Under the "first big wave", the car entered the era of electrification. In the era of electrification, lithium batteries have become the core key of the entire new energy vehicle. Lithium, riding the east wind of vehicle electrification, has become a "new energy metal" comparable to "oil". Lithium prices peaked at more than 600,000 yuan / ton.
At present, we are on the eve of the "second wave" of new energy vehicles. Some people say that it is intelligent and connected, but I don't think so, this is just an inevitable trend in the future development of automobiles. I believe that the "second wave" of new energy vehicles is scale, and new energy vehicles have fully seized the traditional fuel vehicle market.
(1) The European Union has approved the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles from 2035.
(2) Tesla, began to sell at a reduced price. At the upcoming Tesla investor conference on March 1, Tesla will release the third chapter of the "grand plan". Regarding the third chapter, Musk has previously said that it is "fundamentally about scale." Industry speculation is that Tesla will discuss expansion plans, capital allocation and its third-generation car platform, or release information about cheap new models.
The scale of new energy vehicles is fundamentally more cost-effective than fuel vehicles.
Since the beginning of the year, Tesla has opened price reduction sales, which is releasing this signal.
How can new energy vehicles be more cost-effective than fuel vehicles? The most important point is to reduce costs. This is related to Tesla's "new technology to reduce costs": integrated die casting.
In the "first wave" of new energy vehicles, "lithium resources" stood on the wind. Under the "wave of scale" of new energy vehicles, who will stand on the cusp and become the most concerned "darling"?
This key raw material, which is expected to stand on the cusp of the times, is - electrolytic aluminum.
In the new energy vehicle body, column, chassis, shock absorber tower and other components integrated die-casting, the use of more aluminum alloy materials. Among them, die-cast aluminum alloy and other cast aluminum alloys account for about 80%.
"Electrolytic aluminum", as a "key raw material" under the "wave of scale", or will be expected to replicate the 10-fold myth of the "lithium king", the logic is as follows:
(1) The wave of "scale" of new energy vehicles continues to increase the demand for "aluminum alloys".
(2) At present, the production capacity of domestic "electrolytic aluminum" has reached the limit, and there is almost no room to improve production capacity.
Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the price of "electrolytic aluminum" is very likely to set off a wave of price increases.
The next are a few stock trends that the teacher boldly analyzed on this wave!
Shenhuo shares
Concept: anthracite, thermal coal, base metals.
Current Price: 18.87 Market Cap: 42.5 billion
The company is a well-known electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Henan Province and an important domestic coal enterprise. The gross profit margin of electrolytic aluminum is 34.9%, which is in the first echelon of the industry, with an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 1.7 million tons/year.
Technical: The company's share price corrected after hitting a new all-time high in the early stage. This pullback is generally reasonable and healthy. In terms of the general trend, the company's stock price maintains a long arrangement along the annual line, coupled with yesterday's Tesla press conference to vigorously promote new energy, and the probability of continuing to maintain a volatile rise is higher.
Nanshan Aluminum
Concept: New energy vehicle, lithium battery concept, general aviation
Current Price: 3.62 Market Cap: 42.6 billion
The company is a leading enterprise of domestic aluminum processing products, the company's electrolytic aluminum is mainly thermal power, and the high price of coal makes the company's cost at a high level. However, it is highly competitive in the domestic aluminum automotive exterior panel market.
It belongs to the non-ferrous metal industry, with strong profitability, good growth ability, good operating solvency and sufficient cash flow. The valuation is below the industry average, and the overall quality is good
Tianshan Aluminum
Concept: New energy vehicle, lithium battery concept, PPP environmental protection.
Current Price: 8.32 Market Cap: 39.9 billion
The company is a domestic electrolytic aluminum leader, the company has built 1.2 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Xinjiang, and has formed an upstream and downstream integrated layout of bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum-high-purity aluminum/power battery aluminum foil.
The fourth and most certain one.
The company is the most important hydropower aluminum production enterprise in China, and has formed an annual output of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.05 million tons of green aluminum, 800,000 tons of anode carbon, 1.4 million tons of aluminum alloy, 135,000 tons of aluminum plate strip and 36,000 tons of aluminum foil.
Among them, the proportion of green electricity in electricity consumption is about 85%, and the carbon emissions of green electricity and aluminum are only about 20% of coal power and aluminum.
At present, the company's stock price is more than 10 yuan, and the market value is more than 40 billion. The bottom rises, in an uptrend, MACD monthly golden cross, about to rise a round of monthly level of the big rally.