There is no shortage of hotly speculated stocks in China's capital market, and there are also many cases of "falling off the altar", and the piece of The Tablet, which is known as "Moutai in Medicine", should be counted as one of them.
From a hard-to-find drug to an adequate supply, the stock price of Tablets has also experienced a process from crazy rise to shrinkage, and the market value has fallen by more than 100 billion yuan compared with the peak period. However, from the perspective of specific performance, the fundamentals of Katazai have not deteriorated significantly. As of September 8, Katazai reported closing at 293.75 yuan / share, with a total market value of 177.2 billion yuan.
Why is Katazai revered as a "miracle drug"? Who is the driving force behind the hot katazai? From revelry to loneliness, what has Katazai experienced? Is the current katazai stock worth bottoming out?
1
Objectively speaking, the performance of Katazai in the first half of 2022 is remarkable.
In the first half of the year, the revenue of Katazai Zhen reached 4.423 billion yuan, an increase of 14.91% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1.314 billion yuan, an increase of 17.85% year-on-year; and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.317 billion yuan, an increase of 18.08% year-on-year.
From the perspective of business segments, Katazai mainly includes the pharmaceutical industry sector, cosmetics, daily chemical industry sector and food industry sector. In the first half of the year, the pharmaceutical industry was still the main source of revenue for tablets, achieving revenue of 3.988 billion yuan, accounting for more than 90% of revenue. Among them, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry achieved revenue of 2.115 billion yuan, an increase of 18.04% year-on-year; the pharmaceutical circulation industry achieved revenue of 1.873 billion yuan, an increase of 17.42% year-on-year.
The main products of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry are "tablets" drugs, including lozenges and capsules, which are two dosage forms, with the same composition and function.
"癀" in Minnan means "inflammation", and "tablet zai zhen" means one piece that can be withdrawn. Tablets of medicine is mainly made of bovine yolk, musk, panax notoginseng, snake bile and other materials, liver protection, anti-inflammatory for its two major effects. In Southeast Asia, "Tablets" are regarded as "immortal medicines", and many people call it "the antibiotic in Chinese medicine".
The gross profit margin of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Katazai is high, and although it decreased by 1.18 percentage points year-on-year in the first half of the year, it is still as high as 78.05%. However, the gross profit margin of the pharmaceutical circulation industry was only 11.53%, and it also fell by 0.26 percentage points, which also made the overall gross profit margin of its pharmaceutical industry only 46.8%.
In addition, although the gross profit margin of the cosmetics and daily chemical industries of Katazai is also in a state of decline, down 4.34 percentage points from the previous year, it is still 65.2%. Although the gross profit margin of its food industry increased by 4.72 percentage points over the previous year, it was only 11.51%.
On the whole, the gross profit margin of Katazai in the first half of 2022 was 47.68%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.08 percentage points, ending the upward trend of gross profit margin from 2019 to 2021 for 3 consecutive years.
The financial report of the double growth of revenue and net profit has not been recognized by investors in the secondary market, and after the release of the financial report, its stock price has not been alarmed and has not risen significantly. This is in stark contrast to the pomp and circumstance in which its stock price soared in 2020 and 2021.
According to the data of Oriental Wealth Network, from the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2021, the stock price of Katazai Zhen (closing price, the same below) rose from 84.39 yuan / share to 437.15 yuan / share, an increase of 418.01%. During the period, it reached the highest point of 491.88 yuan / share on July 21, 2021.
Photo / Oriental Fortune Network
According to the "Bullet View of Finance", many investors have made huge fortunes on the stock of Katazai.
In late June 2021, at the stage of the high stock price of Katazai, "Bullet Finance" saw in a wealth management group that a screenshot of the stock position issued by a pharmaceutical industry practitioner showed that he held 7,000 shares of Katazai stock at a cost price of 232.977 yuan, and as of late June, the floating profit was 1.4945 million yuan.
However, among the wealth-making stories of Katazai, the wealth story of Wang Fuji, the most praised investor in the market, is regarded as one of the most bullish retail investors in A-shares by virtue of his long-term investment in Katazai and high returns.
According to media reports, in the second quarter of 2009, Wang Fuji first appeared on the list of shareholders of Katazai, ranking the fourth largest shareholder of the company with a shareholding ratio of 1.97%, and at that time, its position building cost was only about 5 yuan.
In the 2010 mid-year report, Wang Fuji has become the second largest shareholder of Katazai, and the shareholding ratio has increased to 4.5%. By the first quarter of 2011, Wang Fuji's stock market value was 380 million yuan.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2022, Wang Fuji held 27.0375 million shares of Katazai shares, accounting for 4.48% of the total share capital of Katazai, with a stock market value of 8.577 billion yuan, and some media calculated according to the market value of the stock held at the end of the first quarter of 2011, at that time, Wang Fuji's investment in Katazai had a floating profit of 8.197 billion yuan. As of the end of June, Wang Fuji's shareholding has not changed, and he is still the second largest shareholder of Katazai.
According to the closing price of 293.75 yuan per share on September 8, the stock of Katazai held by Wang Fuji is worth nearly 8 billion yuan.
However, in 2022, the story of the rich and the rich is difficult to continue, and its stock price has entered a downward state, from 432.3 yuan / share on January 4 to 293.75 yuan / share on September 8, a drop of 32.%, with a total market value of 177.2 billion yuan, a decline of more than 119.5 billion yuan compared with the highest point in 2021, and many investors who entered at a high level were trapped in it.
According to Oriental Wealth Choice data, in 2019, 2020 and 2021, the revenue of Katazai was 5.722 billion yuan, 6.511 billion yuan and 8.022 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.06%, 13.78% and 23.2% respectively; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of listed companies was 1.374 billion yuan, 1.672 billion yuan and 2.431 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 20.25%, 21.62% and 45.46% year-on-year.
Compared with the same period last year, in the first half of 2021, the revenue of Katazai was 3.849 billion yuan, an increase of 18.56% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1.115 billion yuan, an increase of 28.96% year-on-year.
From this point of view, although the growth rate of the performance of the film has slowed down slightly, it is still in a state of growth overall, and the fundamentals have not shown signs of deterioration. But why is the capital market no longer pursuing the film?
2 The "miracle drug" relies on stir-frying
Behind the fact that the tablet is no longer sought after by investors, it is the cooling of the outside world's enthusiasm for the speculation of the "miracle drug" tablet.
According to the introduction of Katazai, Katazai is derived from the last years of the Ming Dynasty, has a history of nearly 500 years of inheritance, is a national-level protected variety of traditional Chinese medicine, prescriptions and crafts are protected by state secrets, and its traditional production techniques have been listed in the national intangible cultural heritage, winning the National Quality Gold Award.
According to the Southwest Securities Research Report, like Yunnan Baiyao, tablets belong to the national top-secret formula, and in the chinese patent medicine market for liver disease drugs, tablets account for the first proportion.
Tablets are mainly made of bovine yolk, musk, panax notoginseng, snake bile and other materials, of which musk is the most rare. The tablets have always been said to use natural musk.
It is understood that the mainland implements a quota system for natural musk, and tablets are the first batch of drugs approved to use natural musk in 2005. The state requires that all proprietary Chinese medicines containing natural musk ingredients be produced and sold to implement a special labeling system for the management of the management of wild animals in China. Other proprietary Chinese medicines that are not qualified for the use of natural musk are replaced by the same amount of artificial musk.
Top-secret formulas, scarce raw materials and the mystery of traditional Chinese medicine with a long history are the root causes of the "miracle medicine" that Katazai has been enshrined, triggering a hype frenzy in the market, and the center of hype is mainly concentrated on Katazai ingot products.
A 3-gram tablet tablet tablet is retailed at 590 yuan in the official channel, but in the middle of 2021, when the hype was hot, the price of a tablet was sold to 900-1600 yuan.
At the time when the hype of the film was hot, the official of the film was restricted to deal with it, and the online was in a state of no stock, while the offline limited sale, each person could only buy 2 pills per day.
Out of the needs of work, Huang Qing (pseudonym), who has long been concerned about the pharmaceutical industry, bought 2 pills of tablets of the drug at the original price of 590 yuan / capsule in the flagship store of the katazai pao line in June 2021, "When I bought this drug, the market speculation had not yet reached the hottest stage, and then I could not make an appointment to make an appointment to buy." ”
Huang Qing told Bullet Finance that last year, scalpers bought the drugs in her hands at a higher price, but she did not want to promote the bull's hype, so she did not take action. Some time ago, she passed a second-hand recycling stall, and the recycling price of a piece of tablets was only more than 300 yuan.
"Before the drug of tablets could be fried to such a high price, it was by relying on dealers to hoard goods, but now, dealers are not hoarding goods, and even scalpers have to buy at a discount." Huang Qing said.
Tablets have both prescription and over-the-counter drugs and are not Medicare drugs. According to the announcement of Katazai, the main mode of domestic sales of its pharmaceutical products is pharmacy sales and cinema sales, of which pharmacy sales are the mainstay. Among them, the pharmacy sales model mainly includes the Katazai Experience Hall, chain pharmacies, regional distribution and retail pharmacies. The cinema sales model is mainly to sell and supply the company's cinema varieties to hospitals through centralized drug procurement platforms around the world.
This also means that the katazai company, which has a top-secret formula and the right to use scarce raw materials, has less hospital procurement price pressure and has greater pricing power, and when the hype prevails in 2021, the katazai does not increase the supply of various channels as Maotai restricts speculation, but unilaterally restricts sales, which invisibly boosts the high speculation in the consumer market and the secondary market.
Nowadays, the supply of tablets does not seem to be too much of a problem. At the end of June 2021, the online channel of "Bullet Finance" did not search for information about the drug of Tablets. However, now in the inquiry, Taobao's "Katazai Pharmacy Flagship Store" is not short of stock, but has taken purchase restriction measures.
Among them, the purchase limit of one spindle at a price of 590 yuan is 4 pieces, the purchase limit of four spindles priced at 2360 yuan is limited to 1 piece, and the purchase limit of two ingots priced at 1180 yuan is limited to 2 pieces; The price of 708 yuan is limited to 15 pieces of 12-pack tablet capsules.
"It is not that the production capacity of the company cannot be improved, but it itself sells the drugs of the tablets into luxury goods. Natural musk is indeed scarce, and it is indeed increasing in price, but do you say that the tablet medicine must use natural musk? In fact, it is not, it is not willing to use artificial musk. Huang Qing told Bullet Finance.
When the outside world's enthusiasm for the speculation of tablets and tablets has faded, its "storytelling" in the capital market has naturally been greatly reduced, and the glory of soaring stock prices has not returned to the past.
3 Weak pluralism
Although holding top-secret recipes and scarce raw materials is a "competitive weapon", it also limits the growth space of Katazai.
Scarce raw materials doom the boundaries of expansion, but the capital market needs a "growth story". Over the years, Katazai has repeatedly increased the price of its products, which has led to an increase in performance.
According to the Southwest Securities Research Report, from 2004 to 2020, the domestic retail price of Katazai was raised 10 times. In 2020, Katazai announced a price increase to 590 yuan / capsule. The reasons for the price increase are basically the rise in raw material prices and labor costs.
In order to tell a better growth story, Katazai is also promoting the development of other drugs. In the 2022 semi-annual report, Katazai pointed out that the katazai brand Angong beef yellow pills (double natural product specifications) made of natural musk and natural bovine yolk and other medicinal materials have been successfully introduced to the market.
In addition, the company continues to expand and strengthen compound tablets Zai Zhen Lozenges, compound tablets Zai Zhen ointment, compound tablets Zai Zi Hemorrhoid ointment, Yin Bili Ping Liver Capsules, Xin Shu Bao Tablets, Breast Enhancement Cream, Chuanbei Clear Lung Syrup, Qing Heat Cough Granules, Shaolin Orthodontic Essence, Huoxiang Zhengqi Capsules, Pediatric Cough Syrup and other products, covering liver disease drugs, cold medicines, dermatology drugs and many other fields.
In addition to the pharmaceutical industry, Katazai is also involved in cosmetics, daily chemicals and food industries.
According to the introduction of Katazai, its holding subsidiary Katazai Cosmetics has a number of brands such as "Katazai" and "Queen", of which "Katazai" brand cosmetics have "3+3+1" special effect skin care product line and men's clean and cool oil control series; The "Queen" brand has launched a high-end upgrade, focusing on the launch of three light luxury herbal skin care product lines of anti-wrinkle, whitening and soothing.
"Bullet Finance" was seen in Taobao's "Official Flagship Store of Katazai", whose cosmetics covered many categories such as facial cleansing, toner, essence, etc., while the "Katazai Tsai Zhen Wash and Care Flagship Store" mainly sold its shampoo, toothpaste, shower gel and other products. However, these "cross-border products" have not yet opened brand awareness, and the evaluation among consumers is also average.
"The cosmetics business of Katazai zhen is currently doing something, which is still quite surprising to me." I was not optimistic about their cosmetics business at all, and I felt that the packaging low felt very low grade and expensive, but I didn't think of doing it directly. Huang Qing sighed at the "bullet financial outlook". However, another consumer said, "Never heard of this brand of skin care products", "Is it not a medicine?" I actually made skin care products."
According to the financial report data, like the drugs of Katazai, the cosmetics and daily chemical industry sectors of Katazai are also a high-margin business sector, with gross profit margins of 70.01%, 60.53% and 67.01% respectively from 2019 to 2021.
In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of the cosmetics and daily chemical industry (daily necessities and cosmetics) was 635 million yuan and 905 million yuan respectively, an increase of 27.65% and 42.49% respectively. However, by 2021, the revenue of this business segment fell by 7.05% year-on-year to 841 million yuan.
In the first half of 2022, the revenue of the cosmetics and daily chemical industry sectors was 350 million yuan, down 19.08% year-on-year, and it was also the only sector with negative growth among its three major business sectors. Its proportion in the overall revenue of the company is not too high, accounting for only about 8%.
In the same period, the revenue of the food business of Katazai was only 72.5557 million yuan, accounting for less than 2% of the total revenue, and the gross profit margin was only 11.51% in the case of a year-on-year increase of 4.72 percentage points, which can be said to be in its infancy.
"Bullet Finance" was seen in Taobao's "Katazai Food Flagship Store", where there were bird's nest, honey, American ginseng, ginseng, tea and other products on sale, but there were very few transactions.
In summary, it is not difficult to see that at present, in addition to the tablets of drugs, the company still does not have a "second growth pole" that can be taken.
4 Conclusion
From "one grain is difficult to find" to sufficient supply, the stock price of Katazai has also experienced a process from hot to being snubbed. There are different views on whether the current katazai stock is worth buying.
At present, when the stock price of Katazai has fallen all the way, there is still capital buying its shares, and the CEIBS Medical and Health Fund under Gülen, known as the "goddess of medicine", entered the list of the top ten shareholders of Katazai at the end of the first quarter of last year. According to the financial report of Katazai, in the first half of this year, the CEIBS Medical and Health Fund increased its holdings of 345,800 shares of Katazai and currently holds 8.2151 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 1.36%, making it the fifth largest shareholder of Katazai.
"In my opinion, many pharmaceutical companies can currently read the bottom, but I don't have the confidence to really buy it." But all pharmaceutical stocks, I think we should buy with caution, especially in the current situation where the stock market is not moving well. Huang Qing said to "Bullet Finance".
When the drug is no longer "hard to find", can the tablets that have lost the value of hype still be on the "altar"? Time will tell.
This article is derived from the Bullet View of Finance