showed a high degree of support. There is great potential and possibility to reshape U.S.-China relations, but it is only necessary to learn the bitter lessons of the previous "Thousand Talents Plan" and "Confucius Institutes" to build a stronger and more lasting relationship between the two countries.
Although the hostility between the two us party and government is deeply rooted in China, China should not abandon its efforts to enhance Sino-US relations. Never underestimate the potential of the American people's friendly forces with China, just like to make a dough, we only need a little yeast. Sino-US relations will be a protracted war, there will be high mountains and valleys along the way, and the US president with different political aims will continue to come and go, but as China's economic strength increases and good Sino-US relations are maintained, the interests of China will become greater and greater, and do not give up the friendship between the two peoples because of political noise.
(Mr. Mo Tiancheng is the Chairman of the National China Garden Foundation and was the Chief Financial Officer of the U.S. Department of Labor, the Auditor General and Chief Financial Officer of the U.S. Department of the Treasury)
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