Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the Chinese population in 2022 decreased by 850,000 compared with the end of the previous year, which means that the Chinese population has seen negative growth for the first time in nearly 61 years.
Everyone is not surprised by the emergence of negative growth, but the question behind the numbers raises concerns, how should the fertility rate be increased? The hot discussion has dominated the hot search list these days - yesterday, "Can shortening the time of education increase fertility?" "Weibo topics have been read more than 300 million; A week ago, the "Shenzhen childcare subsidy standard solicitation opinion" even proposed to give birth to families for three years of cumulative subsidies, one child 7,500 yuan, two children 11,000 yuan, three children 19,000 yuan, the debate extended from the comment area to various social media...
China has entered the social stage of low fertility, a few years ago, various places have successively introduced policies to encourage childbirth, the most direct is cash subsidies, so the question is, send you money, are you willing to have children?
The first daddy in the country to receive childcare subsidies: diapers don't have to pay for themselves
"Our family receives a monthly subsidy of 500 yuan, which covers about half of the childcare expenses." Yang Jun, the father of the second child in Donghua Street, Panzhihua City, showed the "Zhijiang Chao" reporter the latest monthly bill: this year's one-and-a-half-year-old daughter will spend 455 yuan on diapers, 315 yuan in milk powder, 246 yuan in toys and clothes, a total of 1,016 yuan.
Yang Jun is the first person in the country to apply for childcare subsidies - from June 12, 2021, Panzhihua took the lead in implementing the incentive policy, and those who give birth to a second or more child can declare a childcare subsidy of 500 yuan per month, and until the child is 3 years old, a total of 18,000 yuan can be received.
Yang Jun (first from left) with his family. Photo courtesy of the Publicity Department of the Panzhihua Municipal Party Committee
Has the childcare subsidy allowed Panzhihua citizens to have more children? "Compared with the year before the implementation of the policy, from July 2021 to June 2022, the birth of two children increased by 5.58%, and the birth of three children increased by 168.40%." The relevant person in charge of the local municipal government told the "Zhijiang Chao" reporter. The latest data for the second half of 2022 has not yet been released, but in the view of the local government, "under the superposition of the effects of the national comprehensive three-child birth policy and the city's childcare subsidy policy, citizens' enthusiasm for childbirth has indeed improved." ”
By the end of last year, Yang Jun had received 3,500 yuan, and the childcare subsidy for 2022 will be cashed in the first quarter of this year. With this policy, is Yang Jun willing to have three children? "Don't think about it, no one brings a baby." Yang Jun's answer was realistic.
Although Yang Jun was not encouraged to have three children, the positive stimulus of the childcare subsidy to the local area is still obvious. Li Qing (pseudonym), who works in an enterprise in Panzhihua City, is of childbearing age and has been hesitating whether to give birth or not. She noticed that within a year and a half after the introduction of the policy, five or six colleagues who were interested in having a second child had become pregnant and gave birth to babies one after another, and everyone generally believed that "it is better to have this money than no money." ”
On social media such as Weibo and Douyin, there is no lack of similar views to Li Qing's colleagues, and the securities market has also responded with stock prices. The day after Shenzhen solicited opinions, the two shares of Jinfa Rabi and Anel in the A-share three-child concept sector rose to the limit, and according to the Securities Times, there were as many as 24 three-child concept stocks with a net inflow of more than 5 million yuan. Among them, the blonde rabbi even rose the limit for 4 consecutive trading days.
In Chinese history, the most famous encouragement of childbearing originated from the practice of collusion more than 2,500 years ago, Chinese Yue Yue recorded, "If a woman does not marry seventeen, her parents are guilty; If the husband does not marry at twenty, his parents are guilty. "In addition, give birth to a boy, and Yue Guo rewards two jugs of wine and a dog; Give birth to a girl, reward two jugs of wine and a pig ... The final result is that everyone also knows that the demographic dividend brought by the policy has tilted the balance of Wu Yue's hegemony towards collusion.
Nowadays, in many cities in China, the amount of childcare subsidies mostly ranges from 2,000 yuan to 40,000 yuan, such as the Daxing'anling area of Heilongjiang Province, a one-time incentive of 20,000 yuan is given for the birth of three children, and a childcare subsidy of 500 yuan per month is issued before the child turns 3.
Childcare subsidies are only one of the government's "policy toolbox", in addition to a series of policy combinations such as house purchase indicators, childcare services, and education burden reduction, such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Changsha and other places, "two-child or three-child families are allowed to purchase an additional set of housing"; Linze County and Jinan City, Gansu Province, providing subsidies for two- and three-child families to purchase houses and increasing the amount of provident fund loans; Suzhou, Hefei and other places have increased financial support to solve the problem of childcare for children aged 0-3.
Hangzhou people who gave birth to two babies in Japan: they have money every month, but raising babies is far from enough
Local government policies are frequent, can the distribution of money and subsidies promote a great change in China's fertility rate? In the view of Ren Yuan, a professor at the Institute of Population Research of Fudan University, it is unlikely, "The fertility rate decline in Japan and South Korea is earlier than in China, and at the same time, China, Japan and South Korea have cultural similarities, so the fertility support policies provided by Japan and South Korea in the context of low fertility rates have great inspiration for the mainland's fertility services and support policy formulation." Ren Yuan said, "From the available literature, the actual effect of the birth allowance policy in Japan and South Korea is not ideal." ”
"In Japan, subsidies do reduce some of the cost of raising children, but the matter of whether or not to have children does not see much impact." Wang Yaru (pseudonym), a Hangzhou native who has lived in Osaka, Japan, for 24 years and gave birth to two children, said.
Wang Yaru and her husband are Zhejiang residents with permanent residence status in Japan, "As long as I join Japan's health insurance, I can enjoy benefits and subsidies during pregnancy and after the birth of my child, and I have both children when I give birth." "In my office, of the 12 women, only two have children, one is married and has no children, and the other nine are single." "These subsidies and policies have not impressed Japanese women to get married and have children. Reflected in the Japanese property market, the most popular apartments in the market are mainly one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments.
In 2000, Wang Yaru went to Japan to study, and in 2005, when her first child was born, the Japanese government provided 300,000 yen (about 16,000 yuan), and since April 1 this year, this figure has risen to 500,000 yen (about 26,000 yuan), "enough to pay for the cost of giving birth in the hospital." After the birth of her daughter, Wang Yaru received a childcare allowance of 15,000 yen (about 786 yuan) a month until her daughter was 3 years old.
After that, Wang Yaru received a child allowance of 10,000 yen (about 524 yuan) a month until March 31, the first month after her daughter's 15th birthday.
In 2012, Wang Yaru's son was born, and the monthly childcare allowance and child allowance received were the same amount, but compared with the cost of childcare, these money are a drop in the bucket, "If you go to a public school, the cost of education is not expensive, but the private school my daughter has attended since junior high school, the tuition fee is 870,000 yen (about 45,000 yuan) a year, plus teaching and auxiliary fees, it costs more than 1 million yen (about 52,000 yuan) a year." ”
The policy that makes Wang Yaru most worry-free is the medical subsidy for children, "from elementary school to high school graduation at the age of 18, the child can be fully reimbursed for the part exceeding 500 yen (about 26 yuan) per visit, and the maximum monthly payment is 1,500 yen (about 78 yuan). ”
From the perspective of changes in Japan's total fertility rate, from 1.6 in 1990, 1.37 in 2000, 1.34 in 2010 to 1.3 in 2020, the overall trend is stable at a low level and slightly declining, reflecting that Japan's fertility support measures have not promoted an effective increase in fertility.
At the same time, policies across Japan are also increasing, and just last week, Tokyo announced the abolition of the second-child childcare fee, saving another amount of money on the cost of raising a baby.
Correspondingly, China's total fertility rate was 1.3 in 2020 and only 1.15 in 2021, and the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics today show that 9.56 million births in China in 2022, and encouraging fertility has to be done.
"Whether in East Asia or Europe, there are abundant policy tools for fertility and family development, and different policies have different impacts on fertility intentions and behaviors." Ren concluded.
Maternity insurance, flexible employment, GSP childcare... The matter of having a baby requires more and more social support
In Zhejiang and the Yangtze River Delta region, how do young people view the policy of encouraging fertility?
The reporter of "Zhijiang Chao" conducted a questionnaire survey on marriageable young people in the Yangtze River Delta, and 58.59% of them were not impressed by the subsidy figure of "up to 19,000 yuan for giving birth to three children" in the draft for comments in Shenzhen, and chose "unwilling to have children"; "If multi-child families enjoy more subsidies, how many are you willing to have?" Among the questions, 61.35% of people were only willing to give birth to 1, 34.36% were willing to give birth to 2, and the proportion of 3 or more people was very small, and some respondents responded to "not give birth to one" and "why should they give birth".
"For a long time to come, people's willingness to have children in the Yangtze River Delta region should still be low." In Ren Yuan's view, the high cost of childbirth in economically developed areas, such as Shenzhen's proposed subsidy policy to encourage childbirth, the effect will not be particularly obvious.
What are the factors that dare not have a baby? Based on the results of another questionnaire survey, concerns about income, housing, bringing children, education and other aspects accounted for more than 60%, and the economic pressure of raising children became the most important factor. Many participants also pointed to factors such as "social welfare security" and "the impact of women's careers".
Giving money cannot effectively encourage fertility, so what should society do? "There are many ways to take parental leave, breastfeeding leave, tax exemptions, work and family support, enterprises provide maternity insurance, and flexible employment systems, and it is necessary to understand the most urgent difficulties and urgent needs of the people, so as to increase people's livelihood and well-being." Ren Yuan suggested that it is necessary to provide appropriate fertility support policies based on the specific needs of people in different regions.
"Raising fertility is not just a medical issue, it's a social issue." Zhou Jianhong, a member of the Zhejiang Provincial Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and director of the Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital Affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine, said that at this year's Zhejiang Provincial Two Sessions, she brought a proposal focusing on infants aged 0-6 and women of appropriate age who married and had children, and proposed to set up elective subjects in reproductive health education in university courses from the perspective of obstetricians and gynecologists to promote fertility intentions. In addition, Zhou Jianhong suggested that more expensive tests such as amniocentesis and chromosome tests should be included in medical insurance, and the cesarean section rate should be reduced.
From the perspective of "good education in Zhejiang", Zhejiang also introduced an implementation plan last year, from the escort of giving birth to the cultivation of infant and child care talents, aiming at the problems of "birth" and "education".
Ren Yuan also gave a similar suggestion, "In cities, the miniaturization of families and the busy work of young couples make it difficult to take care of infants and young children, and in these areas, childcare services for infants and young children and other childcare facilities are most needed, and the childcare policy of the Generalized System of Preferences should be strengthened." ”
In addition, the main childbearing age group in today's society is the post-80s and post-90s population, and the post-00s population is about to join or has begun to join the fertility team. For different age groups, Ren Yuan proposed that there should be different services and systems, such as young people to support marriage; The population in the childbearing period should be given service support for maternity leave, paternity leave, and infant and child care, and for older women giving birth, services for older women should be strengthened.