On September 19, Washington, the capital of the United States, people with the sequelae of the "long new crown" protested outside the White House against Biden's statement that "the epidemic in the United States is over". Photo courtesy of Visual China
According to CNN, Volynsky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), recently tested positive for the new coronavirus and is currently self-isolating.
One of the reasons why the news of Volynsky's coronavirus infection has attracted attention is that she received a booster shot of the new crown vaccine just last month. More and more evidence suggests that with the emergence and spread of a large number of Omicron variants in many countries, some strains have broken through the immune barrier of existing vaccines, and the immune capacity provided by vaccines has gradually declined, the northern hemisphere will see a new wave of new crown epidemic peak, together with influenza, bronchitis and other diseases common in autumn and winter, constitute a "mixed pandemic".
A new wave of winter epidemic peaks is coming
Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina in the United States, believes that the scale of infection in this autumn and winter will be similar to that caused by the Omicron variant BA.5, but unlike it, the number of hospital admissions in this round of the epidemic is more difficult to predict. Although vaccines and previous infections have accumulated some immunity in the population, a surge in the number of infected people can still lead to a rise in hospital admissions and deaths. In addition, winter flu may also make a comeback this year, triggering a "double flu" in the northern hemisphere, bringing more serious challenges to national health systems.
There are many factors contributing to this trend. Nature pointed out that social activity in many countries has returned to pre-pandemic levels, respiratory viruses have multiplied more actively during the cold season, and people have been gathering indoors for a long time, further promoting the spread of the virus. There is also an even more important reason - a wave of Omicron variants is coming.
Since the beginning of the year, Omicron has evolved a large number of "descendants". Although the Omicron subvariants that caused previous rounds of the epidemic – BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 – have tended to fade, their offspring have begun to circulate in the population. Researchers are closely tracking the global development of these variants.
In the United States, Omicron's subvariant, BA.5, still dominates, with this strain responsible for approximately 68% of new infections. But the new variants BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BF.7 are menacing and may soon replace BA.5. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the number of infections caused by these new strains has doubled every 6 to 7 days in recent weeks — a fairly rapid increase in the spread of the new strain compared to BA.5. The variant is expected to replace BA.5 as the dominant strain by mid-November.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) predicts that BQ.1 and its offshoot could lead to a surge in infections in Europe in the coming months. Currently, European countries with the highest rates of infection include France, Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and Italy. ECDC Director Andrea Amon urged countries to remain vigilant about the emergence and spread of BQ.1 and continue to monitor COVID data, including hospital admissions, severe cases, deaths and other indicators.
In France, the infection curve driven by the BA.5 strain has again steepened since the start of the new semester in September, causing the eighth round of the pandemic in the country, with 576 infections per 100,000 people. Although the eighth outbreak in France has now eased, the new strain BQ.1.1 has begun to spread rapidly again. WHO has warned that the BQ.1.1 variant could lead to a new wave of mass infections in France, including among people who have been vaccinated or infected with the virus.
In addition, new variants are growing rapidly in many countries. For weeks, the UK Infected Population Survey reported that infection data and hospital admissions continued to rise. In India, BA.2.75 caused a wave of infections a few months ago, and now its variant has overtaken other strains, the most common of which is BA.2.75.2. In Singapore and parts of Asia, the recombinant XBB variant is spreading rapidly, triggering a new wave of outbreaks. In addition, countries such as Denmark and Australia have also seen BA.2.3.20.
The new coronavirus has entered a new stage of highly adapted to humans
"One or more of these variants will lead to new waves of infections." Tom Winseliers, an evolutionary biologist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, told Nature that because these strains behave similarly, it doesn't matter which strain will become the dominant strain.
Some health experts believe that the evolution of the new coronavirus has entered a whole new phase, and people will see several variants spread at the same time. "It is very likely that several variants will enter the winter at the same time, working together to drive a new wave of virus transmission."
Nathan Gruber, associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health in the United States, pointed out that in convergent evolution, several different variants can acquire similar transmissibility, and the pandemic is no longer dominated by a single variant. "Today, the new coronavirus has adapted to humans, and most of the variants that are circulating are highly adaptable."
Among these dizzying variants, the most noteworthy are BQ1, BQ1.1 and XBB. Bloomberg pointed out that these strains have the ability to evade existing treatments, including two monoclonal antibody drugs that have only recently been developed - AstraZeneca's infection prevention drug "Enshide", and Lilly's antibody drug "Bebtelovimab" to treat infection. For people with compromised immune systems or adverse reactions to other drug treatments, these two drugs are safer and more effective than the new crown vaccine.
The journal Nature pointed out that the bivalent vaccine booster shot can provide some immune barrier against emerging variants of the virus, but this may not last long. Some bivalent vaccines are based on subvariants of existing Omicron, for example, the UK-approved vaccine is based on BA.1 and the US-approved vaccine is based on BA.5, and does not identify other variants well. Therefore, a second booster dose may be required to promote the production of high levels of specific neutralizing antibodies.
Is there something to do about the new strain
In order to improve the level of herd immunity, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidelines on October 12, recommending children over 5 years old to receive a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine and children over 6 years old to receive a booster dose of the Moderna vaccine, hoping to prevent the infection of the new crown variant. However, American parents are not very willing to give their children booster shots. According to the American Academy of Pediatrics, since the first batch of new crown vaccines for children aged 5-11 years old was approved, most American parents have taken a wait-and-see attitude for nearly a year. As of October 5, less than one-third of the 9 million children ages 5-11 in the United States had completed primary vaccination. Only 58 percent of U.S. adolescents in the 12-17 age group have completed their primary vaccination.
In fact, the percentage of U.S. adults getting booster shots is also not high. According to CNN, since the U.S. government provided a bivalent vaccine booster shot in early September, only 19.35 million people have been vaccinated, less than half of the eligible people. CNN reported that the insufficient vaccination rate of the bivalent vaccine booster shot, combined with the immune evasion of the new variant and the weakening of population immunity, will almost certainly lead to a significant increase in infections and hospitalizations in the coming weeks. Mark Zeller, a scientist at the Scripps Research Institute who monitors variants, believes that the next wave could be much larger than the one caused by BA.5.
In addition to booster shots, another way to deal with new strains is to race against the virus and develop new vaccines and drugs against them. For pharmaceutical companies, though, it's likely to be a loss-making deal. Ashish Jeha, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, told CNN that developing and producing new drugs requires millions of dollars upfront, and because the virus is evolving so quickly, new vaccines and drugs may only last a few months. "It's a bad business model [for pharmaceutical companies]." Jeha said.
The U.S. federal government has been pushing for the development of monoclonal antibodies in the past and promised to "pay" for new therapies after they are launched, but Jeha said that now the federal government will not do so because the budget is not enough and Congress refuses to provide more funding for the response to the new crown epidemic. As a result, the U.S. government began considering commercializing some of its response to the pandemic to reduce the cost of purchasing vaccines and therapies and eventually passing them on to consumers and insurers. However, Jeha noted that such an approach must take into account "local needs and the reality of the virus (development)". The reality, he argues, is that the U.S. government must continue to support the development of new treatments.
Beijing, 26 Oct (Jiefangjun Bao) --
Hu Wenli, reporter of China Youth Daily and China Youth Net
Source: China Youth Daily