Frequent appearances? Saudi Arabia's "blood-stained prince" has once again embarked on the road to becoming a king

Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman (Xinhua News Agency, Photo/Photo)

Since the brutal dismemberment and murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has rarely appeared in the public eye.

Salman, 36, was blamed for the murder and was called "the world's most dangerous man." After four years of silence, Salman is now making frequent appearances on the international stage.

Step out of the political shadow of transnational murder

On April 28, 2022, in Jeddah's royal palace, Salman grinned and extended his hands to warmly embrace visiting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In front of the camera, Erdogan's expression was slightly stiff and embarrassed, but he still squeezed out a smile, giving the impression of a smile and a vendetta against the outside world.

"The killing instructions come from the highest levels of the Saudi royal family." Four years ago, after Saudi journalist Khashoggi was killed at the country's consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, Erdogan angrily denounced the Saudi royal family and pointed the finger at Saudi Crown Prince Salman.

In an audio recording released by the Turkish police, the victim, Khashoggi, not only clearly screamed, but also warned the Saudi consul general in Istanbul, Otaibi, "Go outside and do it!" You're going to hurt me!" ”

There is also the sound of flesh and blood being sawn off in the live recordings. At that time, Khashoggi entered the Saudi consulate because of divorce procedures, and he repeatedly wrote articles in the Washington Post column criticizing Saudi Crown Prince Salman.

After the assassination scandal was exposed by the Turkish government, the Saudi royal family denied the existence of the murder for a time. As the Turkish side revealed more evidence, the Saudi royal family was embarrassed to admit that the Assassins had killed Khashoggi "for a moment".

In October 2018, Saudi King Salman ordered the creation of a special cabinet committee, headed by Crown Prince Salman, to rectify Saudi intelligence. The judicial investigation only published the results, not the planning, process and details of the assassination. Among them, 5 people involved in the case were sentenced to death.

Salman is suspected of being behind the murder, but he has not been punished in any way, and he invited Khashoggi's son to receive "condolences" and made a photo of the two public.

The mutilated remains of Khashoggi are still unknown. Turkish prosecutors suspect that he has been sent out of the consulate to dissolve his body, and the criminal investigation launched by turkey, which lasted more than three years, has been fruitless.

In April 2022, on the eve of President Erdogan's visit to Saudi Arabia, the Turkish police and prosecutors announced the termination of "all investigations" into the Khashoggi case, not only withdrawing the red notice issued to Interpol, but also canceling the criminal charges against 26 Saudi assassins, and even handing over all case information to the Saudi judiciary.

Saudi Arabia has lifted import sanctions and doubled its investment in return, which can be described as "sending charcoal in the snow" for Turkey in the deep "economic winter", which also confirms that "there is no eternal enemy, only eternal interests" in international relations.

After four years, the attitude of the United States toward Saudi Crown Prince Salman is also a one-hundred-and-eighty-degree turn. On July 16, 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden embarked on his first trip to the Middle East since taking office.

When they met, Biden and Salman used a fist bumper instead of shaking hands, which made Biden's handshake with the Saudi king and Salman's father appear dwarfed. Four years ago, Biden twice said at presidential campaign rallies that he would "investigate to the end" of Khashoggi's murder.

The words are still in the ears, but the fist bumping ceremony of the two replaces the vow of "checking to the end" four years ago.

Before his murder, Khashoggi had a U.S. green card and was applying for U.S. citizenship. But Saudi Crown Prince Salman was revealed to have had a personal relationship with Jared Kushner, then-U.S. President Donald Trump's son-in-law. As a result, Trump has not criticized the Saudi royal family in accordance with the so-called diplomatic principle of "human rights values first."

Adhering to the creed of "friends of enemies, not friends," Four years ago, Biden fiercely criticized the cruelty and despotism of the Saudi royal family. With the passage of time, the high inflation brought about by the new crown epidemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Biden administration has also abandoned the traditional "value diplomacy" and enthusiastically extended an olive branch to the Saudi royal family.

According to Reuters, the Biden administration is also interested in lifting the ban and allowing the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia.

From "Enlightened Monarch" to "The World's Most Dangerous Man"

Salman regained recognition from the Western world. Before Khashoggi's murder, Salman was popular with the international community as a reformer and an open-minded person.

"He was a serious and cautious man... Some people praise its youth and achievements, and some people point to its blind adventurism. But what is certain is that he will play an important role in the international political arena. The Economist article predicted in May 2016.

According to public information, Salman was born in August 1985 and attended important meetings with his father at the age of 12. Instead of smoking, drinking, or studying in Europe and the United States, as most princes do, he chose the law department of King's University of Saudi Arabia, where he was exposed to stocks and capital trading as a teenager.

After being made crown prince, Muhammad worked to create the image of "a young reformer who broke away from the country's conservative history" to gain the support of a young group of nearly 70 percent of the country's population.

"By 2030, we will no longer rely on oil." Mr. Salman pushed for structural economic reforms, and he pushed ahead with the Vision 2030 economic plan to build Saudi Arabia into "the center of the Arab and Islamic world, an investment powerhouse, and a hub connecting three continents."

In internal affairs, Crown Prince Salman unleashed an "anti-corruption storm", and on November 4, 2017, almost overnight, at least 11 princes, 4 ministers, 11 former ministers and many wealthy businessmen were arrested and imprisoned. But his "anti-corruption storm" has been blamed primarily against its political opponents.

Diplomatically, he has shown a tough side, successively forcing the Lebanese prime minister to resign, sending troops to Yemen, fighting the local Houthis, and becoming more tough on Iranian Shiites.

Salman was tall, often referred to as "MBS" by english initials, and he had a full beard, a deep voice, and full of energy. Compared to many other princes who speak British accents, wear suits and shoes, and have degrees from prestigious universities such as Oxford University, Salman is a maverick.

Dressed in traditional robes and sandals, he often entertains friends and family in luxurious desert camps and enjoys a roast lamb meal together.

In the sphere of social life, Salman advocated openness, and unlike other members of the royal family, he took only one wife. He married Princess Sarah bint Mashhoor bin Abdulaziz Al Saud in 2008 and has three children.

Salman also pushed ahead with the house of representatives giving women the right to drive, allowing them to go out on their own to watch movies, concerts and sports competitions. In December 2017, Salman ordered the lifting of the 35-year-old ban on cinemas.

In the Cabinet, Salman led the establishment of the Ministry of Recreation Affairs as a way to reduce the authority of the religious police. At the High Council of Islamic Scholars, Salman supported young religious scholars speaking on social media.

"The success of the Saudi government's PR strategy is that by highlighting social reforms and issues such as allowing women to drive, it has raised the country's international image without any practical assurances about many issues involving political negotiations or human rights." In an interview with Al Jazeera, Jane Kinninmont, a senior fellow at the Chatham Institute, a London think tank, said.

However, Salman's "reform and opening up" has also had a mixed reputation. Supporters called him a "leader of the Middle East," while political opponents slammed him as a "cold-blooded dictator."

Khashoggi was not the only victim. According to the Washington Post on August 8, 2022, in the first half of 2022 alone, more than 34 million saudi Arabia executed 120 prisoners, more than in 2020 and 2021 combined, most of them are political prisoners who participated in or organized demonstrations. However, Saudi authorities called him a "terrorist.".

"Expert in court struggle"

Salman's "road to kingship" was unexpected, and he rarely appeared in the public eye. For years, the outside world has wondered: How did he stand out from the thousands of royals with the title of prince?

In 2007, Prince Salman, then 22, began his political career by working as a full-time adviser to the Council of Ministers for two years. Two years later, he became a special adviser to his father, then governor of Riyadh, and continued to serve as a part-time adviser to the Saudi Cabinet's Committee of Experts.

After his father ascended the throne, he was appointed Minister of Defence in January 2015, becoming the youngest defense minister in the world. That year, he led and directed the multi-country war against Yemen.

To this day, the war in Yemen is unwinnable and has resulted in thousands of civilian casualties and displacements, but the war has won Salman widespread support from nationalists.

In the Arabian Peninsula, where the desert is 95 percent deserted, traditions of family politics are deeply entrenched. In 1925, Abdul Aziz Al Saud established Saudi Arabia. After the death of the "founding king", his 36 sons formed a "fraternal alliance" and deposed the successor King Shodder through a palace coup.

Since then, Saudi politics has implemented a "brother to brother" model, and many brothers rank seniority according to ability, prestige, seniority, number of siblings, and the strength of matrilineal tribes.

Time has increasingly threatened the "brother to brother" model, and "passing on brothers without sons" has led to the new king who succeeds to the throne getting older and older, and the latter often does not have enough energy to govern the country.

The politics of old age is also at odds with Saudi Arabia's demographics, with young people under the age of 30 currently making up about 60 percent of the country's population.

In January 2015, the sixth Saudi King, Abdullah, passed away and Salman succeeded him as the new king. At that time, his first crown prince was Prince Mukharin, one of the first saudi princes, and the second crown prince was Mohammed bin Naif, the son of his half-brother Naif.

Naif died in office as crown prince. Initially, it was widely believed by the royal family that King Salman would follow the traditional "brother to brother" model. Three months after his ascension to the throne, King Salman abruptly deposed Muklin as first crown prince because of his humble birth mother.

Before the abolitionist movement, Muklin's birth mother was a Yemeni slave who was presented as a gift to King Abdul Aziz.

Muklin was forced out. Salman's mother came from a much more noble family, and her mother, Princess Fahda, was from the Ajman tribe, whose grandfather was the head of the tribe.

On the "road to kingship", Salman also has a "stumbling block", which is his cousin Muhammad bin Naif. In June 2017, a pre-recorded speech was suddenly broadcast on Saudi television, and Salman announced that he had received "the concession and blessing of his cousin" and became crown prince.

After the "persecution", Salman's cousin Naif disappeared from public view, and the Washington Post said that the latter was placed under house arrest. In December of the same year, Salman, who became crown prince, suddenly expanded the purge of royals, through raids and trappings, including more than a dozen princes, including Prince Avarid, known as the "richest man in Saudi Arabia", who was forcibly imprisoned at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in the capital Riyadh.

This coup d'état "Ritz Hotel Prison Incident" made Salman's image as an "expert in court struggle" famous.

In the midst of the outside world's confusion, Salman ascended to the throne of the crown prince, ending the "brother to brother" model that Saudi Arabia has continued for many years, and then opened the era of "father and son inheritance" in the Kingdom.

During the purge, the young Crown Prince Salman not only amassed hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth, but also placed the army, the Guards, and the Interior Ministry under the command of the three armed forces, which were originally led by different members of the royal family and balanced each other.

Does the world care more about oil?

In this way, step by step, he took saudi arabia's military, economic and political power into his pocket.

But Khashoggi's murder has already dashed Salman's reputation. He went from "the future of the kingdom" to "the modern ruler of the Arab world" to "the butcher of human flesh" and "the most dangerous man in the world".

Even many Western countries are quite wary of investment from Saudi Arabia, from the eager "oil dollar" to the "blood debt" that can only be avoided.

The original high-profile Crown Prince Salman was also forced to live in seclusion, he was rarely invited to visit Western countries, and many Western politicians were afraid of being involved by this "blood-stained prince".

However, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the global inflation crisis, and the Russo-Ukrainian war has raised international oil prices that have been sluggish. But the West would rather "kill a thousand enemies and inflict eight hundred self-inflicted damage" and sanction Russia's oil production even if it endures high oil prices.

In the international oil community, Saudi Arabia is known as one of the few "Swing Producers", as long as the Saudi royal family's power center orders, the country's oil production can quickly increase or decrease, acting as a stabilizer for international oil prices.

But this time, Saudi Arabia did not follow the pace of the West. The Wall Street Journal article said that Salman's request for oil production increase issued by President Biden was "only read and not returned".

As a result, Biden and other Western politicians can only go to Saudi Arabia in person, and the old bloody case has been left behind, and Salman, who has been silent for a long time because of Khashoggi's murder, has once again appeared frequently in the public eye.

The world seems to care more about oil. Salman has received an olive branch from Western politicians, but he still has not won the understanding of international public opinion.

At a news conference to greet President Biden on July 16, 2022, an American journalist asked in public, "Would you apologize to his (Khashoggi)'s family?" ”

The atmosphere was instantly tense, implying that Crown Prince Salman was responsible for Khashoggi's death, and the crown prince did not answer the awkward question. When the reporter was taken away from the scene by security personnel, Salman had a smile on his face.

Southern Weekend Contributing Writer Zhou Jiawen