【Reporter Connection】
At the end of August, ethiopian federal government forces and local security forces, among others, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (PFLP) forces again exchanged fierce fire in the border areas of Tigray, Amhara and Afar. This is the second large-scale armed conflict between the two sides since the humanitarian ceasefire and truce in March this year.
Over the past two weeks or so, the Federal Army of Ethiopia and eritrean forces have also launched attacks against PFLP forces in the northern and western regions of Tigray Region. The rekindling of the fighting in northern Ethiopia has not only cast a shadow over the peace process in Ethiopia, but also worsened the business environment and the economic situation in Ethiopia, which has just improved.
Conflict in the north has resumed
According to the Ethiopian News Agency and other media reports, on August 24, the Thien Pfalski forces advanced from the southern part of Tigray State to the territory of Afar And al-Ahla State, occupied some small towns near the border between the two states, and continued to approach the town of Walledia in Amhara State south along the highway. Federal forces, on the other hand, carried out airstrikes on the town of Cobo and the FLN armed camps and military installations in Merclay, the capital of Tigre State. As in November 2020, when the conflict between the two sides broke out, both the Ethiopian federal government and the FLN issued statements at the first time, claiming that the war was provoked by the other side.
The Government of Ethiopia claimed that the actions of THRI violated the ceasefire agreement and accused THIM of ignoring all peace proposals proposed by the Government of Ethiopia and of continuing its provocative acts by its armed groups, launching attacks on 5 a.m. on 24 August in the direction of Bissobel, Zobel and Tkulesh on the Eastern Front. The PFLP militant military command accused the Ethiopian government of violating the ceasefire agreement, and the leader of the DZI D'IHRI, Debreción Gebre Michael, issued a statement saying that "the peace process is being set to fail" and accusing the Ethiopian government of trying to block the investigation of war crimes, suspend critical services and blockade the area. FLN also accused federal forces of intensifying their military presence in the southern border area of Tigray state in recent times with the intention of launching an "all-out war".
Residents around the town of Kobo said they had heard heavy weapons attacks since the early morning of the 24th, but they did not know who launched the attack first. After the two sides resumed the war, reporters saw dozens of buses transporting soldiers to the front line in the southern suburbs of the capital Addis Ababa for several days in a row. In the past two days, social media sources have shown that the Ethiopian government has used Ethiopian Airlines civil aircraft several times in the past week to transport soldiers and weapons. According to reports, the Ethiopian government previously claimed to shoot down a plane transporting weapons from Sudan to THRI, and the Ethiopian government recently said that THRI launched an attack on federal government troops in the Sitigre area from Sudan, but the relevant reports were denied by TI AND the Sudanese government.
According to the latest local media reports, just as the THRI forces were advancing from the south, southeast, southwest and west of Tigray to Amhara and Afar Oblast, the Federal Army of Ethiopia was launching a fierce attack in the Sitagre region and the northern part of Tigre State in conjunction with the Eritrean army, resulting in a disastrous defeat for the THYP forces on the Western Front. The Eritrean army shelled some of the major towns in the northern region of Tigray. After the resumption of war in the north, Desai, Combocha, Deboul and deBoul in Amhara State, as well as the historic city of Lalibela, have issued curfews and restricted the movement of people and vehicles. Known as the "Jerusalem of Africa", Lalibela is home to a UNESCO-registered stone-carved church.
Peace negotiations are overshadowed
The DZIN is the core political party of the former ruling coalition, the Epstein-Barry Epstein-General (EGF), which de facto controlled state power for 27 years, based in the northern state of Tigray. In December 2019, Prime Minister Abie from oromia region dissolved the Egree FNI, and the rest of the EGRE member parties except PFLP were merged with all the affiliated parties to form the Prosperity Party, and the PFLP strongly opposed the dissolution of the Egress. After a series of hostilities, large-scale armed conflict broke out on 4 November 2020 between FLNI and the Prosperity Party's ruling Ethiopian government. In May 2021, FLNI was designated a terrorist organization by the Ethiopian government. In November of the same year, the PFLP forces marched south along the highway, once approaching Addis Ababa for less than 200 kilometers, and many Western countries, including the United States and Europe, carried out evacuation operations. Later, due to the long front and fear of being cut off by the government forces and counter-encirclement, the THRI forces withdrew the main force to the border areas of Tigray State and Amhara State and Afar State. In March, the Ethiopian government unilaterally proposed a humanitarian truce to allow humanitarian aid to enter the war-torn Tigray region, with THRA acquiescing to the armistice agreement. Since then, the two sides have entered a truce of more than 5 months, but neither side has forgotten to recruit, renew weapons and equipment and replenish ammunition.
Since June this year, the Ethiopian government and the THRA have shown great interest in peace talks, and the Ethiopian government has not only opened special channels for humanitarian assistance provided by the United Nations, the United States and Europe to conflict areas such as Tigray, but also increased the transportation and distribution of fuel and cash to the Tigray area, and a large number of humanitarian relief materials have arrived in Tigray and other places. The Ethiopian Government has also signed a third-party implementation agreement with the United Nations Office for Project Services to implement the World Bank-funded Reconstruction Project in the Tigray Region. In addition, on 12 July, the Ethiopian government appointed a high-level peace committee to lead peace talks with THRA, which also expressed its willingness to engage in peace talks with the government to achieve permanent peace. However, the Government of Ethiopia and FLNI have not compromised each other on the terms of the peace talks. The dispute between the two sides over the terms of the peace talks directly triggered a second round of armed conflict, which also cast a shadow on the peace process.
Some analysts have said that the Ethiopian government hopes to use force to force THRI to abandon the preconditions and carry out peace talks with the government, while the high-level hardliners of the TR insist on starting another war despite the persuasion of the United States and Europe, and their target is likely not Addis Ababa, but hopes to break through the blockade by force, obtain fuel, food, medicine and other materials, and open up a passage to Sudan, while forcing the government to agree to the terms of its peace talks.
The economy and people's livelihood are even worse
After the resumption of fighting in northern Ethiopia, UN Secretary-General António Guterres sent a telegram to Prime Minister Abi and PFLP Chairman Gebry Michael respectively and called on the two sides to immediately cease fire and create conditions for the resumption of effective political dialogue.
The Chairman of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki, "expressed deep concern" at reports of renewed military confrontation in Ethiopia and urged de-escalation of the situation. Faki strongly called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and urged the parties to resume talks in the search for a peaceful solution. Faki reiterated the AU's continued commitment to working with all parties to support a consensus political process that serves the interests of the country. He called on all parties to engage with the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa and former President Obasanjo of Nigeria.
Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa, because the domestic situation was relatively stable in the past, and its economy has maintained more than 9% growth for 10 consecutive years, making it one of the best performing countries in Africa. However, since the outbreak of the Tigray conflict in November 2020, the Ethiopian economy has been greatly weakened, the business environment has deteriorated sharply, and people's lives have been seriously affected.
Nearly 500,000 people were reportedly killed in the war, most of them from the PFLP side, and many were also killed in various regions of Afar and Amhara. More than 2 million people have been forced to flee their homes and become homeless, and millions have gone hungry. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi reported last year that the federal government invested more than 100 billion birr ($19 billion) in the war during the first round of the war alone. In general, under the combined impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the Tigray conflict, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the drought and other superimposed effects, Ethiopia's post-war economic growth has slowed down significantly, especially in The amhara, Afar and Tigre states have changed from economic contributors to recipients of assistance. According to a recent report by the Ethiopian Ministry of Education, more than $2.2 billion is needed to rebuild facilities such as school buildings. Due to the sudden increase in war and security risks, many factories were forced to shut down or close, exacerbating inflation and shortages in Ethiopia.
In the first half of this year, the country's inflation rate has been above 30%. On the streets of Addis Ababa, women, children and the elderly can be seen begging along the streets. A Chinese who has worked in Ethiopia for many years told reporters that due to the impact of the Tigray conflict, many refugees have fled from the north, resulting in a significant increase in begging and stealing in the streets of the capital in the past one or two years, and the people's lives have become more and more difficult.
In the past five months, due to the truce, the business environment in Ethiopia has improved, and some foreign investors have begun to return to Ethiopia. However, the resumption of war in the north is likely to reverse this momentum, and ethiopia's economy and livelihood will worsen.
(Addis Ababa, September 9, this newspaper's reporter in Addis Ababa, Wang Chuanjun)
Source: Guangming Daily