Time Contributor | County Howe
Older youth in a cinema.
At the end of March, the $150 million Hollywood blockbuster "Dungeons and Dragons: Rogue Glory" was released simultaneously in China and the United States.
This game adaptation movie, IMDb 7.6 points, Rotten Tomatoes freshness 90%, good reputation, but the first day of box office is ugly.
In the mainland, the film's first-day box office was only 9.2 million yuan, ranking behind "Journey to Lingya", "Loyal Dog Hachiko" and "Keep You Safe".
On the same day, the DC Super British blockbuster "Thunder Shazam!" that cost $125 million and had just been released for half a month! Wrath of the Gods (hereinafter referred to as "Shazam 2"), the mainland box office fell to 20 places, only 60,000 yuan.
It is an indisputable fact that Hollywood blockbusters are becoming more and more difficult to sell in China.
Today, I will talk about it, why is this?
The box office was "cut off"
In 2023, mainland cinemas will officially shake off the impact of the epidemic lockdown, theatrical films will show a trend of blowout and finalization, and the number of Hollywood blockbusters will also increase.
Since the beginning of this year, a total of 4 Hollywood blockbusters have been released in the mainland with a cost of more than 100 million US dollars, "Black Panther 2", "Ant-Man 3", "Shazam 2" and the latest "Dungeons & Dragons: Rogue Glory".
"Rogue Glory" has just been released for 5 days, with a cumulative box office of 38.78 million, and the box office situation is still unclear, but the probability will stop within 100 million. In addition, the box office results of the two Marvels and a new DC film have basically been finalized.
At present, the mainland box office of "Black Panther 2", "Ant-Man 3" and "Shazam 2" is 100 million, 270 million and 41 million yuan respectively, compared with the box office of its predecessor, such data is more serious than the "waist chop".
Today's Hollywood blockbusters, the mainland box office has exceeded 200 million yuan, has become a difficult hurdle to pass.
You know, the mainland box office of "Black Panther", "Ant-Man", "Ant-Man 2" and "Shazam" that year was 662 million, 670 million, 830 million and 290 million respectively.
All four films were released before the epidemic, but if the reason for the box office fiasco of their sequels is all attributed to the epidemic, it is obviously untenable.
For example, the Japanese animation "Suzuya Journey", which has just been released, has a box office of more than 500 million, which is larger than the total box office of these three super-British movies, temporarily ranking the box office champion of imported films this year.
Let's take a longitudinal comparison, these three blockbusters and their predecessors have so far been the North American and global box office.
(Source: Maoyan Pro, Box Office Mojo)
We can find that the Chinese mainland market contributes less and less to the global box office of Hollywood blockbusters (before and after the epidemic, there was also a box office contraction in the North American domestic market).
Hollywood blockbusters have been cold in the mainland after the epidemic, which is also manifested as a relatively violent box office offensive of domestic films.
As of April 1, the mainland's total box office this year was 16 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for more than 87%, and Hollywood blockbusters accounting for only 7.4%, less than 1.5 billion, half of which is the credit of "Avatar: The Way of Water".
Avatar: The Way of Water
Here are two more words to talk about "Avatar: The Way of Water".
Coupled with the box office at the end of last year, the mainland box office of "Avatar: The Way of Water" has accumulated 1.69 billion yuan, which has not yet exceeded the 1.71 billion result of "Avatar" in 2010 (of course, "Avatar" has been re-screened twice in the mainland).
Compared with its proud result of 2.3 billion US dollars worldwide and the third largest in film history, the mainland box office of "Avatar: The Way of Water" is also much worse than the industry expects.
Compared with the above three superhero movies, Ka Shen's masterpiece, as the first Hollywood blockbuster after the unblocking, was not ideal at the box office, but it was still obviously affected by the epidemic.
In addition, among the top 20 box office lists in mainland film history, there are 18 domestic films, of which 9 were squeezed into the list during (later) the epidemic.
The other two are Hollywood blockbusters, namely "Avengers 4" and "Fast and Furious 7", which ranked eighth and twentieth with 4.2 billion and 2.6 billion box office, both released before the epidemic.
It can be seen that in today's mainland market, Hollywood blockbusters are becoming less and less fragrant.
"Avengers 4" became the last highlight moment before the epidemic
Why isn't it fragrant?
The fact that domestic audiences no longer love to watch Hollywood blockbusters cannot simply be attributed to the impact of the epidemic.
The epidemic has made audiences afraid of the confined space of theaters, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy has led to a reduction in audiences' entertainment expenses, which has certainly had an impact on the box office of movies.
However, this year's domestic films such as "Manjiang Hong" and "The Wandering Earth 2", with a box office of 4 billion+ per film, all prove that mainland audiences still have strong consumption power for movies.
First, the quality of Hollywood blockbusters has visibly declined, stemming from the aesthetic degradation of the global film industry.
Take superhero movies, the "Captain America" series, "Avengers" series, "Aquaman", "Wonder Woman", etc. before the epidemic, all had domestic scores of more than 7 points.
After the epidemic, "Black Panther 2", "Ant-Man 3", and "Shazam 2" only hovered at the passing line.
"Captain America 3"
Compared with the past, the reputation of recent superhero movies is not too good: unattractive characters, weak visual effects, and seething online war of words... So much so that few films have won full acclaim.
In addition, the complexity of Sino-US relations during the epidemic has led to a certain degree of resistance to Hollywood blockbusters among some domestic audiences.
Three years of the epidemic, the time of discontinuity of Hollywood blockbusters is too long.
Many audiences' memory of Marvel's screen is still stuck in the highlight period of "Avengers 4" in 2019.
In the entire fourth stage of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), only one "Black Panther 2" can meet Chinese mainland audience on the big screen.
The tastes of mainland audiences have already undergone complex and subtle changes, and many people have lost their previous expectations.
"Shazam 2"
At the same time, the fatigue brought by the epidemic has made audiences more willing to relax when watching movies, choosing domestic films that can be directly entered in terms of language, geography and other aspects, rather than those foreign films that need to carry out secondary transformation of language, thinking, environment, etc., including Hollywood blockbusters.
The directors and actors of recent superhero movies, all kinds of news, also make people sweat.
"Shazam 2" director David F. Sandberg said directly that he was not surprised by the film's box office failure. He decided that he didn't want to make superhero movies again, after all, the payment had been settled.
On Marvel's side, the villain "Kang the Conqueror" they focus on in the new stage, and its actor Jonathan Meijers was arrested for assaulting women, which may disrupt Marvel's next film deployment.
"Kang the Conqueror" was arrested
Another important point is the impact of streaming.
Whether at home or abroad, more and more audiences prefer to stream movies to watch movies, and streaming media is also continuing to compete with theaters for audience groups in the investment and production of films.
For example, Netflix made a profit of 5.6 billion US dollars last year, added 8.9 million users throughout the year, and the total number of global users has exceeded 230 million, ranking first in the profit list of Hollywood studios, which shows the huge impact of streaming media on traditional theaters.
(Image source: The Hollywood Reporter)
Can it rise again?
Next, a number of Hollywood blockbusters are confirmed to be introduced into the mainland.
Some of them are released asynchronously.
Such as "Daho Sailor", which was released 7 months behind North America, and the classic "Titanic", which was re-screened.
It is worth mentioning that the re-screening time of "Titanic" coincides with the 25th anniversary of the film's premiere in the mainland, which is quite commemorative.
The other part is (hopefully) a simultaneous release.
For example, it has been determined that "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" synchronized between China and the United States, and "Fast and Furious 10" and "Megalodon 2" that are expected to be synchronized.
These films have relatively strong box office appeal.
"Silver Guard 3" is the last film directed by James Gunn for Marvel, and it is also regarded by many fans as Marvel's last chance to win back Chinese audiences.
In the first 10 films of the "Quick" series (including 1 external biography), a total of 7 films were released in the mainland, with a total box office of 8.6 billion yuan, which shows its audience base.
The first part of "Megalodon" cut 1.05 billion box office in the mainland, and now "Megalodon 2" has Wu Jing joining the starring role, and the box office prospects are very good.
After experiencing "Black Adam" and "Thunder Shazam 2" in a row, Warner has high hopes and confidence in "The Flash".
After 9 years of development and shooting, changing 4 directors and starring Ezra Miller "collapsed", the DC Universe's "Hope for the Village" "The Flash" was completed in March this year.
The film will be released in North America on June 16, and it is still unknown whether it can be introduced to the mainland at the same time.
In addition, super blockbusters such as "Mission Impossible 7", "Indiana Jones 5" and "Transformers 7" may be introduced simultaneously this year.
According to the previous law, these Hollywood top IPs that have been created over the years, even if the quality is not good, can make a fortune with fame.
For example, "Jurassic World 3", released during the epidemic, although the reputation is not as good as the first two parts of IP, it still received 1.05 billion yuan at the box office.
However, the repeated decline in mainland audiences' recognition of Hollywood blockbusters is likely to cause these highly popular films to encounter market difficulties.
Mission Impossible 7
In the past, it was hard to imagine that the mainland box office of Hollywood blockbusters such as "Silver Guard 3" and "Fast 10" might lose to medium-sized domestic films.
But in the current mainland market, such a "reversal" is possible.
For example, "Keep You Safe" directed by Dapeng was released for one month, and the box office was close to 600 million yuan, which is more than the total box office of all Hollywood blockbusters in the same period.
"Keep You Safe"
Will Hollywood blockbusters still be able to rise in the mainland market in the next few years?
Time Lord's only words -
If the quality is very good, there is still a glimmer of life, the quality is slightly poor, and the box office breaks 200 million, it is very difficult.