Why does Qatar, a "small projectile country", mediate the Middle East?

A fan waves a Qatari flag outside the Gulf Stadium on November 20. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Pan Yulong/Photo)

In the Middle East, Qatar, surrounded by regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, seems destined to play a "dragon set" role.

However, when Qatar beat the drums of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, it was discovered that this country that once relied on pearl diving as its pillar industry has developed into an important force in the Middle East that cannot be ignored by relying on the huge amount of energy buried in the ground and "diplomatic nation-building".

"Hosting the World Cup is only a vehicle for Qatar to enhance the country's image and play a diplomatic function." According to Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, "Qatar is taking this as an opportunity to make multi-party efforts, which is actually safeguarding its own interests and realizing the demand of 'small country big diplomacy'." ”

Five years ago, Qatar and its only neighbor, Saudi Arabia, had a bad relationship and fell into a "crisis of severing diplomatic relations" with many countries. Then, relying on its own advantages, external assistance and mutual compromise to resolve the crisis, it also played a unique role in international affairs such as the Afghan issue.

In the meantime, people can't help but wonder: How did this seemingly inconspicuous Middle East "small projectile country" successfully rise with the help of the power of major powers? And how do you continue to mediate between countries in the Middle East?

"Small Country" Big Stage

Before this World Cup, most people were unfamiliar with Qatar. Between the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf, Qatar is like a flat boat docked on the sea, rich and mysterious, and it falters in the turbulent Middle East - Qatar has a land area of just over 10,000 square kilometers and a population of only 2.93 million, maintaining close relations with the United States all year round.

On November 22, 2022, the fifth round of the Strategic Dialogue between Qatar and the United States was held in Doha, Qatar, co-chaired by Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed Mohammed Mohammed and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The two sides discussed 12 major topics such as natural gas energy and exchanged views on regional hot issues.

As winter begins in the northern hemisphere, Qatar is now the world's largest supplier of liquefied natural gas after Russia and Iran.

It is widely believed that the United States has always focused on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but the two Gulf countries have made the United States feel very un"powerful" in increasing oil production. Against this backdrop, Qatar's strategic importance to the United States is on the rise.

Zou Zhiqiang told Southern Weekend that on the one hand, in order to maintain regional and global hegemony, the United States needs to control the energy layout of the Gulf region. And Qatar is located in the center of the Gulf region, and its proximity is also conducive to the United States balancing the ambitions of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Middle Eastern allies.

In the 90s, with the outbreak of the Gulf War, Qatar established a close alliance with the United States, and the two sides also carried out military cooperation.

Zou Zhiqiang believes that from Qatar's own perspective, it also wants to rely on the "big tree" and use more external forces to maintain its independence. "Strategic talks with the United States can be accompanied by deterrence of potential adversaries and enemies."

In fact, Qatar has always been close to the United States.

"Qatar has always played the role of 'mediator' diplomatically." Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Institute at Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese, told Southern Weekend that Qatar has played this role and role in many regional and international conflicts.

After the outbreak of the Afghan war in 2001, Qatar took in a group of high-ranking Taliban exiles. In 2013, the Taliban's only overseas office was inaugurated in the Qatari capital.

In 2003, the United States announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia after refusing to allow U.S. forces to continue using Prince Sudan Air Base in its territory. The expanded Udeid base in Qatar became the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East.

In 2017, Qatar became home to the regional headquarters of U.S. Central Command. On January 8, 2020, the U.S. digital news website reported that U.S. Central Command said it had 60,000 to 70,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East, including more than 13,000 U.S. troops stationed in Qatar.

"Although Qatar is very rich, its military power is very weak." Ding Long believes that Qatar must rely on external protection to maintain its own defense security.

On the afternoon of March 10, 2022, US President Joe Biden issued a statement officially confirming Qatar as a "major non-NATO ally" of the United States, making Qatar the third country in the Gulf region to obtain the status of a "major non-NATO ally" after Kuwait and Bahrain.

This means that Qatar can receive military and financial support from the United States only to its NATO allies, and purchase US-made weapons and military equipment.

The relationship between the United States and the United States and the United States seems to be getting closer and closer.

But in Zou Zhiqiang's view, there is still a limit to the warming of the relationship between the two sides. The United States needs Qatar as an important third party to play a role, but it cannot completely abandon Saudi Arabia. The United States may use the delicate relationship between Qatar and Saudi Arabia to balance the two sides. "Or act as a balancer to reconcile the two against Iran."

Break off diplomatic relations

In fact, in addition to choosing a foreign statehood policy backed by the "big tree" of the United States, Qatar has also carried out resource cooperation with Iran, and is even the only Arabian Peninsula country with formal diplomatic relations with Israel, expanding its influence in the Middle East.

But in the early years, such a move made Saudi Arabia and other countries very unhappy.

The BBC reported on June 13, 2017 that Saudi Arabia announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar on the grounds that Qatar funds terrorist organizations, uses Al Jazeera to interfere in other countries' internal affairs, and has good relations with Iran, in violation of the Riyadh Supplementary Agreement signed by the two sides in 2014.

This decision soon triggered a "domino effect" within the Arab world, and the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Bahrain, Comoros and other countries subsequently announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar or downgraded diplomatic relations.

In addition to this, Saudi Arabia has unveiled a plan to dig a canal along the Qatar peninsula's border with Saudi Arabia. It is widely believed that Saudi Arabia is nominally digging canals, but in fact severing the geographical connection between Qatar and the Arabian Peninsula.

"There were many reasons that Saudi Arabia put forward back then, but they were actually only superficial." Ding Long said that the core factor is that Qatar has very good relations with Iran and Turkey, which is contrary to the overall interests of the Gulf countries.

In addition, Qatar is very active in the Middle East, and the limelight may have overshadowed Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Zou Zhiqiang believes that Qatar wants relatively independent foreign policy and diplomatic room for maneuver, rather than keeping up with the Saudi "ship". But Saudi Arabia, as the largest country in the Middle East, naturally hopes that neighboring Qatar will follow suit.

In the same year, Reuters reported that the media of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia began a 24-hour uninterrupted attack on Qatar, and at the same time hackers hacked into the official website of the Qatari government, announcing that Qatar broke off diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. For a time, Qatari planes and ships could only enter and exit through the territorial waters and airspace of Iran and Iraq.

Ding Long told Southern Weekend that whether it is the foundation or faith, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are actually brothers of the same origin. "This kind of disagreement is like a conflict within the family, no matter how much trouble you make, you still break your bones and connect your tendons."

Sure enough, after several years of fighting, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic caught Qatar and Saudi Arabia by surprise. Reuters reported on March 17, 2020 that the capital of both sides has been greatly reduced by the consumption of low oil prices. Against this backdrop, Qatar and Saudi Arabia began to ease relations.

At the end of 2019, Qatar hosted the Gulf Cup football tournament, and Saudi Arabia sent a team to participate, taking the first step of "breaking the ice" in bilateral relations. Subsequently, with the mediation of Oman and the United States, it was not until January 2021, at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit, that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt resumed diplomatic relations with Qatar and signed the Euler Declaration, officially restoring full diplomatic relations.

"After several years of confrontation, both sides failed to achieve their goals and caused great losses." Zou Zhiqiang believes that after all, Qatar is a small country, and its only land neighbors are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and it is impossible to completely break away from the identity of the Gulf countries. At the same time, it is also a monarchy, and it does not want to continue to be consumed internally, resulting in a defeat for both.

On the evening of November 22, 2022, Saudi Arabia defeated Argentina in upset, and Qatar's head of state Tamim waved the Saudi flag in celebration after the game, which attracted a lot of attention. Many media reported that diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have gradually warmed up after a storm of severing diplomatic relations a few years ago.

However, in Zou Zhiqiang's view, although in the short term, the conflict between Qatar and Saudi Arabia will not easily break out, but the hidden problem still exists for a long time. Disputes between the two countries over oil resources, regime legitimacy, and influence in the Arab world remain unresolved. "Conflicts in the Middle East are cyclical, depending on where the insecurity comes from, and there are different changes at different times."

Good offices in the Middle East

It is worth noting that as a small Middle Eastern country with a small population, small population and many deserts, Qatar is not suitable for hosting large-scale international events. But Qatar has been particularly active in this regard over the years, with its capital, Doha, which hosted the Asian Games in 2006 and will host the Games again in 2030, and announced plans to host the 2032 Olympics.

Why is Qatar so obsessed with hosting major international sporting events?

"Qatar sees the World Cup as an opportunity to further improve its foreign relations." Ding Long said that Qatar's core diplomatic circle is the Gulf region, and further improving relations with other GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia, is a key issue in Qatar's diplomacy at present.

Ahead of the opening ceremony of the World Cup, Qatar announced a major and groundbreaking resolution to allow fans in Israel and the Palestinian territories to fly directly to Doha, including residents of the occupied West Bank and the blockaded Gaza Strip. As a "giveback", Israel announced the establishment of temporary consular services for citizens participating in the competition, guaranteeing the travel of Israeli citizens to Doha.

Many experts and scholars interviewed told Southern Weekend that Qatar has sent a political signal that it is willing to ease its relations with Israel, and this delicate interaction between the two sides has laid an important foundation for the development of further relations between the two countries.

It is true that Qatar, with its constitutional monarchy, is more politically stable than other Middle Eastern countries, and its relatively neutral position in diplomacy also makes it a source of success.

"For Qatar, it has no other choice." Ding Long told Southern Weekend that Qatar can only adopt a diversified and balanced diplomatic strategy. Maintain good relations with all the big countries and regional powers, so that it can get its own living space.

In addition, the relationship between Qatar and Turkey is also remarkable.

Since Qatar's severance of diplomatic relations in 2017, Turkey has become a staunch ally of Qatar, providing strong economic and military support. Even a month before the World Cup, Turkey sent a joint task force to Qatar to provide security for the World Cup event.

"Qatar is unlikely to give up this close relationship with Turkey." Zou Zhiqiang told Southern Weekend that in fact, the two countries have been considered quasi-allies by the outside world, and if something happens to Qatar, Turkey will come out for it, and Qatar has also provided Turkey with a lot of economic support. "From a bilateral point of view, they are now supporting each other."

For now, apparent tensions in the Middle East have eased, but Qatar is still trying to balance its relations with countries to guard against future dangers for the country. Ding Long believes that Qatar is "looking east" and "needs to maintain diversified cooperation".

However, compared with the support of Arab countries, Western countries seem to be a little "faceless" this time. At the opening ceremony, Western countries were collectively absent, why is this?

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many European countries put pressure on Qatar on the energy issue, but the latter did not give much positive response. It is widely believed that Western countries moderately "knocked" Qatar by absenting from the opening ceremony.

Ding Long said that in the face of Western accusations about the problem, Qatar showed a very tough attitude and gave a firm counterattack. "It shows that Qatar is diplomatically, its autonomy is rising."

It is worth noting that although Qatar has resumed diplomatic relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other countries, the programs of Qatar Al Jazeera, which has been labeled as "bold and sharp", are still unavailable in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and other countries, which shows that many Arab countries are still taboo and wary of Qatar.

"In fact, the main essential problems between Qatar and the Gulf countries have not been resolved." Ding Long believes that there are still fundamental contradictions in the seemingly relaxed relationship, and the future trend remains to be seen.

"Qatar is currently coexisting with its neighbors and running its own 'territory', but these are in a process of phased change." Zou Zhiqiang said that future changes in the international pattern, the strategic contraction of the United States and other factors will affect the changes in the relationship between countries in the Middle East.

But in any case, as the first host of the World Cup in the Middle East, Qatar has earned enough "face" and left an iconic mark on history.

Southern Weekend reporter Wang Weilin