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Before the start of the 2021-22 season, not many people would have imagined that this season's championship would be the Golden State Warriors - even if they ushered in a healthier Curry in the new season, Thompson, who had just experienced two years of serious injuries, increasingly outrageous dreams on the offensive end, and Wiggins, who seemed to have no desire, have long been labeled as "high salaries and low energy".
However, reality is not a game, and the strength of a team cannot be measured by numbers alone. The chemistry of Kutang's chase is still unmatched, Wiggins and Poole have gradually grown into a new generation of core characters, and the Warriors' role players have also played beyond their value.
So, they were predicted to have only 37 wins before the start of the season, winning their fourth championship in eight years.
After the Warriors win the championship, the next step is naturally how to defend the title, and the key to defending the title is the stability and even improvement of the roster. Considering that these core players of the Warriors dynasty are getting older, the team needs to make younger adjustments to the roster structure if it is to remain competitive for a long time.
In other words, the Warriors need to do two things in the coming years: win in the present and deploy the future. And this offseason after winning the championship will be an important first step in determining whether the Warriors can build a new dynasty.
Happy warriors are about to face happy troubles.
This season's Warriors are the NBA's highest total salary, reaching 175.9 million yuan, and next season is even more terrifying, with only Kutang Chasing and four players left on contract in the offseason, a total of 8 players, their total salary has reached 171.1 million yuan.
The team's salary space for the next few years has been completely locked: it is impossible to operate under the cap, and it is also difficult to operate on the cap. Considering next season's soft salary cap of $121 million and luxury tax line of $147 million, the Warriors have almost no room to maneuver this offseason.
But "hardly" ≠ no.
The first issue the Warriors will have to address this summer is Poole's early contract extension.
Poole is the No. 28 pick in the first round of 2019, and through the team's careful training for three seasons, he finally grew into their role as their "quasi-second scorer" this year: averaging 18+3+4 per game in the regular season, and can even reach a three-point shooting rate of 23+4+5+40% after All-Star; Entering the playoffs, the first round "firmly locked Curry on the bench", the entire playoffs can average 17+3+4+39% three-point shooting per game, which is the surprise of the Warriors this season and one of the most important championship puzzles for the Warriors.
Poole's rookie contract is in the third year, and he can theoretically sign a five-year maximum salary contract with a starting salary of 25% with the Warriors, but considering that the Warriors have 4 different levels of top salary contracts in Curry, Klay, Chasing Dream, and Mouth, it must be difficult for Poole to get the fifth maximum salary contract of the same team.
However, the Warriors have Poole's bird rights to help the team with cap operations, and according to information circulating within the Warriors, Poole is likely to get an early contract extension from the Warriors this offseason - a total of $80 million for 4 years, which will be executed next season (2023-24) after the rookie contract ends.
No matter how much Poole ends up with a contract, one thing is certain — the Warriors will definitely offer this early extension this offseason: both as a reward for outstanding performance this season and as an affirmation of Poole as a core part of the Warriors for the foreseeable future.
In addition to Poole, how to retain Looney, whose contract expires, is also one of the most important things - the Warriors need a full-stamped center like Looney who can both eat through Kerr's system and play blue-collar effects, and the 26-year-old Looney has just played the peak of his career, he is back healthy and still has room for improvement.
More importantly, the Warriors have Looney's bird rights, which allows them to renew their contracts regardless of the salary cap. Although it is not ruled out that Looney will test the free agent market this offseason, after all, the Rockets also provided a middle-class offer when Looney became a restricted free agent, but if the price is right, Looney, who has been with the Warriors over the years, will definitely prioritize staying with the team.
Poole and Looney can be retained, but Payton and Porter's situation is more delicate, let's start with Porter: Porter's resurgence this season, the full-size forward body and 3D attributes, combined with the characteristics of being able to stand in the small ball number four or five, after entering the free agent market, it will definitely attract the interest of many teams. Whether the 29-year-old Porter will continue to pursue the title or seize the opportunity to make money is fraught with uncertainty.
Payton Jr. is another big surprise for the Warriors this season besides Poole, and when outside defensive generalists such as Smart and Caruso are becoming more and more popular in the league, Payton Jr., who has the same attributes, has earned himself a place in the league with his 120% effort. As one of the best outside defenders in the league today, the long-wandering "second generation of stars" has no reason not to fight for his next big contract.
For now, Porter and Payton Jr. are not players who can stay on a base-salary contract alone, and in the absence of bird rights and salary space, the only thing the Warriors can move this summer is a mid-range contract worth $6.34 million.
Ideally, splitting this middle class can achieve the goal of leaving two people at the same time - but this situation is a little too "ideal", since the market's assessment of these two is not the base salary, it is obviously not reasonable to sign these two by more than 1 million higher than the base salary.
So, it's likely that the Warriors will choose between the two and end up offering the full mid-range, and given Kuminga and Moody's attributes and growth, the Warriors have enough talent in the forward position, and Payton Jr. may be the one who continues to wear the Warriors jersey to chase the next championship.
On the day of the Warriors' victory, Woj revealed that Wiggins may also get a contract extension this summer - he has 1 year and 33.61 million left on his existing contract, and Warriors management plans to negotiate an extension this summer, and they can extend it for three or four years on top of the existing contract. Long-term Wiggins is one of the Warriors' goals this summer.
This message actually reveals two things: one is that the Warriors already see Wiggins as part of the future core roster; Second, people did not say that they would use the top salary to renew the contract.
Given Wiggins' tougher than expected throughout the playoffs and his prime age, if he enters free agency next year, there's a good chance there will be teams willing to bet on a big contract and maybe even a top salary. So the question for the Warriors is straightforward: If we have to re-sign Wiggins, where are our strengths?
From the perspective of the team's salary structure, the most difficult season for the Warriors in the next few years will be the 2023-24 season, Curry's contract of 52 million + Klay's final year of 43.22 million + Dream Player Option of 27.59 million, Poole's contract extension is also implemented this season, and the estimated amount is also more than 20 million, The total salary of the four has reached 143 million, and if the Warriors renew Wiggins this summer, the contract will also be implemented in the 2023-24 season, and this contract will directly determine what the Warriors' luxury tax floor will be at that time.
The hardest thing to survive is the sunny day, and by 2024, it will be difficult for the 34-year-old Klay and Chase Dream to get a maximum salary contract, so after the summer of 2024, when the contract of these two is no longer the top salary, the team's total salary will also usher in a certain degree of decline.
For the Warriors, if they must renew Wiggins with a maximum salary contract, what needs to be measured is nothing more than salary pressure in the 2023-24 season; And even if they're not willing to offer a top salary, the Warriors still have an innate advantage — they have Wiggins' bird rights, and an 8% salary increase that no other team can give.
However, the final decision on this matter is up to Wiggins himself, and if he really wants to try to go into free agency next year and look around other opportunities, then the Warriors have something to reconsider.
Let Wiggins go for nothing? Such a loss of assets is clearly unacceptable for a championship-contendering team. If negotiations this summer create uncertainty about the future, the Warriors will have to do both — either trade Wiggins directly for another championship puzzle in the middle of the season (which is the safest thing to do in this scenario) or pray that he will agree to sign and leave the team after the contract ends, as the man did.
Perhaps, this is not bad news. After all, he can use that man's way and help the warriors exchange for that man.
Since Green's formula can close the loop, let's make this closed loop more thorough!
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