After reading this one, you are also an Oscar expert

This weekend, in fact, it was quite busy.

A bunch of friends are busy tasting the second season of "Dark Glory".

Another group of friends are waiting for the finale of "Restart Life", which starts on Sunday night.

Of course, there is another major event in the film industry, that is, the 95th Academy Awards will be held during the day on Monday.

Whether you love the Oscars or Hollywood so much, after all, this is an annual event in the film industry, and Weibo and friend circles should also be all kinds of screens.

In particular, this year, there are Michelle Yeoh and "Instantaneous Universe" as the favorites to win the award, and there are quite a few places to talk about.

It's still like that, after all, the Oscars are coming, and then everyone will have to talk about the Oscars in all kinds of ways, blowing, talking, playing predictions, god operators or something...

However, blowing also has to have some basis.

Today, let's talk about these bases.

Best Picture

This year's Oscar nominations for Best Picture are still ten:

Including: "No War on the Western Front", "Avatar 2", "Inisherin's Banshee", "Elvis", "Instantaneous Universe", "Dream House", "Tal", "Top Gun 2", "Triangle of Pathos", "Women's Conversation"

Of course, among them, the relative popularity is higher, which can be concentrated in the first six, that is, "Instantaneous Universe", "Dream Maker", "Tal", "Top Gun 2", "No War on the Western Front", "Inisherin's Banshee".

Or, if you want to narrow it down a little more, it could actually be "Instantaneous Universe", "Inisherin's Banshee" and "No War on the Western Front".

First of all, the number one hit for this year's best picture has been locked in "Instantaneous Universe", which is awesome.

No matter how you evaluate this movie, this is already the number one favorite at this year's Oscars, which belongs to the right time and place, plus the cast and behind-the-scenes team composed of basically Asians, which also adds a lot to the film.

Of course, the film's evaluation in North America is indeed very good.

Rotten Tomatoes is now 95% fresh, with a score of 8.6. In the sentinel battle of the awards season, the film is also sweeping all the way, including the Producers Guild Award (PGA) Best Picture, the Screen Actors Guild Award (SAG) Best Group Drama, and the Directors Guild Award (DGA) Best Director, these important Sentinel Awards have been won, and also won many Film Critics Association Best Picture Awards.

In terms of the number of awards alone, this film is also the most awarded film in this year's awards season, with a total of 154 major awards.

We also know that the Oscars have always been an award that looks at the direction of the wind, and many people vote to follow the trend, so if "Instantaneous Universe" wins the best picture in the end, you don't have to be particularly surprised.

It's a big hit!

It should be followed by "Inisherin's Banshee".

In fact, in the early stage of the awards season, this film has always been on par with "Instantaneous Universe", but in the final stage, it seems to be surpassed by "Instantaneous Universe".

The film has a 96% media rating freshness on Rotten Tomatoes, with a score of 8.7.

At the same time, the outpost battle in the awards season won 74 awards, second only to "Instantaneous Universe". Among them, there are also Golden Globe Awards for Best Picture in the Musical Comedy category, BAFTA Awards for Best British Film and other important awards.

It will also be a little bit of a threat to "Instantaneous Universe".

If you had to choose, it would probably be "No War on the Western Front", and some media also considered the film to be one of the hottest films of the year, especially after it won the BAFTA Award for Best Picture.

Of course, in fact, the award he is most likely to win should be Best International Film, which is basically an 80% chance of holding in his hand.

Probably, the situation of the best picture is basically like this, the hottest should be "Instantaneous Universe", we can also pay attention to it together, whether we can win the award.

As for other films, basically nomination is encouragement.

Best Director

Compared with the competition for best picture, the competition for best director is not so fierce, and everyone's attention to this award is actually not so high.

In particular, the competition for best director is often a continuation of best picture.

For example, this year, the hot spot for best director is also the director duo of "Instantaneous Universe" Guan Jiayong and Daniel Schnatter, especially the two also won the Best Director Award from the Directors Guild (DGA) before, which can be regarded as a solid road after their own Oscar.

Therefore, we can also look forward to whether this film can achieve the historical moment of the Oscar.

In addition to them, another hit is, Spielberg, okay, Spielberg again, this is his ninth nomination for an Oscar director, and he has won twice before. Will he be able to win the prize again this time?

We can only say that there is a chance, but the opportunity seems to be small.

In addition, Martin MacDonald of "Inisherin's Banshee" is also one of the hits.

Best Actress

Undoubtedly, this is the most watched award at this year's Oscars, even more attention than Best Picture.

Because, this year's competition for this award is really fierce.

Although there are five nominees, the other three should have little hope.

This year is basically Michelle Yeoh of "Instantaneous Universe" VS Cate Blanchett of "Tar".

It seems that the suspense of this award should be left for the last minute.

For the time being, from the outpost battle awards, as well as various media and predictions, the two sides are also equal, Michelle Yeoh slightly occupies the first advantage.

From the perspective of the outpost, Michelle Yeoh won the most important Screen Actors Guild Award (SAG) for Best Actress, and the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress in a Musical Comedy and other actor awards.

And Cate Blanchett won the BAFTA Award for Best Actress, the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress in a Drama, and the Venice Actress Awards.

Anyway, you want to say who is 100% stable, and you really dare not make a conclusion.

It can only be said that Michelle Yeoh is better, after all, the weight of the Screen Actors Guild Award is still quite heavy. Coupled with the crushing popularity of "Instantaneous Universe", as well as her Asian identity, it is actually a plus.

From my personal point of view, I also prefer that Michelle Yeoh can get a film queen, which is the first Asian American film queen in the history of the Oscars.

Best Actor

Compared with Best Actress, the attention of Best Actor is relatively weak. But in fact, the competition for best actor is more fierce.

At the beginning of the awards season, the best actor basically locked in Colin Farrell, the actor of "Inisherin's Banshee", especially after winning the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a Musical Comedy at the beginning of the year, this award is basically more stable.

Colin Farrell's performance has nothing to say, this role is also a test of performance, and the actor actually has no problem giving him.

However, as the awards season progressed, the situation also changed. Colin Farrell's chances of getting a actor are decreasing. The other two candidates became favorites.

One is "Elvis" actor Austin Butler, who beat many popular candidates at the just-concluded British Academy Film Awards to win best actor. At the same time, he also won the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor before, which added weight to his Oscar path.

Although, I never quite understood how good his performance in Elvis was. However, the innate advantage of celebrity biopics, coupled with his identity as a fresh face of Oscar, may have a plus. In short, he is now an Oscar winner.

And what can compete with him is the actor of "Whale", Brandon Fisher. Back then, he was not a handsome man, but also a male god in the hearts of many people, and now, this image has also shocked many people.

Brandon Fisher's disfiguring performance in "Whale" still impressed many people. In particular, he won the very important Screen Actors Guild Award (SAG) for Best Actor, which also made him officially a favorite for this year's Oscars.

Therefore, we can also see who will end up spending the scene of these three families competing for hegemony?

Best Supporting Actress

The competition for Best Supporting Actress is actually quite fierce.

"Instantaneous Universe" Jamie Lee Curtis won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Supporting Actress. As one of the few non-Asian actors in the film, her performance is also very good.

In addition, "Black Panther 2" plays her mother Angela Beset is also a favorite actress this year, she previously won the Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actress, will the Oscars be won again?

In addition, whether she will win the award in the end or not, it is also a great honor to be nominated. After all, Marvel movies have always been not treated well by the Oscar for acting, even if it was well received in North America, "Black Panther", which was nominated for Best Picture, did not have any nominations in the acting awards, and her nomination this time is also very groundbreaking for Marvel.

There is also a popular actress is Kerry Condon, the supporting actress of "Inischelin's Banshee", and from the performance alone, I quite like her performance in the film. She won Best Supporting Actress at the BAFTA Awards.

For the time being, it is possible for all three people, and it is really difficult to say who must have a chance. In contrast, Angela Beset of "Black Panther 2" is considered to have a better chance.

Best Supporting Actor

Unlike the fierce competition for several other actor awards, there is basically no suspense for Best Supporting Actor, and basically all outposts and media predictions believe that it will be Guan Jiwei of "Instantaneous Universe" who may win.

His performance in the film is indeed very good, and the role is likable, and it is not surprising that he can win an award.

In the Outpost Battle, he also won the Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actor, the Screen Actors Guild Award (SAG) for Best Supporting Actor and many other supporting actor awards.

Anyway, just come on.

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The analysis of the six major awards is these. Some other awards may not be so much attention.

Let me briefly list the popularity of media predictions:

For example, adapted scripts are generally optimistic about "Women's Conversation".

The original script is "Instantaneous Universe" slightly ahead, but "Inisherin's Banshee" is also popular.

The best photography is generally optimistic about "No War on the Western Front".

The best editing is still "Instantaneous Universe" is stronger, after all, this film mainly depends on the ability to edit.

The best costume design is basically "Elvis" and "Black Panther 2" are in contention, after all, both films focus on clothing, so the competition should be fierce.

Best makeup and hairstyling is also highly competitive, and "Elvis" and "Whale" really can't say who will win, after all, the looks of these two movies are quite fighting.

The best art direction should be "Babylon", and you can see why when you recall that film.

Best soundtrack, also "Babylon" received more attention.

The best original song may be the Indian god film "RRR", and the Indian film will also dominate the Oscar.

The best acoustics are basically "Top Gun 2", and this award is mainly for blockbusters.

Best visual effects, "Avatar 2", no suspense.

Best Animated Feature Film is generally considered to go to "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"

The best international film is basically "No War on the Western Front".

The best feature documentary is probably Navalny

Probably, this year's Oscars are like this, anyway, the awards will be presented on Monday, then we can see together, which ones will be won?

And if you want to predict the ownership of this year's Oscars, the above content hopes to give you some reference.