Today's article is straight to the point: Recently, at a public event, Musk publicly stated that Tesla is now fully capable of manufacturing new cars with half the production cost of the current Model 3. As soon as this remark came out, the industry was shaken, because everyone may know that now new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, why the price reduction is not as "crazy" as fuel vehicles, in fact, the reason is that the cost of trams is much higher than that of oil vehicles, especially the battery.
Many people estimate that as early as a few years ago (2019), a 400-kilometer NEDC battery pack cost almost 60,000, and a 500-kilometer battery cost more than 80,000, so the pure electric vehicle at that time was simply unable to make it cheap.
Later, everyone also knows, battery companies began to soar production capacity, battery pack prices continue to fall, but to this day may be that the officials still have no concept of the cost of pure electric vehicles, and the current pure electric vehicles are still as costly as before? Is Musk's crazy-looking statement really possible?
First of all, whether it is 19 years or 23 years, the majority of the cost of pure electric vehicles has always been batteries, but the proportion of batteries in the cost of the whole vehicle has declined significantly. According to information from third-party research agencies, in 2019, the cost of a battery pack accounted for 66.1% of the total BOM cost of a new NEDC with a range of 520 kilometers. Also in 2019, in a NEDC range of 610 kilometers in a pure electric new car, the cost of the battery pack will account for about 69% of the BOM cost of the whole vehicle.
Therefore, whether it is the overlord clause of battery companies such as the Ningde era, or the anger of major car companies against various "unequal supply terms" of battery companies, and even what we can see today, so many car companies self-developed power batteries, in fact, the most fundamental source comes from this. However, from 2020 to 2022, the production capacity of battery companies has skyrocketed, and batteries have also exploded under the fierce industry competition.
Until mid-March 2023, according to a report released by a third-party research agency in January 2023, the average shipment price of a CLTC 550 km battery pack (equivalent to NEDC 520 km) is now about 26,000 yuan, and the battery cost of a pure electric new car with a CLTC range of 650 km has dropped from nearly 70% in 2019 to about 47% now.
In other words, the current battery cost is actually about 30% lower than in 19 years. This 30% profit margin, if properly utilized, can be used to improve hardware such as autonomous driving hardware and improve vehicle configuration and space. Therefore, based on the overall product strength of pure electric vehicles in the current state in 2019 and 2023, although the cost pressure of batteries has been reduced a lot, considering that the cost of autonomous driving-related hardware has risen a lot compared with 19 years, the BOM cost of pure electric vehicles themselves is still significantly higher than that of plug-in hybrid (including range extension) and oil hybrid models, and far higher than that of pure fuel vehicles. Compared with 2019, the profit of pure electric vehicles is still not much better. For some new force car companies with poor cost control, the current pure electric vehicle, the cost will be higher than that in 19 years, and the loss of selling cars will be more.
First of all, we need to make it clear to you: although Musk's words seem crazy, he is telling the truth that Tesla can really build a new car that costs 50% less than Model 3. It's just that this new car may be very different from what everyone imagines Tesla should look like.
Whether or not Musk's words are hinting at the upcoming unveiling at the end of this year, it is suspected that the hatchback will be named Model 2 or Model Q. But according to the current US media news, the size of this new car is close to the Volkswagen ID.3, and it may be slightly smaller, belonging to the category of small cars. Secondly, the body form of this car is strictly a hatchback, or hatchback, but in China, it is likely to appear in the definition of "SUV" model.
This car can achieve half the cost less than the Model 3, relying on the following factors. First, this car will be the first production car after Tesla's second-generation super die-casting machine enters service. Tesla this second generation super die casting machine we have previously published an article introduction, simply put, the die casting pressure is now 3-4 times of the first generation of die casting machine, the first generation of die casting machine to build a car also needs to divide the entire body-in-white into two parts, respectively die casting and then put together, and then into the painting workshop and assembly workshop.
The current second-generation die-casting machine can directly die cast a whole piece of aluminum alloy into a complete body-in-white, and even automatically complete the electrophoresis process, eliminating the need for body-in-white welding and an entire electrophoresis workshop. According to a press release on Tesla's US official website, the second-generation super die-casting machine can reduce the manufacturing cost of the body-in-white by about 37% compared with the car built by the first-generation die-casting machine under the premise of achieving higher body rigidity.
Secondly, Tesla's self-developed 4680 cells have entered the mass production stage, also according to Tesla's public information released in September 2022, when the 4680 cells complete the production capacity climb, compared with the purchase of batteries from LG Chem and Panasonic Battery, the cost can be reduced by nearly 40%. To be honest, just the body-in-white and the battery combined, Tesla can now compress the manufacturing cost of the small hatchback to half of the Model 3, so Musk's statement is actually quite conservative, because the actual manufacturing cost of Tesla's small car will only be lower than "half as low as Model 3".
Because according to almost all overseas media news, this Tesla cheap car, will all assist driving functions set as optional configuration, if you buy a "standard car" by then, then there is a very high probability that you buy a car without any assisted driving functions at all. And Tesla is likely to set the current lowest-end version of the FSD system on the Model 3 and Y, even if the lowest equipped car is standard, directly as an option.
Even some New Zealand media said that in order to sell better in "emerging markets", this Tesla cheap car may launch a version with lower configuration than the lowest configuration, and even the center control screen of the car machine is an option. But the media also pointed out that although the interior of this Tesla new car will directly "copy" Model 3, considering that the "ultra-low version" does not even have a central large screen, this version may be behind the steering wheel, adding a very small screen to the user to display the most basic speed gear and other information.
To put it bluntly, no matter how you look at it, the new car will be a "real rough car". If you think that the interior of the Model 3 is "blank" enough, this new car is expected to refresh your cognition again. And all this castration can save a lot of money. In other words, there is now speculation that this car may sell for as low as 15 or even 120,000, but in my opinion, 120,000 is not the limit of this car, and it can be lowered a little more.
But at least, according to the current news, the chassis quality of this car must not be bad, and it may even be because the body rigidity is very high (after all, the entire body is one-piece), and the actual dynamic performance is stronger than that of Model 3. There is even speculation that its handling ability can be close to the Model 3 performance version (but of course without the power of M3P). So to some extent, this car may be, is the next we can buy, 100,000 pure electric vehicles, the best control car?
To be honest, according to the current we have sorted out, about the product power information of this car, this car is absolutely impossible to sell well in China, a large part of its audience is those young people who like a sense of control, thanks to the fact that this car is almost in the same class without the opponent's ultra-high body rigidity, not good, this car is likely to become the next explosive car in the modification industry, considering that the motor installation location of many Tesla cars is universal, if this car can be equipped with Model 3 motors, and even modify dual motors, This car will absolutely explode in the tuning circle.
Even if you're not a fan of modding, the price is enough to get you entertained. Even if it is sold at a price of 120,000, with its chassis ability and handling, at least at present, in the domestic pure electric car field of the same price, it is completely unable to find a rival. Because at the same price, you can't find a competitor with a one-piece body, and the rigidity of the car body is too high.
Therefore, this car is very likely to set off a "bloody storm" in the pure electric car circle with a price of less than 150,000 in the future.