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Xue Kaihuan: Will Finland act as a pawn in NATO's anti-Russian campaign?

author:Observer.com

[Text/Observer Network columnist Xue Kaihuan]

On April 4, Finland officially joined NATO, becoming the 31st member of the organization. More than a year after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO's land border with Russia has expanded by more than 1,300 kilometers.

On the other hand, it also means that Finland has broken its military non-alignment policy that has lasted for more than seven decades, adding firewood to the already unstable situation in Europe.

In international relations, the term "Finlandization" is often associated with a policy of neutrality and peaceful coexistence. The term comes from the post-World War II Cold War, when Finland adopted a policy of neutrality and maintained friendly relations with the Soviet Union and the United States without participating in any military alliances. This policy of neutrality was seen as a typical case and was named "Finnishization".

Now, however, Finland has broken this neutrality itself. Choosing to join NATO is undoubtedly challenging Russia's already fragile security nerves, which is not a good option for its national security and economic development.

Well, what is Finland's historical position on joining NATO? Why rush to "join" after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022?

Xue Kaihuan: Will Finland act as a pawn in NATO's anti-Russian campaign?

Finnish Foreign Minister Haavisto submits documents on joining NATO to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken The picture is from the surging image

"It's better to join NATO as soon as possible"

World War II ended with the victory of the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union, and Finland, as an "accomplice" and associate of Nazi Germany, was in a position of virtual defeat after the war, which forced Finland to cede a series of interests to the Soviet Union after the war. In 1944, the Soviet-Finnish armistice was signed, which provided for an armistice ceasefire to be supervised by the Soviet Union. It was a formal peace agreement between the Soviets and Finlands and a prelude to the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty, which confirmed the Soviet Union's establishment of a Soviet military base on the Polkala Peninsula near Helsinki.

A year later, Finland and Russia signed the Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which included mutual defense clauses prohibiting Finland from joining any organization hostile to the Soviet Union. Fears of Finland's alliance with the West were a key factor in the Soviet Union's reservations about Finland's participation in Western European economic cooperation. Against this challenging backdrop, Finland seeks to remain neutral, positioning itself first as a "tool man" and secondly as an independent country. But over time, Finland, free from Tsarist Russia and Soviet rule, went further and further down the path of shaping Finland's national identity, which also led to its rising anti-Soviet and anti-Russian sentiment, laying the groundwork for future NATO membership.

After the end of the Cold War, Finland remained neutral but deepened its cooperation with the West. Finland joined the European Union in 1995, but at the same time continued to claim that the country maintained a policy of military nonalignment. In addition, Finland has also expressed its reluctance to participate in the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) system, claiming that this could create a substantial common defense situation and that Finland is "unwilling to harm its own security interests."

With regard to NATO, Finland has been involved in the NATO Partnership for Peace (PFP) programme since 1994 and has participated in NATO crisis management missions on several occasions. In 1996, it contributed a battalion to the NATO-led Bosnian peacekeeping force. Since 1999, some 7,300 Finns have participated in NATO KFOR operations in Kosovo. From 2002 to 2021, Finnish soldiers fought alongside allied forces in Afghanistan, first in International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operations and then in "Resolute Support Missions." Since then, Finland has participated in NATO's advisory and capacity-building missions in Iraq.

Despite these advances, Finland's foreign policy leadership did not push for formal NATO membership until May 2022. The ostensible reason for this is the lack of strong consensus among Finland's main political parties, and the deeper reason is that Finnish elites are uncertain about whether joining NATO will increase Finland's sense of security due to deteriorating relations with Russia and potentially heightened military tensions in the region, or rather, fear of irritating Russia's sensitive nerves and leading to Russian-Finnish antagonism.

However, since the mid-90s, Finland has said it reserves the possibility of joining NATO (known domestically as the "NATO option") if its security policy environment changes. To increase credibility in this regard, Finland has strengthened its cooperation with NATO and has made its defense forces fully interoperable. Following the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crimean crisis and the fighting in eastern Ukraine, NATO's cooperation with Finland and Sweden deepened. To this end, Finland joined NATO's Enhanced Opportunities Partnership (EOP) in 2015.

It can be seen from this that Finland's accession to NATO was not completely without warning. As early as ten or two decades ago, Finland sent a clear signal to Russia: negative developments in Finland's security policy environment could lead Finland to join NATO. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö confirmed this in 2018. But he also implied that NATO membership is a "card to be held, not played" and "a security weapon in itself," implying a security weapon to deter Russia.

After Russia's full-scale special military operation against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Finns themselves are satisfied with NATO's policy. From 2014 to 2021, support for the option of formally joining NATO ranged from 19 to 30 percent in Finnish national polls, which is not a very high number. But after Russia launched a special military operation, the Finns decided that it was time to use the NATO option. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, polling figures supporting Finland's formal accession to NATO rose to more than 50% for the first time in history. Four months after the war, poll data shows that 79% of Finns support joining NATO, while only 11% oppose it, and the direction of public opinion has been moving towards the pro-Western path.

The Finns themselves summarize the reasons for "accession" mainly as follows:

Russia's military buildup around Ukraine, Moscow's demands for European security and NATO's open-door policy, coupled with a "full-scale invasion" of neighboring countries, have seriously undermined key pillars of Finland's security policy. First, it effectively undermines the previously established good relations with Moscow. The day after the Russian invasion, President Niinistö said, "Now the mask has come off, and only the cold side of war can be seen." ”

Russia's major war has also undermined the second pillar of Finland's security, the well-functioning rules-based international system. In the eyes of Finns, Russia's special military operation has seriously undermined the European security order, bringing instability and insecurity to Finland, a relatively small European country.

Finland's security therefore depends on the two remaining pillars: (i) a strong defense; (ii) integration with the West, including EU membership, NATO cooperation, and close defense cooperation with Sweden, Norway and the United States, as well as European partners, such as the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and the French-led European Intervention Initiative (EI2). In order to consolidate the remaining two pillars, joining NATO naturally became the country's first choice. Other possible options, such as a mutual defense arrangement with Sweden and perhaps even deeper cooperation with the United States, are seen as more complex and uncertain. In other words, "it is better to join NATO as soon as possible."

What does dating in Finland bring?

So, what new situation will Finland's NATO membership bring to the European security situation?

First, Finland's accession adds more than 1,300 kilometers to NATO's external border with Russia – which would be the longest land border between the two sides to date. Second, Finland will bring a large, capable defense force to NATO: Finland is one of the few European countries that has not reduced its military size in the post-Cold War era. Even with active participation in NATO, EU and UN operations, territorial defense remains the number one priority for the Finnish Defense Forces. Active participation in overseas operations is considered to support Finland's own defence by strengthening experience related to joint operations and interoperability.

In light of Russia's special military operation, the Finnish government announced an additional 2 billion euros in early 2023 for military spending, so we cannot underestimate the military strength of this country of only a few million people.

In 2022, Finland's defense budget is about 2% of GDP (5.1 billion euros). Over the past three decades, the annual defense budget has varied between 1.1% and 1.9%, but even in times of economic slowdown, Finland has purchased new military systems and managed to update equipment.

In 1992, after a severe recession in the country, Finland purchased 64 F-18 Hornets from the United States. Last year, Finland decided to completely replace its aging fleet with 64 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets by 2030. Other major recent procurement projects include joint air-to-surface missiles, multiple launch rocket systems, modern tanks, armoured howitzers, and modernization and replacement projects for naval vessels.

The main assets of the Finnish Defense Forces are conscription and reserve field troops. The number of active-duty troops is about 19,000, about 22,000 new reservists are trained each year, and the size of the fully mobilized field army is 280,000 (and hundreds of thousands of reservists can make up for the losses). Finns also have a strong military culture, with almost every Finn claiming to be militarily ready to defend the country. In a poll conducted in May 2022, 76% of men and 36% of women announced that they were ready to take up arms, while 85% said they were ready to help in any way they could.

Another important feature of Finnish security culture is the high priority attached to integrated security. Moreover, as a member of the European Union, Finland's commitment to NATO's "democratic principles" is indisputable. In terms of ideology, Finland is undoubtedly a "good asset" of the United States and NATO, and it will not have the same "negative impact" as Turkey.

Finally, geostrategically, Finland (and Sweden) joining NATO will strengthen NATO's defenses in northeastern Europe. Finland's active participation in NATO military exercises over the past few years has demonstrated their military capabilities. After Finland's accession, the three Baltic states expressed great optimism, and they welcomed Finland's contribution to "stability in the Baltic region and a more comprehensive joint defense plan for northeastern Europe in NATO." For NATO, in the event of a military conflict in the Baltic region, Finland is of great strategic importance, and its role as a trump card to contain Russia cannot be underestimated.

Xue Kaihuan: Will Finland act as a pawn in NATO's anti-Russian campaign?

How will Russia react?

Finland's accession to the treaty will inevitably further deteriorate Russian-Finnish bilateral relations. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already said that Finland's accession to NATO will have a negative impact on Russian-Finnish bilateral relations, and Russia will have to respond with military-technical and other measures of a nature to eliminate national security threats.

After joining the treaty, Finland will inevitably increase its dependence on the United States and the European Union, which are pursuing anti-Russian policies, which will greatly reduce the flexibility of Finland's foreign policy, including on sanctions and other issues. Of course, Russia will be forced to respond to NATO's deployment of military infrastructure along the entire 1,300-kilometer border with Finland, and it will inevitably take additional measures to strengthen military control over the Russian-Finnish border, including the construction of new military barracks, military units and airports, roads and warehouses.

At the same time, it should be noted that with Finland's accession to the alliance, the geopolitical environment of St. Petersburg, Russia's second largest city, 130 kilometers from the Russian-Finnish border, will deteriorate significantly. In the event of a formal outbreak of hostilities between Russia and NATO, NATO will be able to strike at the city from two directions: along the route of Estonia - Pskov region - St. Petersburg and Finland - Karelian isthmus - St. Petersburg.

Russia is quite familiar with this situation – because this is exactly the route that Nazi Germany took to raid the Soviet Union through Finland after Operation Barbarossa. Nazi German troops, supported by Finland, marched through Estonia towards Leningrad (St. Petersburg), and Finland launched an attack on Leningrad (St. Petersburg) from the Karelian Isthmus. If the conflict between Russia and the West enters the stage of hot war, the United States and the European Union can use the effective route tested by the "predecessors" to enter Russia. Russia has to guard against this, which will greatly increase Russia's strategic pressure.

In addition, Finland's accession to NATO could lead to an increase in separatism in the Karelian region. It is well known that Western political scientists consider the "national question" to be one of the main pain points of modern Russia, which may lead to the second disintegration of Russia. One of the potential centers of separatism in northern Russia is the Karelian region, acquired from Finland during the Soviet era and currently bordering Finland, which is close not only territorially but also ethnoculturally to its western neighbors.

If the West is to work towards the goal of weakening Russia, it is fully capable and likely to negatively affect the situation in Karelia through Finland, where the issue of separatism, while not on the active agenda, is not non-existent.

Back in 2012, the city and countryside of Karelia were distributing leaflets calling for a referendum on secession from Russia. The following year, the name of local entrepreneur Vyacheslav Drezner spread throughout Russia, and he asked the local and Russian federal governments to transfer part of the territory of Karelia to Finland. In general, the Karelian question is a good means of Western pressure on Russia, and now Finland is unlikely to oppose such a Western policy.

Moreover, Finland's entry into NATO will eventually form the so-called "Ring Russian Blockade Belt" on its western borders. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West began to seek to establish a "border state isolation belt" to blockade and suppress Russia, and began to bring it closer to Russia's native border. The West needs "blockades" to contain Russia's development and revival, and to prevent potential rapprochement between Russia and Germany and France. The West follows the principles of the "python theory" put forward by US Admiral Alfred Mahan more than a hundred years ago, which is to gradually encircle and consume enemy countries, trying to trap Russia in a besieged fortress of a chain of hostility. Finland, with its strategic position, was the missing element in the context of control of the Baltic region, but now this element has been completed.

If the Finns were not "bluffing", but de facto acted as pawns for NATO anti-Russia after joining NATO, then perhaps peace would no longer be for this country that has been peaceful for many years.

For Russia, it is only necessary to get used to living in new geopolitical conditions. Unlike in the past, Finland will no longer be an imaginary partner of Russia, but a very real enemy. In this struggle, Russia will officially put Finland in the position of an enemy.

As for the EU, the trend of deterioration of the security situation in Europe has not fundamentally improved, and the biggest victims of this are not only Russia, but also obviously the EU. Whether to take the independent diplomatic and security road, whether to curb the heating up of the situation, obviously, this difficult test, the EU has not yet passed.

This article is an exclusive manuscript of Observer.com, the content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion, does not represent the platform's views, unauthorized reproduction, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued. Follow the observer network WeChat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.

Xue Kaihuan: Will Finland act as a pawn in NATO's anti-Russian campaign?

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