Economics and the Turkish economy, after all, one is going to explode, who will blow up first?
Inflation in Turkey is approaching 80%, and the central bank has announced a 100 basis point rate cut, impressing others.... Erdogan economics, through interest rate cuts, forces companies and financial institutions to actively invest, which will increase production and expand supply. As long as the speed of internal circulation is accelerated and the supply capacity is enhanced, inflation is tamed.
To operate in this way is to say that the principles of economics are contrary to each other. However, this practice has quietly become popular. As soon as inflation rose in the United States last year, many Nobel Prize winners signed a letter to support President Joe Biden's use of 3.5 trillion irrigation to curb inflation.
This matter was suppressed by the Republican Party.
However, the other day passed his Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which was $430 billion. Although the overall amount has shrunk by nearly 10 times from 3.5 trillion, it still uses irrigation to fight inflation.
The United States is doing this mainly against China. From the chip bill to inflation reduction, it is a key area of targeted attack on China. Turkey is a bit confused, but there is no doubt that the economy has been collapsing anyway, and it is not bad for the expected risk this time.
Turkey and the United States seem to play a way, but the United States can play Turkey may not be. Why? Because Americans have the world currency, the dollar, but Turkey doesn't. It's a magical place where no economics can find a success story.
Comparing the two charts, it can be found that Turkey's CPI began to rise in 2018, and interest rates also began to rise this year. All the way to more than 20%, inflation also came to around 20%. Since raising interest rates will not solve inflation, let's take a rate cut, and then inflation will come to 80%.
Turkey's current problems are really difficult. Europe is tossed like this, and it is almost impossible to be safe and sound, but fortunately the food can remain stable. Not necessarily other economies, especially the traditional economic powers, are not immune...
Inflation is a common phenomenon in Europe, and not every business can survive high inflation.
High inflation superimposes climatic factors, and the Budle zinc smelter in the Netherlands will start with new maintenance in September; The productivity of Germany's automotive industry, which used to have an average of 500,000 per month, is now less than 300,000...
The current situation in Europe is that because of the import inflation caused by geopolitical conflicts, the money in the industrial chain is earned upstream. Then the profit left for the downstream is pitifully small. Our country is just the opposite, this past article has been elaborated, that is, the price of electricity, coal and so on are pressed. This is also the basis for us to maintain a surplus this year.
What are the consequences of this move?
Inventories across the eurozone have risen for a year in a row, the highest value since there were statistics.
That is, Europe has entered the inventory more than consumed. We all know that inflation is a savings and cash killer, and everyone's daily expenses consume purchasing power, and other places will inevitably cut back on spending.
If this continues, the economic crisis in Europe may be inevitable.
Is This operation in Turkey free from its own crisis, or is it a dying struggle to return to the light? What do you think?
Today's topic is here, the following says our capital market, do not like can be separated.
First sort out the weekend news, followed by technical analysis and prediction:
New energy vehicles ushered in a positive, and the exemption from purchase tax was extended to the end of 2023
The state has made special loans to guarantee the delivery of the building
The National Standing Committee will deploy to reduce the cost of credit for enterprises and individuals, and the LPR in August has more than 10 basis points of room for reduction
The FTSE Russell Index was adjusted, and 98 new stocks such as PetroChina and Tianqi Lithium were included
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will formulate and introduce policies to promote the innovation and development of energy electronics, high-end medical devices and other industries
……
On Friday, the funds in the power sector were relatively fierce, and the positive I expected was not cashed in, depending on the relay status of the funds tomorrow. The periphery fell sharply on Friday, creating pressure on the bears. However, the interest rate cut is expected to have a certain degree of relief, so Friday grabbed a part. Tomorrow if you continue down, you can toss it again.
Technically, the current adjustment has been waiting, and the strength is still around 3218. From the 60 point point point, this decline is in the first half of the formation, that is to say, it is better to stabilize the mood on Monday and toss down to the target position. After this is completed, it will go to the 3-up structure of 60 points, and the target will break near 3322.
Now, let's keep that view.
That is to say, after this wave of retracement, we can have a relatively fat spread.
In several indexes, the CSI 1000 weakened on Friday, but there are still new highs expected. After this high point has passed, we must remember not to fall in love, because this rebound is the structure of the weak in front and the strong in front to retrace. That is to say, the SSE 50 and the CSI 300 should be bottomed out at a low price, and the other one should pay attention to the end.
Now the climate is more strange, the south encounters drought and the north is rarely cool. This has led to some opportunities and challenges in the power sector, a climate that can put a lot of pressure on energy. In fact, earlier this year, the Water Level in the United States fell, most notably at the Hoover Reservoir. Now, our Leshan Giant Buddha has also shown its toes.... Friends in the south have been attacked in the heat wave, and everyone pays attention to the body and protection.
That's all for today, see you next week.