Six months ago, Pioli was the meritorious coach who led AC Milan back to the Serie A throne after 11 years. Two months ago, when AC Milan reached the knockout stages of the Champions League again after nine years, everything looked so good.
After the World Cup was played, from the warm-up game to the main game, only 1 of the past 10 games was won, especially the 3 consecutive defeats, and Pioli, who could not find a way forward and used tactics, really remembered the sound of class in his ears.
01. Only 1 win in the last 10 games: 3 defeats, an average of 4 goals conceded per game
a. From 3 consecutive defeats in the warm-up game and conceded 9 goals: to 3 consecutive defeats in the main match, 12 goals concededed
From the start of three consecutive defeats and nine goals in the warm-up games in preparation for the winter break, it seems to be an early warning sign. At that time, it was also possible to prevaricate with disheveled personnel and strong opponents (1-2 Arsenal, 1-4 Liverpool and 0-3 PSV Eindhoven).
However, after returning to the main tournament and opening their first match, AC Milan have drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 6 games, especially the latest wave of 3 consecutive defeats, conceding 12 goals. With an average of 4 points per game, team morale fell to the bottom.
In particular, the 2-5 home game at Sassuolo is the first time in the 21st century that the Rossoneri have suffered such humiliation on their home turf.
AC Milan conceded five goals at home for the first time since losing 6-1 at home to Juventus in 1997 and the eighth time in the club's 100-year history.
In the current standings, AC Milan have fallen to 5th in the league and out of the Champions League zone.
Not being able to defend the Serie A title is just a bit of a shame after all, and it will hit the team even harder if next season is not able to compete in Europe's top competition.
Pioli could put some of the blame on the uniform group, as the team's new signings in the summer window have played the last minutes in Serie A this season.
The goals and assists contributed are also in the bottom ranks (2 goals and 3 assists have not yet counted Origi's goals in this round, and can be ranked 15th after counting).
02. Pioli's tactics are old: if you can't 1-0, you will be 0-4
A. Pioli can't wait for 1-0, so it will be 0-4
Starting with this wave of three consecutive defeats, the 0-3 defeat to Inter in the Super Cup can be seen. The current formation of AC Milan is somewhat similar to 424, the problem is that the pressing and defensive presence rate up front has decreased compared to last season.
At the same time, left-back Te'o likes to insert forward, and when the attack and defense are converted, the number of backcourt is even less than 6, and the double back covers too large an area, requiring the central defender to undertake a heavy sweeping task.
This kind of overall formation forward pressing style has high requirements for morale and overall fighting spirit. It is dangerous for the team to continue this tactic when it is not winning.
Pioli was desperate to win 1-0 in the game, and the problem was that he couldn't ask for it. Had Giroud Giroud's header not been disallowed for a slight offside, perhaps the game would not have been on the verge of conceding five goals.
Looking at the attack this time, Giroud is still in good shape. Rebic also got plenty of chances, and the problem was that a lot of goals were missed.
If Rebic had outflanked the ball into the goal, and perhaps kicked, luck would have been so unfavorable.
b. Madness under the 424 formation: The defender cannot support the current system
In the figure below, the X-axis is the number of quick counter-tackles per 90 minutes (the pressing within 5 seconds after the side loses the ball), and the Y-axis is the successful recovery of the ball.
AC Milan, who have a high formation position, can only be regarded as mid-table in terms of total number of times, and although the success rate is not bad, but under such an aggressive style of play, there is no large number of defenders as a basis for rescue, then the problem arises.
Especially against Sassuolo, Pioli let the slower Krunic play one of the two backs, resulting in opponents counterattacking, often only Tonali single-handedly moved to protect the midfield line.
The opponent is too easy to drive straight in, and AC Milan's defensive end needs to have no strength (lack of physical superiority of the confrontation point) and density without density (lack of overall defensive position).
This time can be said to be typical, central defender Gabia went to the center circle but could not break the ball. The opponent's back row started and stepped forward, but Tonali failed to get stuck in position, so the mid-abdominal portal was opened.
The opponent easily advanced to the 30-meter area, split the flank, and played one-on-one full-back to shoot directly.
With a small number of defenders, it is necessary to rely on more efficient confrontation. The problem is that Gabia is in front of the top, and Tonali alone cannot block the opponent who starts up from the back (after all, he cannot crush the opponent in terms of strength).
Kalulu must move sideways to protect the near middle at this time, so the space at the far back point will naturally be enlarged, and even the opponent will have the opportunity to directly give the inside line and impact the Milan full-back at the end.
Against Lazio, there was also a shortage of defenders in midfield, and Kalulu wanted to fill the gap in the centre-back.
When he had the intention to move in front, Pedro shoved straight to Marusic and directly pierced the space behind Dest.
AC Milan's centre-backs are arguably not strong enough to support a whole system. Then the team's full-backs can only be said to be weak.
Dest was crushed by his opponent, and Zakani, who followed at the back post, also ignored Calabria's defence and scored in front of his eyes.
The fourth goal conceded in the battle against Lazio was still Kalulu taking a step forward, and then Dest actually lost Anderson in front of him. He also seems to want to press forward, and the moment he conceded the goal, it was somewhat speechless.
But even Calabria is only a little more responsible and hardworking than Dest. When Sassuolo used Kalulu to step forward and hit him straight behind him, the right-back could only end up sending in a penalty foul in the box.
03. Here comes a targeted tactical strike: Pioli doesn't want to change, and he should leave class
a. Targeted tactical strikes: find space behind full-backs
From another set of statistics, it can be seen that the number of passes under pressure of AC Milan is low in Serie A.
This is related to the coach's tactical choice (AC Milan has more attackers with the ball in the front), and on the other hand, it also shows the hidden dangers of the team.
After breaking the ball, he directly chose to transfer the space behind the full-back playing AC Milan's weak side. Especially Te'o, who likes assists, will have a big problem.
Because AC Milan only has a double back, it is very difficult to make up for it if there is a mistake in the advance. The full-backs are not in the defensive zone, so the space will be very large.
After the decline in morale, AC Milan conceded more goals in front and fewer successful tackles, so there were more and more shots of the opponent counterattacking more and less.
The same goes for the game against Lazio, with 4-on-3 chances on the counter-attack.
AC Milan couldn't come back in midfield, and defenders found themselves with too many forward insertions to defend and had no idea which person to focus on.
With a large number of people on the defensive end, things will be easier, and with a small number of people on the defensive end, success requires strength or miracles.
Milinkovic's shot so easily was because Milan defenders were hesitant to follow anyone.
b. Imagination is needed to attract signings? The change of coach naturally cannot afford to pay liquidated damages
In the team's current predicament, the best solution is to bring in or change the manager.
However, Italian journalist Colombo has previously revealed that AC Milan has a budget of 0 in the winter window, and can only loan players or complete deals through "imaginative" methods.
Even because he has no money, firing Pioli is not a viable option, after all, to pay liquidated damages, unless he voluntarily resigns, it is difficult to change.
Blocking these two paths, the only thing AC Milan fans can hope for is to dig into the team, or Pioli suddenly thinks of a new tactic.
Origi's goal was beautiful, and if he can find form, it might make some difference to the team. Similarly, de Ketlare needs more trust, treating "dead horses as living horse doctors" and waiting for his enlightenment.
Conclusion:
The pace of change in today's football is really too fast. The cycle of use of a set of tactics may be difficult to survive a season.
It's no surprise that Pioli has hit a bottleneck. Coupled with the unsuccessful integration of new signings, the problem will erupt further. There are only a few fastest ways to reverse the decline, and if AC Milan can't do that, they'll have to be blessed.