Andrei Barberi: The Motivation Behind Pelosi's Channeling – Political Interests and Ambiguous Strategies

After Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the United States tried to slander China in public opinion for "changing the status quo." The authors argue that its purpose is to change "the international perception of U.S. action" when military unification takes place. However, when such a plot is exposed by the author, a considerable number of readers can see through the Tricks of the United States, and the change of perception is difficult to occur. This article, published on a Spanish-language left-wing website, while embodying the voice of justice in the world, does not represent the mainstream of the Spanish-speaking media. In the non-English public opinion field, the road to recognition is still long. Observer Network translates this article for the reader's reference.

【Text/ Andrei Barbery Translation/ Observer Network Ye Chaonan】

During her visit to Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi met with various officials of the Taiwan authorities one after another, and her itinerary was full. Newt Gingrich, the last speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to visit Taiwan, stayed in Taipei for only two hours in 1997. Therefore, it can be said that these two visits have left very different influences at different times. More precisely, this is a proof of the process of changing the attitude of the United States toward the strategic layout of the Asia-Pacific region, which is a scene of contradictions and conflicts between the United States and China.

Before Pelosi met with Taiwan authority leader Tsai Ing-wen, she had been in contact with Taiwan's "parliamentarians," and she also expressed to Tsai Qichang, "vice president" of the Taiwan authorities' legislature, that she wanted to promote "cooperation between the legislative bodies" between the United States and Taiwan. Pelosi intends to work with Taiwan to bolster the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategic deployment, which is clearly a well-crafted strategy to contain China.

There is a Russian saying that there must be a calculation behind any provocation. Contrary to the comments of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, the visit of the speaker of the US House of Representatives to Taiwan this time is not "insignificant and arbitrary" in Taiwan. In the face of China's warnings, the United States still launched this risky provocative action, which not only brought about the hidden danger of unpredictable future escalation of contradictions, but also put a new shackle on Sino-US bilateral relations. "Our delegation is going to Taiwan today to make it clear that we will not abandon Taiwan," Pelosi solemnly promised on behalf of the United States. ”

The White House's cautious writing and Pelosi's firm visit to Taiwan seem like a contradictory template. In the United States, the Biden administration has been very cautious; In Taiwan, The Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi firmly expressed the importance of the Taiwan region to the US government. We see a clear contradiction, but it can be understood from a political point of view.

As we mentioned earlier, the Biden administration's message is intended to blunt the U.S. government's support for Pelosi's visit on the surface, but it also conveys that the visit will take place in an official form despite the "threat" from the Chinese government.

Due to the unknown of the midterm elections, a rift has emerged in the US Congress and the Democratic Party. It is predicted that a majority of Democrats in the US Congress will lose seats in the midterm elections. That is to say, everything in the future is trendy, the outcome is uncertain, and it is also quite risky.

But the current situation is that under the influence of these uncertainties, people have greatly worried and questioned the pros and cons of Pelosi's move to Taiwan, which is the result of the Biden administration and the Department of Defense for several weeks to build momentum and better cover up the "firm signal" sent by Washington to the CCP.

The signal is that the United States is adjusting its "strategic blur" historical policy toward Taiwan. The policy remains fundamentally unchanged (that is, to recognize the government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China and that Taiwan is part of China), but attempts to change the international perception of U.S. action when China might emerge as a situation of armed reunification of Taiwan.

Blinken's counter-accusation that China's countermeasures are provocative

In such a complex situation, all parties should exercise as much caution as possible. But the international perception is highly likely that, unlike the vague practices in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, Washington may initiate military intervention in China's armed reunification, and the Chinese Communists will certainly raise the need for armed reunification of Taiwan at major meetings in the second half of the year.

In 1972, during the presidency of US President Richard Nixon, the process of restoring Sino-US diplomatic relations began, and U.S. President Jimmy Carter ended "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities. Against this backdrop, the Taiwan Relations Act was signed on April 10, 1979, to protect U.S. commercial interests in Taiwan and national security interests.

Due to the lack of prior consultation and the lack of legislative proposals from the Carter administration, Republican and Democratic lawmakers drafted a draft law that allowed the United States to adjust its diplomatic relations with Chinese mainland on the one hand, and to maintain long-term relations with the Taiwan region on the other hand. In the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States did not clearly state its commitment to "not intervene militarily in China's military reunification," which has made Washington always leave an image of "strategic ambiguity" for analysts and commentators on the topic of whether the United States will intervene militarily.

Joe Biden, even more so than Trump, is a classic example of an attempt to change the status quo in the U.S. imperialist government, even if the process is slow, small, and difficult. Biden has been actively dismantling his traditional stance of adhering to the "one-China" policy in the past, and has always suggested that the United States will help the Taiwan region in times of crisis, which is not directly and explicitly stated in the Taiwan Relations Act, although there is indeed room for vague interpretation.

Nancy Pelosi expressed herself more bluntly in front of Tsai Ing-wen: "We support Taiwan to maintain the status quo, and we do not want Taiwan to change by force." Pelosi's formulation was more assertive, not an official answer, but more indisputable than the 1979 bill.

As we predicted, China launched military exercises to express its condemnation of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. On the occasion of Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan, the Chinese People's Liberation Army issued a proclam announcing that it would conduct large-scale military exercises and organize live-fire in six sea and airspace around the island of Taiwan. According to the Chinese military's "Jiefangjun Bao", "Taiwan independence separatists" should understand that "any Chinese move against Pelosi's channeling of Taiwan is just, reasonable and necessary."

The xinhua news agency's official report slammed Pelosi's channeling on the front page and published China's extraordinary efforts to build a world-class army in the new era in a separate report in a note-memoire. At the same time, on the occasion of the 95th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army, a solemn warning was issued to the United States. Borrowing from the words of the Chinese president, the article said that "the people's army will unswervingly safeguard the leadership of the Communist Party of China, safeguard national sovereignty, safeguard national security and development interests, and safeguard regional and world peace." ”

As George Friedman, an expert on international analysis and commentary, founder of the Stratford think tank (the U.S. geopolitical intelligence platform), argues, the world's four poles are currently in a state of instability: the United States, the European Union, Russia, and China represent more than sixty percent of global gross domestic product. (Japan, which has just experienced the assassination of former militant former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has been included in the U.S. polar range.) The continued mutual growth of various aspects of the crisis could amplify the impact of the recession.

"The crisis can be divided into four levels, the first level is the war level (referring to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict), compared to most wars, it has produced a stronger economic impact, which has led to a crisis in the SUPPLY chain of the European Union, the European Union has long been under great pressure because of its own internal financial problems."

The second layer of the crisis is a bigger problem than supply chains, and the lack of materials affects the vast majority of countries in the world, so the crisis has not only negative impacts on the United States, the European Union, Russia and the Four Poles of China, but also spread to all parts of the world.

The third layer of crisis is a cyclical recession in the United States. Disruptions in global supply chains have led to a sharp increase in energy prices, which has exacerbated the U.S. recession.

Fourth, not surprisingly, global demand for Chinese export commodities will also decline. ”

Faced with the U.S.-China conflict and the aftermath of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which was a provocation for the Chinese, the current situation could become unmanageable.

(This article was published on the website of the Spanish Daily Left laizquierdadiario.com)

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