(Report Producer/Analyst: Guosen Securities Huang Xiujie)
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="45" > event: The world's first "fourth-generation nuclear power" Huaneng Shidaowan high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant is critical</h1>
Recently, the No. 1 reactor of huaneng Shidaowan high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant demonstration project of Huaneng Shidaowan high-temperature gas-cooled reactor has reached a critical state for the first time, and the unit has officially started to operate with nuclear power, making significant progress and moving towards the goal of grid-connected power generation within the year.
Huaneng Shidaowan Nuclear Power Demonstration Project led by China Huaneng, jointly built by Tsinghua University and CNNC, with an installed capacity of 200,000 kilowatts, started construction in Rongcheng, Shandong At the end of 2012, it is China's completely independent intellectual property rights, the world's first ball bed modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor that reaches the characteristics of the fourth generation of nuclear power, and is one of the preferred reactor types for China's implementation of the "going out" strategy of nuclear power, and has been listed in the sixteen major national science and technology projects together with the lunar exploration project and Beidou navigation.
There are six main design concepts for fourth-generation nuclear power technology, including three fast neutron reactors: sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactors (LFR) and gas-cooled fast reactors (GFR) with advanced fuel cycles.
The three types of hot neutron reactors are supercritical water-cooled reactors (SCWRs), ultra-high temperature gas-cooled reactors (VHTR) and molten salt reactors (MSRs).
Huaneng Shidaowan Nuclear Power Plant adopts high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM) (belongs to the ultra-high temperature gas-cooled reactor technology route), does not use water in the cooling process, usually uses graphite as a moderator, helium as a coolant, the outlet temperature of the reactor core can reach 800-1000 °C, and the high temperature increases the power generation efficiency by more than 30% (the water-cooled reactor that is now commonly used can only produce a high temperature of 300 °C).
At the same time, it has the following main technical advantages:
(1) The high-temperature gas-cooled reactor makes full use of the high-performance fuel element and uses the large negative temperature coefficient to realize the inherent safety characteristics of the reactor and eliminate the possibility of serious radioactive accidents. Its thermal efficiency is high (more than 40%), the fuel consumption is deep (up to 20MWd/t uranium), the conversion ratio is high (0.7 ~ 0.8), and the water cooling is replaced by air cooling, without consuming a lot of water resources, and can be built and operated in places where water is scarce.
(2) Ball bed modular type refers to the use of all-ceramic coated pellet fuel element balls to further realize the discharge of non-dynamic waste heat, avoid core melting accidents, achieve effective control of reactivity, and do not stop stacking and changing materials. Modular construction significantly shortens the construction period, improves economics and environmental suitability.
Based on its advantages of gas cooling, inherent safety, high power generation efficiency, strong economy and many other advantages, the "fourth generation" nuclear power can be built and applied inland or in a wider range of the country, greatly expanding the scope of use and market space of nuclear power, and at the same time providing a foundation for the further landing of nuclear energy cogeneration and heat electrolytic hydrogen, providing important support for China's energy security and achieving the goal of "double carbon".
In addition, Gansu Wuwei Thorium-based Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR), which adopts another "fourth-generation nuclear power" technical route in China,
Construction began in 2018 and was basically completed in May 2021, and trial operation is expected to be started in the near future (the experimental nature is less power). The technology uses molten salt fuel and thorium-232 as a breeding fuel, using thorium-uranium cycle capacity, converting thorium-232 into uranium-233 in a hot neutron reactor, and then separating uranium-233 back into the reactor for recycling.
The project technology has the characteristics of high safety factor and low risk of leakage, and the thermoelectric conversion efficiency can reach 45%-50%. At the same time, the environmental compatibility is large, the coolant of the thorium-based reactor is a composite fluorinated salt, without consuming a large amount of water resources, the thorium ore resources are far more abundant than uranium and plutonium, and the thorium-based nuclear waste is also less (less than 1 ‰ of the uranium and plutonium nuclear reactors), which is also conducive to the wider promotion of nuclear power.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="10" >1, the overall operation of nuclear power in China</h1>
According to the "National Nuclear Power Operation from January to June 2021" issued by the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, the cumulative power generation capacity of nuclear power units in the country from January to June 2021 was 195.09 billion kWh, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, accounting for 5.0% of the country's cumulative power generation. The cumulative online electricity consumption was 183.05 billion kWh, an increase of 14.1% year-on-year.
Compared with coal-fired power generation, the combustion of standard coal was reduced by 55.17 million tons and the emission of carbon dioxide was reduced by 140 million tons.
From January to June 2021, the utilization hours of nuclear power equipment were 3772 hours, and the average unit capacity factor was 90.9%.
As of June 30, 2021, China has a total of 51 nuclear power units (excluding Taiwan) with an installed capacity of 53275MWe (rated installed capacity).
Figure 4: China's nuclear power generation and its proportion of total power generation (100 million kWh)
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="49" >2, nuclear power operations are concentrated, showing a "2+2" pattern with clear primary and secondary priorities</h1>
Due to the particularity of the nuclear power industry and the complexity of nuclear power technology, there are extremely high technical and administrative barriers to entry.
China's nuclear power projects officially approved by the State Council (except demonstration projects and research reactors) will be developed and operated by CGNPC, China Nuclear Power and State Power Investment Corporation respectively or cooperatively before 2020, of which CGN (excluding 42.5% of the joint venture; including 53% of the joint venture) and China Nuclear Power (42.3%) have a total installed capacity of more than 90%, which is the two leading enterprises in the development and operation of nuclear power in China.
Except for a small number of projects under construction, nuclear power plants are basically controlled by China General Nuclear Power and China's listed nuclear power companies. The number and scale of power stations operated by SPC are relatively small.
In 2020, Huaneng Group obtained the approval of the second phase of the Changjiang Nuclear Power Plant, the first large-scale PWR nuclear power project to be controlled. The project officially started construction in March 2021, becoming the first nuclear power project to start construction in China's "14th Five-Year Plan".
Therefore, and Huaneng Group belong to two group companies with nuclear power development capabilities, and participate in the development of a small number of projects and gradually develop.
At the same time, some nuclear power assets do not currently belong to the listed company system. Therefore, at present, the development and operation of nuclear power shows a trend of "2+2" pattern with clear priority and subordination.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="56" >3, listed companies are mainly under construction projects and planning</h1>
China General Nuclear Power
As of the first half of 2021, China General Nuclear Power manages 24 nuclear power units in operation and 7 nuclear power units under construction (including 3 units under construction entrusted by the Company's controlling shareholders) with installed capacities of 27,142 MW and 8,210 MW respectively, accounting for 52.04% and 46.79% of the total installed capacity of nuclear power in operation and under construction in the country, and 50.72% of the total installed capacity of nuclear power in the country.
In the first half of 2021, the amount of electricity on the grid for commercial nuclear power units nationwide was 183.051 billion kWh. The total on-grid electricity of nuclear power plants managed by China General Nuclear Power is 95.227 billion kWh, accounting for 52.02% of the national nuclear power units.
At present, the installed machines mainly include Fangchenggang Units 3 and 4, Hongyanhe Units 5 and 6 (joint venture) groups, Huizhou Taipingling Units 1 and 2, and Cangnan Unit 1 (entrusted by the controlling shareholder).
By 2035, the company plans to build a world-class nuclear energy enterprise with global competitiveness, with an installed capacity of nuclear power exceeding 70 million kilowatts, achieving the world's largest total installed capacity under construction.
China Nuclear Power
As of the end of July 2021, China Nuclear Power Holdings had a total of 24 nuclear power units in operation, with a total installed capacity of 22.509 million kilowatts, accounting for about 42.25% of the country's commercial nuclear power units; holding 6 nuclear power units under construction with an installed capacity of 6.258 million kilowatts; holding 2 approved nuclear power units with an installed capacity of 2.548 million kilowatts.
From the beginning of the year to the end of July 2021, the company has put a total of 2 units into commercial operation, namely Fuqing No. 5 (hualong No. 1 global first reactor) and Tianwan Unit 6; three units are put into construction, namely Tianwan Unit 7, Xudabao Unit 3 (all using Russian VVER1200 technology) and Hainan Changjiang Linglong No. 1 small reactor demonstration project.
The current installed capacity of China's nuclear power mainly includes: Zhangzhou Energy No. 1 and No. 2, Tianwan No. 7 and No. 8, Xudabao No. 3 and No. 4 and Hainan Changjiang Linglong No. 1 Small Reactor Demonstration Project.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="66" >4, technology gradually achieved catch-up, driving the development of nuclear power to help "double carbon"</h1>
The research and development cycle of nuclear power technology and the construction cycle of power stations are relatively long.
It needs to go through from the technical concept and specification to the research and development and upgrading of the technology itself, and then to the investment in construction to achieve the landing of the project, and at present, only the project construction cycle basically takes about 60 months.
At present, China's existing projects are still dominated by second-generation nuclear power technology, while newly put into operation units are upgraded to third-generation nuclear power, and there are certain technical differences between the design of new production projects and mainstream operation projects.
However, benefiting from the acceleration of China's technology research and development, the fourth generation of nuclear power technology has also begun to land ahead of the world.
According to the World Nuclear Association, as of June 30, 2021, 32 countries around the world have nuclear power generation, a total of 443 nuclear power units in operation, with a total installed capacity of about 394.282 million kilowatts, accounting for about 5.3% of the world's total installed power capacity; there are 56 units under construction worldwide, with a total installed capacity of about 62.394 million kilowatts.
The total global nuclear power generation capacity is 2,553 billion kWh, accounting for about 10% of the power mix, of which France is as high as 70.6% and the United States accounts for 19.7%.
Compared with some developed countries with a high proportion of nuclear power use in the world, coupled with the comprehensive resource conditions such as Chinese and geography, there is still room for improvement in China's nuclear power generation capacity and installed capacity, and nuclear power is expected to accelerate under the leadership of China's nuclear power technology gradually catching up.
In March 2021, the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035 were released, pointing out that it is necessary to "actively and orderly promote the construction of coastal third-generation nuclear power."
Promote the demonstration of advanced reactor types such as modular small reactors, 600,000 kilowatt-class commercial high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, and offshore floating nuclear power platforms. "The installed capacity of nuclear power operation reaches 70 million kilowatts.".
On April 19, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2021, which clearly stated that "the active and orderly development of nuclear power under the premise of ensuring safety" is clearly proposed.
Referring to the forecast of the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, it is expected that by 2025, the installed capacity of nuclear power in China will reach about 70 million kilowatts, and the scale of installed capacity under construction will be close to 40 million kilowatts; by 2035, the installed capacity of nuclear power in operation and under construction in China will reach about 200 million kilowatts, and the power generation capacity will account for about 10% of the country's power generation.
The next 15 years will be an important strategic opportunity period for China to move from a nuclear power to a nuclear power, and at the same time, it is also in line with the critical period of China's carbon peak carbon neutrality goal, and nuclear power will become an important support. Especially in nuclear energy, as the ultimate energy source for mankind to see the future, I believe that China will continue to attach importance to the research and development and utilization of nuclear energy.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="77" > (4) Core ideas:</h1>
Under the background of carbon neutrality, it is recommended that the new energy industry chain + comprehensive energy management be recommended
utility:
1. "Carbon peak carbon neutrality" establishes a new energy high-growth track, and we estimate that the CAGR of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2020-2030 will be 12% and 17% respectively;
2. Continuous progress of technology and steady decline in cost;
3. The new project subsidies do not bring stable cash flow, abs, ABN, factoring, confirmed rights loans and other financial instruments to revitalize the stock of accounts receivable;
4. Green electricity trading, power reform and new power system construction will be deeply beneficial to new energy generation and power generation and energy integrated services.
Industry Companies:
Suwen Electric Energy, a comprehensive service provider of electric energy; China Resources Power, a thermal power leader that actively transforms new energy and has abundant cash flow; Three Gorges Energy, Longyuan Power, and CGN New Energy, a new energy operator with capital cost advantages and resource reserve advantages, benefit from the rise in gas prices.
Environmental protection industry:
1. High performance and low valuation;
2. The business model is improved and the operating indicators continue to improve;
3. The stable increase in operational attributes has emerged, and the profitability and cash flow indicators have continued to improve.
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