UAE: The great wisdom of diplomacy around a small country

Among the Gulf countries rich in natural resources, the UAE has been able to focus its economic development on tourism, financial industry, import and export trade and other aspects with a foresight around the new century, and the UAE's unique strategic vision has impressed the world. Although located in the "mysterious Middle East", the UAE is not well known to the world, but its domestic and foreign affairs in international dance troupes should not be underestimated.

The internal "A-Di" balance is gradually broken

[Except for Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the other five emirates have little voice]

When it comes to the UAE, the first impression is that of "local tyrants", and some people may not even be able to distinguish between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, Dubai in the UAE is a city built by the sky and sea, famous for its luxury hotels, but Abu Dhabi is the capital of the UAE. Abu Dhabi and Dubai, like China's Beijing and Shanghai, play the role of political and economic centers respectively.

The UAE is located in the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula, bordered by the Persian Gulf to the north, Saudi Arabia to the west and south, Qatar to the northwest (Arabian Sea), and Oman to the east. On 2 December 1971, the six emirates of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, um Al Quwain and Ajman declared a federal state similar to the United States and Germany (Ras Al Khaimah and the latex United Arab Emirates on 10 February 1972), with a legislative, executive and judicial system of the federal government. The Council of the Federation is composed of the chiefs of the seven emirates, the highest authority in the country, and the government positions such as the President and Vice-President are elected by the Supreme Council for a five-year term, and the President also serves as Chairman of the Supreme Council.

In August 2006, the United Arab Emirates enacted a new parliamentary election law, which provides for a federal national assembly of 40 members (20 of whom are appointed directly by the emirates of the emirates and 20 are elected by the emirates), including 8 each from Abu Dhabi and Dubai, 6 each from Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah and 4 each from Fujairah, um Quwain and Ajman. Generally speaking, the number of ministers is allocated according to the principles of political influence and economic strength of each emirate, and the ministers of Abu Dhabi and Dubai are the most judged.

With the exception of Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the other five emirates do not have a high voice. The reason for this is that Sharjah has no oil and mineral resources, mainly to develop submarine oil fields, and its small area and economic volume are not large. In addition, Sharjah has close relations with Saudi Arabia, a strong religious atmosphere, and a low level of internationalization; Ras Al Khaimah's economy is single, mainly pearl trade; Fujairah developed agriculture because of the fertile land, mainly growing tobacco and vegetables; um Al Quwain's economic sources are natural gas and fishing; With almost zero oil reserves, Ajman is the weakest of the emirates, and its economy is often aided by Kuwait in addition to state subsidies from the United Arab Emirates.

The proven oil reserves of the entire UAE are 13.3 billion tons (10% of the world), of which Abu Dhabi alone has 12.4 billion tons (94% of the UAE), and Abu Dhabi is the largest of the seven emirates; Dubai, the UAE's successful emirate from the oil economy, once shined for tourism, foreign trade, etc., but after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the new crown epidemic, the Dubai government first announced the sale of shares of the world's second-largest listed real estate company, Emaar at the peak of the market capitalization of $7.7 billion, to Abu Dhabi, and then transferred Emirates to Abu Dhabi, upsetting the "A-Di" balance within the UAE.

The former president of the UAE is Khalifa bin Al Nahyan, the sheikh of Abu Dhabi, who launched the public eye after a stroke in 2014, when Abu Dhabi actually took power, Abu Dhabi's crown prince, that is, the sheikh's Didi Muhan, before the Dubai sheikh, Mohammed Al Maktoum, who previously enjoyed a certain voice in the UAE, although he was also the vice president and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, but since the debt crisis in 2009, Dubai's economy has gone into recession, and its voice in the country's domestic and foreign affairs has gradually declined.

Pragmatic diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia

[Although the two countries compete economically, cooperation still outweighs competition in foreign policy and geopolitical interests]

Within the UAE, Dubai has a certain rivalry with Abu Dhabi. Looking at the entire Middle East, the "small country" United Arab Emirates, which has a land area of only 3.7% of Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia, a "big country", are also "cooperative and competitive" relations. Saudi Arabia, home to the two holiest sites of Islam (Mecca and Medina), is the largest and most economically powerful of the Middle Eastern countries, and has always had ambitions to act as a "Middle Eastern speaker". As the No. 2 strength in the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates is not far behind. Therefore, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are actually undercurrents in a friendly diplomatic atmosphere.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has implemented a series of reform measures and gradually become the most attractive country in the Middle East. In contrast, the UAE was seeking economic transformation at the beginning of this century, with tourism, finance and external trade all starting earlier than Saudi Arabia, and the UAE's strategic location has also attracted a large number of foreign investors, and 79% of the country's GDP currently comes from non-oil revenues. Therefore, in recent years, the competition between the two countries in the field of investment has gradually become clearer. On February 15, 2021, Saudi Arabia required international companies that cooperate with the government to move their regional headquarters to Saudi Arabia by 2024 at the latest, a move that clearly pointed the finger at Dubai, United Arab Emirates. This is a very bold investment promotion plan, and if business owners disclose to Saudi officials in charge of investment promotion that they intend to move out of Dubai or intend to set up a headquarters in Saudi Arabia, they will receive additional preferential policies.

Although the homogeneous competition between the two countries is gradually heating up, this is not a bad thing. With the aim of attracting more external investors and healthy competition, the two countries have continuously adjusted their own opening-up policies, accelerated the integration of various fields with the world, accelerated the pace of opening up and development of the Gulf region, and made great contributions to the connection between Arab countries and the world.

While the two countries compete economically, they cooperate far more than compete in foreign policy and geopolitical interests. During Qatar's diplomatic crisis in 2017, the two countries worked closely together. Qatar's reconciliation with Saudi Arabia has also been accompanied by UAE-mediated efforts; The two countries also work closely together in supporting anti-Muslim Brotherhood governments in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt.

Previously, in the early days of the Yemeni civil war, the Shah and the two countries supported the warring sides, and Saudi Arabia's then Crown Prince Naif Jr. was once involved in a verbal war with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed. With the rapid rise of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed's power and the dawn of peace in Yemen, relations between the two countries have eased again. Even though the UAE opposed the increase in the oil production cap in July 2021, the two countries resolved their differences through slippers, and eventually oil production was raised.

In general, the two countries pursue a pragmatic foreign policy and do not want to elevate their differences to the international stage. In particular, after 2010, the relationship between the UAE and Israel gradually warmed up, and on September 15, 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and the United States issued a joint statement saying that the three countries "have agreed to the full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates", and the United Arab Emirates had previously connected the +972 country telephone code directly dialed Israel on August 16 and the direct navigation between the two countries on 331 days. On January 24 and May 30, 2021, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv established embassies in both countries. The series of olive branches thrown by the UAE to Israel is difficult to say that there is no Saudi acquiescence behind them. In addition, although Saudi Arabia and Iran have always been at odds, among the international businessmen in Dubai, businessmen from Iran have formed a force that cannot be underestimated, and Saudi Arabia has not intervened to stop it. In the future, it is worth watching whether Iran will break the ice with Saudi Arabia under the mediation of the United Arab Emirates like Qatar. (This article was written in 2021, and the author's good hopes have become a reality, but the mediation party is China)

"Love-hate intertwined" with the United States

[In recent years, the UAE has gradually distanced itself from the United States on Syria, Iran and Yemen]

Back in the 90s, Richard Clark, a counterterrorism expert who served as secretary of state in the Bush administration, said that the best counterterrorism ally of the United States in the Gulf region was the United Arab Emirates. The UAE military actively cooperates with the actions of the United States in fighting extremists in the Middle East, coupled with the fact that the United Arab Emirates is the only country in the Middle East that takes pre-clearance outside the United States, so that former US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis called "Little Pasta". The United States has been an ally and partner of the UAE since its founding. U.S. warships docked at UAE ports are the most of any U.S. overseas port. Currently, the United States has two air bases and one naval base in the UAE.

Despite the close cooperation between the United States and the United States in counterterrorism, the UAE is the only Arab country to send troops to carry out humanitarian aid missions in Afghanistan in the US-led war in Afghanistan.

But in recent years, the UAE has drifted away from the United States on Syria, Iran and Yemen.

In December 2018, the UAE announced the reopening of its embassy in Damascus to restore relations with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a move that went against the wishes of the United States.

In January 2019, the UAE hosted a trade mission led by Syrian businessmen subject to U.S. sanctions;

On September 20, 2020, U.S. prosecutors charged a Dubai-based trading firm with conducting $142 million in suspicious transactions using the UAE financial system between 2011 and 2012 since 2016. U.S. prosecutors believe the Dubai-based company was part of the "Turkey-Iran" gold trading network, which coordinated multimillion-dollar transactions for the Iranian government and Iranian entities subject to U.S. sanctions;

On August 19, 2020, the Trump administration sanctioned two companies registered in the UAE for working for Iran Air;

On February 4, 2019, CNN said that weapons sold by the United States to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia ended up in the hands of al-Qaida militants waging war in Yemen. CNN argues that the UAE and Saudi Arabia use U.S.-made weapons to buy militia loyalties in the form of currency.

Although the UAE has long been interested in Yemen, and its unpositive attitude has caused Saudi Arabia to complain, only 12 days later (February 26, 2019), Birch, an American citizen imprisoned by the Yemeni Houthis armed forces for 18 months, was released under the mediation of the UAE, and Trump publicly expressed his gratitude to the UAE.

After that, the UAE announced the withdrawal of troops from Yemen in September of that year, determined not to participate in it, but the US arms sales to Afghanistan did not stop. On November 10, 2020, the Trump administration formally notified Congress that it would sell the UAE 50 stealth F-35 fighter jets, 18 cash armed unmanned aerial systems and a package of air-to-air/air-to-surface missiles worth a total of $23 billion, making the UAE one of the Middle East military powers.

However, the United States also has conditions attached to arms sales to Afghanistan, requiring the UAE government to stop using 5G equipment produced by China's Huawei. Although Dubai has always been friendly with Beijing, it was forced by the United States to purchase only some civilian equipment, and for sensitive equipment, it was forced to choose a manufacturer designated by the United States.

Deepening cooperation with China has become an inevitable trend

[Especially in the field of new energy, China and Argentina have common strategic goals]

Although the US intervention has hindered cooperation between China and the UAE in some key industries, the in-depth development of China-Arab relations is undoubtedly in line with the trend of history. Gulf countries, represented by the UAE, can consider China's economic reforms fruitful and perhaps replicated in the region. In addition, oil dependence and the development of industry and commerce are inseparable from cooperation with China. The UAE firmly supports the Belt and Road Initiative and believes that this concept is deeply in line with its domestic development plans. The UAE is a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and a natural partner in the Belt and Road Initiative. Since the UAE joined the AIIB, Chinese investment in the UAE has increased by 33% in the past 2015. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, China and Arab countries have cooperated in various fields such as medical and health, economy and trade, culture and education.

At present, China is the largest trading partner of the UAE, which is China's largest exporter, second largest trading partner, second largest investment destination, third largest underwriting engineering market, and is also an important platform for mainland commodities to radiate to the Middle East and Africa. The UAE is also the country with the largest number of Chinese citizens doing business and tourism in the Middle East. According to incomplete statistics, more than 200,000 Chinese nationals work and live in the UAE, mainly in Dubai, Sharjah and other places, which have played an active role in promoting the economic development of the UAE.

Especially in the field of new energy, China and Argentina share common strategic goals. China aims to increase the share of clean energy to 20% by 2030, and the UAE plans to increase the share of clean energy in the country's overall energy mix from 25% to 50% by 2050. At the same time, carbon emissions from power generation are reduced by 70%. In addition, China and the United Arab Emirates have strong complementarity in resource endowments and industrial institutions. For example, China's solar energy industry is developing rapidly, but due to overcapacity and domestic supply and demand imbalance, the UAE provides a broader development platform for the mainland's clean energy industry.

Historically, the United Arab Emirates has not only been able to maintain its independence from Saudi Arabia and the United States, but also reversed the negative perceptions of Saudi Arabia and the United States to a certain extent, and can find another way to turn the tide at critical moments. Therefore, the UAE, which has made up its mind to deepen its development with China, will certainly play a greater balancing role on the international stage.