According to a number of British media reports, three years after "Brexit", the United Kingdom and the European Union are finally expected to reach a final final decision on remaining issues such as trade arrangements in Northern Ireland on Monday (27th) local time.
According to reports, after months of negotiations, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit the UK on the same day to meet with Prime Minister Sunak for "final negotiations." If the discussion goes well, the two will hold a joint press conference in the afternoon local time to announce the news.
Screenshot of the Financial Times report
"Now the question is how to get it past the finish line"
According to the British Sky News reported on the 27th, Downing Street revealed when announcing the details of the meeting that von der Leyen and Sunak are expected to meet in Berkshire at a later lunchtime. According to a joint statement issued by the two men, the two sides agreed to continue to work together personally to find shared and practical solutions to a complex set of challenges surrounding the Ireland and Northern Ireland Protocol.
The Prime Minister's Office said the UK and EU had held hundreds of hours of talks over the past few months, covering "all relevant issues" and making "positive and constructive progress". The Prime Minister's Office said Sunak wanted to ensure that any deal would solve practical problems, guarantee the free flow of trade across the UK, preserve Northern Ireland's position in the union and return sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland.
Sunak previously told the Sunday Times that his government was "going all" to resolve the Northern Ireland issue left over from Brexit, and said he would use the weekend to finalize the revised terms. The Financial Times, citing people with knowledge of the proposed agreement, said it was more than 100 pages long.
EU diplomats welcomed the breakthrough and said it was "the closest the two sides have come to resolving the protocol issue", which would bring Britain-EU relations "into a more constructive framework," the Financial Times said. Two EU and British officials also said the deal was "basically reached" and that "the question now is how to get it past the finish line".
It is reported that if an agreement is reached, Sunak is expected to hold an online cabinet meeting on the afternoon of the 27th to brief the situation and issue a statement to the House of Commons after a joint press conference.
On November 7, 2022, local time, during the COP27 conference in Egypt, British Prime Minister Sunak met with European Commission President von der Leyen. Image source: Visual China
EU makes 'major concessions'
After Brexit, in order to avoid intensifying tensions between different factions, the UK and EU reached the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2020, requiring the border inspection of British products entering the EU to be changed to between the island of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to prevent a land "hard border" on the island of Ireland.
However, the establishment of customs borders within the country has in fact brought inconvenience to the daily life of the people of Northern Ireland, and also disguised as allowing Northern Ireland to remain in the EU single market to abide by certain laws, aggravating the contradiction between the Anglophiles and independents in Northern Ireland. Last year, the Northern Ireland-loving Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) refused to participate in the coalition government after a new round of elections to "blackmail" the British government into changing the protocol.
In mid-June, Johnson's government proposed unilaterally amending parts of the protocol to seek to reduce border screening procedures. Under the revised plan, checks will be cancelled where goods entering Northern Ireland from the British Isles are not destined for the Republic of Ireland.
The plan has caused dissatisfaction in the EU. The European Commission launched legal action that same month, accusing the British government of failing to comply with the protocol, urging it to return to negotiations, but signaling that it would not renegotiate the content of the protocol, but would consult on the method of implementation. The UK parliament began legislative proceedings over planned changes to the protocol, after the British government and the European Union resumed technical negotiations last October.
Map of the United Kingdom
Sunak said it had prompted the EU to make "significant concessions". Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Minister Dominic Raab said: "No prime minister has ever negotiated such a good deal since 2016. A former cabinet official who spoke with Sunak was surprised by the extent of the bloc's concessions, saying Sunak "got a better deal than his predecessors."
Regarding the new agreement between the two sides, The Times previously disclosed that it is basically in line with the British side's idea of establishing a "red" and "green" channel system: goods shipped from other parts of the UK for sale in Northern Ireland are not subject to routine inspection, but goods exported by the UK to Ireland via Northern Ireland must go through normal customs procedures at Northern Ireland ports. The UK will share shipping information with the EU and launch investigations into suspicious activity.
For meat, live animals and other products imported into Northern Ireland, the two sides agreed to agree on a separate long-term agreement, and the British side agreed to maintain EU animal quarantine standards for such products. The Financial Times quoted people familiar with the agreement on the 27th as saying that the UK and Europe have also reached some arrangements to enable pets to travel freely between the British Isles and Northern Ireland without the need for passports and implanted chips.
For the first time, the EU also made a concession to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice over Northern Ireland, agreeing to accept cases only if the Northern Ireland District Court referred the case to the European Court of Justice. The European Court of Justice will act as the "ultimate arbiter" of the EU's single market rules, but the British side has won assurances that the case will not be transferred directly to the EU. Previously, the EU insisted on direct jurisdiction over Northern Ireland.
"Probably just the beginning"
However, foreign media generally believe that Sunak may still face challenges from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and his own "Eurosceptic" colleagues in his own Conservative Party on the Northern Ireland agreement, because under the new agreement, if the EU introduces a new law that contradicts British law, Northern Ireland must comply with the new EU law. In addition, Northern Ireland is also required to comply with a small part of the EU Single Market legislation.
Just last week, The Times reported that Home Secretary Braverman and another cabinet official threatened to resign, saying the protocol was one of the "biggest tools" the British government could use in negotiations with the EU, and Sunak intended to abandon it altogether. The Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party, which had set seven conditions for the new agreement, demanded that the full document of the new agreement be obtained before deciding whether to support it.
On the other hand, Deputy Prime Minister Raab said on the morning of the 26th that 10 Downing Street believes the agreement will gain enough support from Conservative MPs to win any vote in Parliament. The British "Independent" and "Financial Times" also believe that the agreement led by Sunak is likely to be passed in the House of Commons vote, because the largest opposition party, the Labour Party, has previously expressed support. However, Sunak himself does not want to rely on the votes of the opposition party to win.
British Sky News commented that trying to solve the Northern Ireland problem is Sunak's "biggest gamble" since taking office in April. Reuters also noted that if Sunak can win support for the agreement, he will be able to move beyond the most contentious issues on his agenda and strengthen his grip on the Conservative Party. But if he fails, he could face a rebellion by the "Eurosceptic" faction in the party, bringing back the deep ideological differences since the 2016 referendum to leave the EU.
Reuters also analyzed that even if Britain and Europe announce a new agreement, "it may just be the beginning." Sunak wants to achieve the success that his predecessors Johnson and Truss failed to get, but the move could "drown" his priorities at home. The UK is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections next year, and the Conservative Party currently has poor public support.
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