On September 26, local time, the Italian Ministry of the Interior announced the results of the parliamentary elections counting more than 90% of the votes, and the president of the Italian fraternal party, Georgia Melloni, is expected to become the first female prime minister in the history of the country. The party received 26 per cent of the vote, while the Northern Alliance Party, which is also in the right-wing coalition, received 8.9 per cent of the vote. Written before the vote, this article analyzes the different effects of Meloni's big victory or small victory based on the positions of the United States and the European Union. The Northern Alliance Party, on the other hand, is considered to be the most crucial pawn that could upset the situation. The translation is slightly abridged and the views are for informational purposes only.
[Text/Eletra Addisino, Eric Jones Translation/Observer Network Guo Han]
On September 25, Italy will vote for a new government. The outcome of the parliamentary elections will have a huge impact on the entire country, the EU and NATO. If the polls predict correctly, the right-wing coalition will win by an absolute margin. Georgia Meloni, leader of the far-right Italian Brotherhood (BIP), will become prime minister. This is Italy's first prime minister from far-right parties since Benito Mussolini. Meloni denies any connection to fascism, but her party retains many of the symbols and values of the fascist era. Needless to say, the current trend has left the market in a cold sweat with international observers.
Despite international concerns about Meloni's election, a strong Meloni government is better than a weak Meloni government. She is already fading the populist image she had previously fashioned in front of the masses and presenting herself as a traditional conservative. Her policy preferences are broadly in line with the direction expected by the EU and NATO. Therefore, the greatest threat to Italy's stability and its position in the West does not come from Meloni himself. Instead, it came from her governing coalition, especially the pro-Russian Lega Party, and its subversive leader, Matteo Salvini.
Salvini, President of the Italian Northern Alliance for Independence of Pardania (Northern Alliance), former Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior
In the long run, Méloni may hurt Italian democracy. But in the short to medium term, a strong Meloni government will be a more stable, not a destructive force. Conversely, a weak Meloni government might compromise with Salvini and Italy's allies would be uncomfortable. If Méloni does not act properly, it may even lead to the collapse of the Italian government in the face of crisis.
The return of the right wing
After the end of the Cold War, the isolation of the far right in Italy came to an end. The collapse of both the Italian Communist Party and the Christian Democratic Party provided a power vacuum for the rise of emerging populism. For example, the Northern Alliance Party tried to separate northern Italy and "establish an independent state". Billionaire and media mogul Berlusconi was elected prime minister and promised to replace professional politicians with business elites. Against this backdrop, right-wing politicians returned from "exile" and began to join the government. After the Fascist Socialist Party of Italy, which was renamed the National Alliance, its members served in the three governments of Berlusconi (1994, 2001-2006, 2008-2011). The party carefully distanced itself from fascist traditions, and its leader, Gianfranco Feeney, visited Israel's Holocaust Memorial in 2003.
Anti-elite
It is counterintuitive that the return of right-wing parties has not torn apart Italian politics. On the contrary, in the 1990s, voters in Italy mostly tended to take the middle line. Berlusconi also transformed from a populist fanatic into a center-right mainstream politician. This is due to his long-standing rivalry with center-left leader, Romano Prodi. For more than 10 years, the prime minister has changed hands repeatedly between the two. The National League Party also began to move closer to the center line and gradually lost its political identity, getting closer and closer to Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The two parties eventually merged to form the center-right Liberal People's Party.
However, this trend of political convergence ended in 2011. That year, the eurozone crisis buried Berlusconi's government. The inability of the pro-establishment parties to frustrate voters is to be disillusioned. Emerging small anti-system parties emerged as the biggest winners. Meloni was the youngest cabinet member of Berlusconi's government at the time and also participated in denunciations of the traditional political elite. Believing that the National Alliance Party had betrayed its core values, she founded the Italian Brotherhood Party in 2012.
From 2008 to 2011, Meloni served as Minister of Youth in Berlusconi's government
At first, Meloni's right-wing political influence was extremely limited. In the 10 years since 2010, Italy's fraternal parties have typically won only 2 to 4 percent of the vote in national and European parliament elections. The anti-establishment, anti-EU five-star movement party is the "top stream", winning 25% of the vote in the 2013 general election and more than 32% in 2018. Salvini's right-wing, anti-EU, nationalist Northern Alliance party is also beginning to gain support from voters across Italy. The party won 17 percent of the vote in the 2018 general election and another 34 percent in the European Parliament elections a year later.
In June 2018, the Five Star Movement and the Northern Alliance Party came to power in coalition. It was also the beginning of the transition of the two parties from "outsiders" to traditional political elites. They compromised on the selection of finance ministers, made concessions to the EU over government budgets, and failed to deliver on their campaign promises to reform welfare and job markets. In 2019, the Five Star Movement formed a new coalition government with the center-left Democratic Party, and the transformation continued to advance and reached its peak in 2021 – the Five Star Movement and the Northern Alliance Party joined Prime Minister Mario Draghi's National Solidarity Alliance. Berlusconi's Force Italia party and center-left Democratic Party are among them. However, Italy's fraternal party did not join any of the ruling coalitions and became the dominant opposition party.
Meloni's decision gave her a unique advantage over the Five Star Movement and the Northern League. Draghi's governing coalition represented all the ideas that the Five Star Movement and the Northern Alliance Party had originally opposed. As a technocrat, Draghi was president of the European Central Bank until he was elected prime minister in 2021. In his presidency, he took a centrist and pro-EU route. By reforming Italy's judiciary, civil service and other institutions in exchange for EU assistance, Italy will be able to recover from the pandemic.
In terms of governing style, Draghi did not allow his men to have any objections. He demanded that the ruling coalition assume collective responsibility based on consensus. As a result, every step forward in the difficult institutional reform, the Five Star Movement and the Northern Alliance Party had to bear the blame. Meloni's Italian fraternity had plenty of ammunition to attack their hypocrisy.
As a result, during Draghi's tenure, polls by the Five Star Movement and the Northern Alliance Party continued to fall, and their support for an establishment-led government was seen by voters as the ultimate betrayal of populist principles. At the end of July, faced with seemingly irreversible defeats, both parties saw an opportunity to "jump out of the car." When the Five Star Movement refused to support a social assistance proposal, the Northern Alliance and Force Italia blamed the former for not being trustworthy and refusing to govern jointly. Draghi, who had always valued the unity and loyalty of the ruling coalition, had no choice but to announce the dissolution of the alliance. This further increases Meloni's popularity. Voters are also happy to see a new face to lead the government.
Draghi's tenure as prime minister (February 2021 – July 2022) provided an opportunity for the rapid rise of Méloni and Italy's brotherhood
Mainstream packaging
As Méloni solidifies her leadership among anti-establishment voters, she has every reason to package herself as a reliable prime minister and win the trust of the international community. Meloni knows that whether she can stay in power for a long time depends on whether the international market recognizes her leadership. So she is relentlessly moving closer to the mainstream. Recently, Meloni reassured allies that he would be committed to continuing to support Ukraine after being elected. She also changed her previous statement, saying that she would unswervingly support Italy's stay in the eurozone. In a joint campaign platform with Salvini and Berlusconi, Meloni breathed a sigh of relief to the centrists: the platform mentioned "respecting Italy's commitment as a member of the Transatlantic Alliance (NATO)", "full support for European integration" and so on.
If Salvini wants to challenge Meloni's leadership, he can only win votes from anti-establishment voters. His strategy is to continue to go to extremes. The Northern Alliance party proposed replacing the current progressive tax on personal income with a flat tax, and also proposed reforming the welfare system so that every Italian could enjoy a full pension after 41 years of work. It is estimated that these two propositions alone will bring in 57 billion euros (about 394.5 billion yuan) of additional expenditure per year, equivalent to 3.3% of Italy's GDP. Such a large-scale borrowing may provoke the wrath of Brussels on the issue of the budget. In 2018, Salvini directed a similar play. Italy is already heavily indebted and faces gloomy demographic and economic growth prospects. Such a claim is nothing short of worsening, and I am afraid that it will once again lead to the loss of confidence in Italy. To make matters worse, the ECB has made it clear that it will not bail out members that do not abide by Brussels' fiscal discipline. If Italy's ability to repay debt causes market panic, the euro's long-term credibility will also be questioned, as happened in 2011-2012. From a geopolitical point of view, Salvini is also "unreliable". Just a few weeks ago, he publicly called on the European Union to reconsider sanctions against Russia, though he quickly withdrew his stance.
Salvini used the high prices and interest rates faced by Italians to justify his tax cuts, pension reform, increased public spending and the easing of EU sanctions on Russia. He declared himself "a man representing the masses". If Meloni is to avoid a "backstab" from Salvini, she must convince the Italians that high energy bills are a price that must be accepted for Europe's long-term security; In the face of the current economic difficulties, large-scale fiscal shifts are irresponsible solutions. These two claims are not easy to say. Recent polls showed that 51 percent of Italian voters want to end sanctions against Russia. As winter approaches, that number is likely to increase.
According to a poll by the news website Politico, 51% of Italians support the lifting of sanctions against Russia and 44% oppose after soaring natural gas and prices
Meloni's dilemma was finding ways to persuade or appease Salvini while maintaining her credibility with EU partners and international investors. If he compromises with Salvini on these issues, Méloni could undermine the West's "united front" on Ukraine or spark a bickering within the EU over the budget — in the worst case, both. And if Meloni refuses to budge, then Salvini will become a "nail in the coffin" in her coalition government, and how long will Meloni be able to withstand the pressure and put a question mark.
Right-wing infighting
Salvini wanted to put pressure on Meloni if he could take steady control of the Northern Coalition Party. However, there are also divisions within his party, with the radical side wanting to continue to act as a façade for the anti-establishment faction, while the moderates want to move closer to the center and see Salvini as a missed opportunity to help Draghi's government fall. There are indications that some business heavyweights have praised Meloni's modest stance. The annual Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio is the most important gathering of renowned Italian industrialists, financial figures and various business communities. During this time, Meloni promised to continue Draghi's macro goals, which won her applause. Salvini could not afford to lose critical support from the business community.
If the Northern Alliance party gets less than 10% of the vote, it will be a fiasco for Salvini (the latest vote count shows that the Northern Alliance party received 8.9% of the vote). He will have to consider consolidating his position in the party without the kung fu to play against Meloni. Meloni has room to adjust policy from interference from her unreliable allies, thereby boosting the credibility of the Italian government in Europe, NATO and bond markets.
The rest of the results are less optimistic. If Méloni fails to win a big victory, a fragile right-wing ruling coalition may not survive the end of a five-year term in parliament and will collapse prematurely. If so, Italy will be re-elected in a few months, when the inflation and energy crises are worsening across the board. The worse result was that Méloni received too low a vote to form a governing coalition. After all, there are also serious divisions within the center-left parties, and Italy's fraternal parties are unable to work with the Democratic Party. This could lead to Italy facing a national crisis in which even the government could not be assembled and leaderless.
If Méloni is elected strongly, it will at least provide stability and allow her to assume the responsibility of governing Italy. As the populist stance has continued to soften over the past few months, Méloni has proven that she understands the importance of the premiership. In the long run, Italians must judge Méloni's far-right claims and plans to change the democratic system. But in the short term, a strong rather than weak Meroni government is clearly more welcome for Italy, the European Union, the United States and Ukraine.
[This article was originally published on the website of Foreign Affairs on September 21]
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