It's time to find a way to save imported films

The less imported films are, the greater the pressure on this year's box office targets.

Text/Pang Hongbo

The less imported films are, the greater the pressure on this year's box office targets.

After three years of "special hardship", after welcoming back the "helmsman", it is rumored that the box office target of this year's film market is "500". In the past two months, the film market has indeed ushered in a good start. In addition to the successful return of the Spring Festival file, the connection and finalization of imported films also means that the introduction work is back on track.

In the past three years, imported films have gradually "withdrawn", and the box office trend is very worrying. "Black Panther 2" is too lagging, and the final box office landing point may only be just over 100 million. And "Ant-Man 3" was released for 3 days, and the proportion of box office in a single day was already lower than the proportion of scheduled films, and in the end it may only be a movie within 300 million.

But everyone knows that this is not an isolated case of accidental loss, and the performance of imported films in the past three years has been extremely weak. In three years, only 4 "heads" with a volume of more than 1 billion were contributed, and only 3 films with a volume of 4-1 billion were produced, and the number of films exceeding 100 million was only 37.

This weakness is not just a question of whether imported films sell well in the Chinese market. The function of the imported film regulation market is gradually lost, then the pressure of the entire market will be concentrated on domestic films. However, for domestic films, the first difficulty is the "film shortage", and it is difficult to completely change the drawbacks of insufficient supply caused by blood loss for three years in a short period of time; The second difficulty is serious polarization, and the uneven market has become extremely obvious, which has led to a popular schedule that can only rely on the head pile, which is essentially not conducive to re-making movie-watching a mass entertainment consumption habit.

Therefore, the root of "rescuing" imported films is to "support" the film market throughout the year. If imported films still cannot usher in a "new three years", it will return to the basic balance with domestic films "June Fourth Open". Then the film market's desire to return to the "past" may be just empty talk.

1

—Imported films in the past three years, far more painful than expected—

Imported films are by no means optional.

For the film market, three years to the east and three years to the west. Imported films have experienced very different first and second halves in the past six years, especially in the past three years, which have basically been in a state of total defeat. The box office goal of this year's film market is to "guarantee 5 and fight for 6", but the first problem of "guarantee 5" is actually to solve the problem of imported films.

China's film market has officially entered the 50 billion era since 2017, and ushered in the most brilliant "golden three years" from 2017 to 2019. From 2020 to 2022, the film market quickly fell to the bottom and became a special hardship industry. Therefore, if you want to return to the 50 billion annual box office, you need to sort out the film market in the past six years, from which you can conclude the importance of the quality of imported films to the quality of the film market.

First of all, in the past six years, the Chinese film market has been completely "split", and imported films have experienced the whole process from "half-opening" to "gradual withdrawal".

From 2017 to 2019, a total of 263 films in the film market exceeded 100 million, and 49 head movies with more than 1 billion yuan. Among them, a total of 123 imported films exceeded 100 million, and 22 head films of more than 1 billion were films. This means that imported films account for 46.76% of the films that exceed 100 million, and the head films of more than 1 billion account for 44.89%, which is basically half separated from domestic films and is in a "balanced state".

But since 2020, imported films have quickly fallen out of favor. In the past "darkest three years", a total of 128 films in the film market exceeded 100 million, of which 25 were more than 1 billion head movies. However, only 37 imported films exceeded 100 million, and only 4 head films with more than 1 billion yuan. The number of films above 1 billion accounted for only 16%, and the number of films exceeding 100 million accounted for only 28.9%.

Secondly, the "box office fault" is the biggest pain point of imported films. A healthy and mature film market, in fact, can not only look at the quality of the head movies, but should look at whether the number of medium-sized films is sufficient, after all, medium-volume films can support the normal operation of the entire market.

In fact, from 2017 to 2019, there were a total of 66 films with a box office volume of 4 to 1 billion, of which imported films accounted for 31, accounting for 46.96%. This number is more than the number of films exceeding 100 million and films with a box office of more than 1 billion. This is also in line with the "market positioning" of imported films, after all, imported films used to carry the role of regulating the market in China, supporting the market in some cold and non-head periods, so the output of 4-1 billion films is crucial, and accounting for nearly half can also see that imported films are successfully completed the task.

However, since 2020, in the past three years, a total of 32 films with a volume of 4 to 1 billion in the Chinese film market have been produced, of which only 3 are imported films, accounting for less than 10%, which is a very shocking figure. Because the film market has been in a "disorderly" state in the past three years, coupled with social factors, the role of import film market regulation has been weakening. Coupled with multiple factors such as changes in aesthetic habits and the popularity of the market, imported films have ushered in a "three-year fault", with heads and tails, but the "mid-section films" that the Chinese film market really needs have been greatly reduced.

Finally, the head of the Chinese film market has been redefined in the past three years, and imported films have long ceased to be a hot topic of public opinion. In the past three years, a total of 4 imported films have exceeded 1 billion, of which "Jurassic World 3" and "Avatar 2" are the "key" to the two restarts of the film market last year. Imported films were forcibly arranged to "bail out", but the audience's concerns about watching movies and the decline in interest in imported films actually made imported films a "stepping stone". When the audience's interest in watching movies reaches its peak, it is difficult for imported films to enter the market, so imported films have ceased to be a hot spot of public opinion for most of the time.

6 of the top ten films in Chinese film history are films in the past three years, and among the 25 films that have exceeded 1 billion in the past three years, the highest-grossing "Avatar 2" is only ranked tenth.

The head is no longer an absolute head, which can adjust the lack of mid-section films in the market, and the pain of imported films in the Chinese market in the past three years is far more painful than expected. Therefore, imported films are now facing a repositioning problem, whether they are the "seasoning" of the Chinese film market or can deeply participate in the Chinese film market, and can once again play a "metronome" to adjust the market order.

2

—In the future, only the super head may be able to "make money"—

The head drives the audience to regain the "interest" of imported films.

In fact, the problem of imported films last year was very significant, "The New Batman" and "Fantastic Beasts 3" only produced box office results of just over 100 million in March and April, respectively. But the basic volume of these two films is by no means just movies in the early 100 millions. Although the box office failure of these two films can be attributed to social factors, the market heat has dropped to freezing point, and watching movies is no longer a rigid demand, so "market factors" have become the main reason for box office failure, but it is undeniable that imported films and audiences are now seriously divided in supply and demand.

This year is especially the current decline of "Ant-Man 3". Concerns about imported films reached a stage of peak. In March, there were still 5 imported films in the film market, but at present, it is basically difficult to have films with a box office of more than 400 million. If imported films still need domestic films to lead the market, then the film market has become inverted, and the challenges brought by the "switching" of the functions of the imported film and domestic film market are unprecedented.

However, it seems difficult to change in a short period of time, and there is an unchangeable gap between Hollywood's development logic for super-British films and the Chinese market's demand for imported films. From the current point of view, the audience has two clear preferences for imported films.

One category is "super audiovisual blockbusters", where sensory appeals will only be amplified and not lost. Imported films entering the Chinese market are actually driven in by audiovisual stimulation, and at present, although domestic films have made progress in production, the industry gap with Hollywood will not be completely flattened in the short term. On the one hand, "Avatar 2" is a "rescue work" for the restart of the Chinese film market, but on the other hand, the absolute advantage of the audiovisual level of this film is actually the lifeblood of the Chinese market.

The other category is the series sequel to the old super IP. This year, there are also sequels to the super IP series such as "Fast and Furious 10", "Transformers 7", "Mission Impossible 7", and "Aquaman 2", so as long as the schedule is relatively reasonable, such films can still activate the audience.

It's just that whether this kind of imported head blockbuster with a volume of more than 1 billion can meet market expectations is actually the most critical. If such films also have a box office "Waterloo", it will cast a greater shadow over the performance of imported films in the market this year. But compared with the past three years, this year looks sufficient in the number of imported films in the head, so it will make imported films less ugly in terms of data than in the past three years.

In addition, whether the top imported films can regain the confidence of young film audiences through continuous supply is actually crucial for the future performance of imported films in the domestic market.

3

—Imported films don't work, and the film market may not work —

Now is the time when we need imported films.

Due to the extremely worrying overall performance of imported films in the past three years, many people think that imported films have become dispensable. This self-confidence is actually a kind of conceit. Domestic films and imported films from "halves" to the current "two eight open", if the box office of the film market grows from 60 billion to 80 billion, then the Chinese film market may take off and become a film power. But from 60 billion to 30 billion, then the hidden dangers brought by "two eight kai" are endless.

Although the film market has been severely impacted in the past three years, the head film has ushered in a "comfortable environment". 6 of the top ten box office films in Chinese film history are domestic films in the past three years, and the box office champion of Chinese film history has also completed the replacement. The scale of the market is "cut in half", but the number of head movies increases, then the real operation of the entire market is actually very worrying.

Serious headingization brings about the reshaping of market order, and the market will inevitably be more uneven. On the one hand, for the producer, it is necessary to squeeze into the hot schedule to compete in a pile, then the profit pressure will increase sharply, and the film market has become a market with higher "gambling". On the other hand, for the audience, the movie has become a "holiday entertainment", which may also change the audience's evaluation standards, which is part of the reason why the audience has been more demanding on the film in the past two years.

Under the current industrial conditions, if the film market wants to recover, it must start with "people", that is, restore the scale of moviegoers, and increase the frequency and attendance rate. But in the past three years, a large number of moviegoers have faded, and attendance has become even worse. However, at present, the screen urgently needs to sink, and there is no foundation for the continuous rise in average ticket prices, so it can only be made from the "number of moviegoers".

However, imported films cannot play a role in activating the market in a relatively flat schedule, and a large number of domestic films are concentrated in individual schedules, so the risk of the film market will increase, which is a typical representative of a deformed market.

Therefore, whether the 50 billion goal is achieved or not, in fact, the key is not whether the Spring Festival file is tens of billions, but the return of the order that the film market should have. and the relative balance of the box office proportion of imported films and domestic films. In the case of not being able to influence the content of imported films, how imported films change the status quo through marketing and scheduling is actually related to the success or failure of the entire market.