Yoon Seok-yue mentions South Korea's "independent nuclear possession": knowing that it cannot be said?

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue. Visual China infographic

"If [the North Korean nuclear issue] escalates further, South Korea may deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess nuclear weapons of its own." South Korean President Yoon Seok-hyeol said on January 11 while listening to reports from the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry. Although there has been a lot of talk in South Korea in recent years, when the independent ownership comes from the president's mouth, the meaning is naturally different.

The New York Times reported on January 12 that this was the first time a South Korean president had officially mentioned arming countries with nuclear weapons since the United States withdrew strategic nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991.

South Korea is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and its autonomous possession of nuclear weapons not only violates the Treaty, but also runs counter to the principle of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula shared by South Korea and the United States. Yoon Seok-yue's remarks caused controversy, and the South Korean presidential office urgently "put out the fire" the next day, explaining that the president's reference to the possibility of possessing nuclear weapons is only "theoretical", and from a realistic point of view, it is more important to strengthen and extend deterrence based on the South Korea-US alliance to deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.

Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that Yoon Xiyue's remarks not only represent himself, but also represent at least such a strong voice within the South Korean government, but the possibility of realizing it in the near future is very small. South Korea is indeed very worried about security at present, and this kind of statement can reassure the people, and does not exclude the consideration of putting pressure on the United States to "bargain" with the United States. However, the Biden administration is unlikely to deploy tactical nuclear weapons or strategic assets in South Korea in the near future.

"Yoon's real goal is to put some kind of pressure on both North Korea and the United States in this way, and he wants to urge China to put some kind of pressure on North Korea by sending this message." Li Min, an assistant researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told The Paper that although his remarks released a little sign of danger, there was no need to over-explain.

South Korea wants to have nuclear weapons, the United States: no

In South Korea, there are many voices in favor of nuclear possession, especially among young people. According to a public opinion survey released by the "Chosun Ilbo" on the 11th, 68.1% of South Korean people aged 20 to 39 are in favor of having nuclear weapons, 31.9% are opposed, and more than eighty percent of those who support nuclear weapons say they "feel threatened" to North Korea's nuclear weapons.

The United States has pledged to provide a nuclear umbrella to South Korea, where it currently retains 28,500 troops. As North Korea continues to test missiles and accelerate its nuclear buildup, many South Koreans question whether the United States will prevent North Korea from attacking South Korea. Since October last year, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have escalated again, and South Korean politics have frequently talked about various "extended deterrence" options, such as redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and sharing nuclear weapons with the United States.

Li Min, assistant researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told The Paper that if North Korea carries out a nuclear strike on South Korea, according to the existing agreement between the United States and South Korea, the US military will launch a nuclear counterattack, and if it does so, the United States will bear the risk that its own homeland may be hit by North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile. Under such circumstances, whether the United States can really make up its mind is a matter of great concern among both scholars and the private sector in South Korea, which is why there have always been voices in South Korea that possess nuclear weapons.

South Korea has a strong desire to tie ties to the United States on nuclear weapons. In an interview published in the Chosun Ilbo on January 1, Yoon Seok-yue said that South Korea and the United States are discussing the use of the concept of "joint planning and joint exercises" for the United States' nuclear combat capabilities, but when asked about the nuclear exercise plan, US President Joe Biden said "no."

Some South Korean lawmakers have called for the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in South Korea, possibly through the permanent deployment of nuclear submarines or aircraft carriers in nearby waters. Others have suggested using the NATO approach to train South Koreans to deliver U.S. nuclear weapons in a conflict. However, the United States has never "relaxed" its efforts to deploy nuclear weapons in South Korea. Last October, the U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Philip Goldberg, publicly stated that "all this discussion of tactical nuclear weapons, whether from Russia or North Korea, is irresponsible and dangerous."

This time, in response to Yoon Seok-yue's "independent possession of nuclear weapons" remarks, John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator of the White House National Security Council, said on January 12 that Biden has promised to achieve the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, this commitment has not changed, and the focus is on strengthening extended deterrence.

Some Korean scholars have put forward different views on the position of the United States. Jung Sang-chang, a senior analyst at South Korea's Sejong Institute, told US media, "If South Korea has nuclear weapons, the United States does not need to consider whether it should use its own nuclear weapons to defend its allies, and the alliance will never be tested." The United States will actually become safer. "However, this view is not mainstream.

In terms of the possibility of "autonomous nuclear possession", in the 70s, then South Korean President Park Chung-hee launched a secret nuclear weapons development program, but was forced by the United States to abandon it. Today, South Korea still struggles to make up its own mind. Moreover, from a technical point of view, "autonomous nuclear possession" is also impractical.

Lee pointed out that although South Korea has its own relatively complete civilian nuclear energy technology, nuclear weapons require a lot of infrastructure, and even if Yoon Seok-yue is determined to develop it immediately, it will not be completed during his tenure. For the Yoon Seok-yue administration, strengthening the practical capability of nuclear sharing is a more realistic means, and the United States is willing. But as North Korea's nuclear capabilities develop, the potential cost of providing a nuclear umbrella for South Korea rises, so the final decision remains in U.S. hands.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula lacks international coordination

At the beginning of 2023, the Korean Peninsula is not calm, and the South Korean Defense Ministry claimed on January 5 that North Korean drones broke into the no-fly zone of the presidential palace last week, and South Korea sent fighters to intercept it, but failed to hit the target. Yoon threatened to consider suspending the validity of the 919 Military Agreement between the two Koreas if he was provoked again. The last safety valve to prevent sporadic conflicts from turning into wars is also beginning to be in jeopardy.

Yin Xiyue gave instructions to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense who reported on the work on the 11th, "Relying on the goodwill of the other side is not sustainable and is a fake peace." Maintain a strong posture of preparedness and ensure a strong right of self-defence in the face of provocations that threaten freedom and peace. "This foreshadows South Korea's tough North Korea policy."

According to Korean media reports, when facing officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense, Yoon Seok-yue strongly criticized the tone of the Moon Jae-in government's policy towards North Korea, saying that he should completely get rid of the so-called end-of-war declaration and hoped that the whole army could change its thinking and systematically carry out effective war preparation exercises. According to the Asahi Shimbun, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sub announced at a press conference on January 11 that the South Korean and US militaries are scheduled to hold a wargaming exercise against the North Korean nuclear threat in February this year and will hold it again in May.

As for the North Koreans, the building of nuclear forces is progressing as planned. At the end of last year, North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, said that in response to hostile forces such as the United States and South Korea, he would develop new intercontinental ballistic missile systems and increase the number of nuclear warheads geometrically.

"This year, there is a high probability that there will be high tensions on the Korean Peninsula again, and it may even be a firefight." Wang Junsheng pointed out that on the one hand, the situation of "strong against strong" between the DPRK and the United States has been formed; on the other hand, the DPRK is speeding up the research and development of missiles and strategic weapons, and the Yoon Seok-yue government has not created an atmosphere of dialogue with the DPRK. Moreover, there is no effective cooperation between major countries, and there is a lack of international coordination on the North Korean nuclear issue.

Looking back, in late 2017 and early 2018, when North Korea and the United States deterred each other, the Moon Jae-in administration played a role in mediating conflicts and promoting dialogue. The Han Minh Ilbo said that the current crisis on the peninsula is different from the past, and it can be seen from the fact that there is no suitable "arbiter of contradictions" that other major powers have formed different camps. There have been many wars in the past, but many times the end of the crisis can be seen, but the current crisis facing the peninsula has no way of knowing its final outcome.