China's shrimp production has been poor at the peak of the summer harvest, pushing up the purchase price of Pond mouth shrimp on farms. However, china's shrimp imports are surging, especially from Ecuador.
First, diseases, Vibrio, and sluggish market demand are affecting China's shrimp market
A farmer in southern China said that this summer, bad weather and disease outbreaks plagued shrimp farming in south China, resulting in the survival rate of farmed Penaeus vannamei in some areas dropping to 20-30%. In particular, outbreaks of vibriosis are particularly prevalent, with high temperatures and heavy rains promoting the spread of bacteria and other shrimp diseases, which has caused many farmers a lot of losses.
A well-known person in China's aquatic products field also said: This year, the situation in the main shrimp-producing areas in southern China is very difficult. This year (southern) shrimp farming, has not made any progress, the Yangtze River region and the surrounding three regions, especially in Jiangsu, shrimp farming is not effective, some places of shrimp farms have to close.
Domestic Chinese buyers seem to be feeling the shortage of supply and are somewhat concerned about the country's huge live shrimp consumption market, as China's huge demand for fresh products remains unmet. According to the latest price list for shrimp, tangkou purchase prices have been on an upward trend throughout this summer and have reached record highs in the year in some areas.
In July, the purchase price of Penaeus nicholas ponds in Guangdong Province averaged 56.75 yuan (US$8.43/kg) per kilogram, up 38% from the same month in 2021, the highest price for the month since historical price records were recorded in 2014. For smaller size shrimp, prices are also higher in July. The average price of 60 Penaeus vannamei increased by 35% year-on-year to 35.00 yuan / kg.
Second, drought + heavy rain also give this year's shrimp farming industry, facing layers of obstacles.
Not so long ago, weather conditions were expected to improve after severe droughts and heavy rains, and although production trends declined due to the decreasing stockpile of shrimp in most ponds, the belated respite seemed to have arrived.
One analyst pointed out: "This year the south is drier, with less rainfall and very high temperatures, which has an impact on shrimp farming." In addition, the high temperature and heavy rain weather are not suitable for shrimp. Because shrimp are sensitive animals, they cannot cope with these conditions. ”
Another analyst also said that the poor harvest of shrimp production in southern China does not necessarily mean that China's shrimp production has declined this year, because production in northern China is much better. After years of practice, can the increase in production in the north make up for the decrease in production in the south? In fact, I think that China is so big, there are many different variables, making the actual output difficult to estimate. “
A third analyst said farmers in southern China have begun to switch to penaeus monodon (King Kong shrimp), and many farmers have achieved higher survival rates. So I think, in general, shrimp production this year is stable.
Third, the import market and China's shrimp production are completely in two opposite directions.
The problems faced by Chinese aquaculture producers stand in stark contrast to China's import market. Some industry sources said,
According to customs data, China imported a record 59,800 tons of shrimp from Ecuador in July. Total imports of frozen warm water shrimp reached a record 93 000 tonnes this month. In addition to record imports from Ecuador, China also imported 16,000 tons of shrimp from India and 6,500 tons of shrimp from Vietnam.
A shrimp importer in Beijing said: "At present, there are many imported shrimps that are pressing on our hands. If we don't sell, we'll just have a growing backlog of shrimp. ”
The importer in Beijing said the current level of shrimp supply was at odds with current domestic consumption as China's consumer market was plagued by a downturn in the real estate market and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. At present, the ratio of renminbi to 1 US dollar has fallen to around 7.00 yuan, compared with 6.31 yuan in February. This makes the exchange rate of our orders relatively low, but the current exchange rate is very high.
The importer went on to say that the result is that Chinese importers are currently suffering losses on every sale in China because foreign offers for shrimp shipped to China are currently higher than the Chinese sales price. A 9.5 kg case of frozen imported White Shrimp of South American, with a size of 50/60, has a wholesale price of 570 YUAN in China (about 82.47 US dollars, or 9.16 US dollars / kg). However, the foreign quotation is 620 yuan. There is a difference of 50 yuan. So, I think shrimp imports will definitely decrease because the cost is too high and importers will now lose money.
A shrimp importer in Shanghai said that imported shrimp traded in China did not look good.
The importer said that during the epidemic this year, the market was worse than in 2020, especially in the first half of 2020, supermarket sales were strong, in stark contrast to the weak retail sales this year, and supermarket shrimp purchases were not as much as before.
"Demand in the foodservice industry has also declined, especially since The outbreak in April in Shanghai has not been fully open, which has not happened to us in the past few years. In addition, this year's import prices are unexpectedly high, the price of imported shrimp is not ideal, many importers have lost a lot of money, and the price fluctuates greatly. ”
According to customs data, the average unit value of Ecuadorian shrimp imported from China in July was US$6.30/kg, up from US$6.13/kg in July 2021.