Don't waste a super-large crisis and embrace a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity
The past may have passed, but the future has not yet come
In recent years, many large families have gone to Settle in Singapore.
As a result, buying a house in the past, even if Singapore raises interest rates, will not curb the soaring price of Singaporean houses, especially luxury homes.
On the other hand, the influx of massive funds is like any tightening effort to hedge against Singapore's central mother, and local prices are already very high.
Compared with Hong Kong, Singapore has a lot less eating, drinking and entertainment projects, and the other is a financial center with a weaker function.
However, in the context of the increasingly severe Sino-US industrial chain, Singapore has become one of the very few places where the two economic giants can sit down with each other and talk about business.
In this year's book "Too Big to Fail", special emphasis is placed on the theory of "free trade port - continental economy". In particular, it is noted that the existence of such free trade ports has a stabilizing effect on the oil and paper supply power of continental economies.
Because, the more crazy the internal fuel paper power of these big countries, the more they lack money, the more they need to find cash flow from the outside to make up for their declining savings rate.
In addition to harvesting, the most effective mechanism effect can only be that everyone takes out their own things and runs to the free trade port for exchange, thus generating incremental wealth.
One of the further implications of this theory is that don't look at the swords between China and the United States, but as long as both sides are short of money, they still have to do business. Even if you look at the other party no longer, money is the basis of life, there is no choice.
In this context, the advantages of a place like Singapore have also risen, and they can assume part of the function of a free trade port.
From an effect point of view, this similar place also has the ability to distribute orders. For example, our Shanghai and Hong Kong have the core ability to distribute various orders to the vast mainland.
Singapore's advantage is that the geography is not far from China, the small country policy is good to turn around, and it is a Commonwealth country. Originally, it was the functional setting of the free trade port, which is the core of its current popularity.
Then, the soul torture comes:
- Will Singapore always enjoy the dividends of the Sino-US industrial chain?
- Suppose an inflection point occurs, what does this mean?
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At present, there are still places to invest in the relaxed international atmosphere of the past 20 years, and it is estimated that there are only a few places such as Singapore.
A direct result of the Sino-US industrial chain war is that the space for cooperation between each other is constantly compressed, and even often the sword is fierce.
Moreover, this is still the intention of both sides!
In essence, in fact, both sides are also dismantling various protective fences, and they are preparing for the worst.
The difference is that the United States is the moral high ground of high values, and we are "passively fighting back" with a posture of near victimism to "reverse cut sausages", and we are also standing on the moral high ground (the Americans forced us).
Obviously, in the context of the reverse cut of sausages, the United States won the face, and we won the lizi.
From domestic alternatives to digital currencies, from electric vehicles to new energy, etc., this is true in every field.
However, this mutual reinforcement of the removal of the security fence means that eventually there will be a buy war.
Therefore, a place like Singapore is equivalent to rubbing the dividend flow of the "cold peace" period for several years.
Once the next stage of "hot commotion" is entered, it is not affected and it is impossible.
The reason is also very straightforward, "cold peace" shows that it is still necessary to do business and engage in the economy; "Hot commotion" means that everyone feels that the so-called "security" comes first, and the economy comes second.
In other words, at this time, the role and function of the free trade port will be weakened by the new trend of the times and irreversible.
In essence, many of the arch fires in the United States today are a strategy with a strong anti-phagocytic effect.
Whether it is the energy crisis caused by the arch fire Russia, or the arch fire China may further detonate stagflation in the future, it is the idea of striking at the opponent from the economic field.
However, business was originally a business, which was a win-win situation.
If you smash the win-win thing, it is a lose-lose situation, and it is difficult for you in the United States not to be impacted. At a time when institutional costs are already crazy, this is equivalent to an amplifier of domestic risks for the United States, which has long been extremely torn apart by both parties.
The dividends of global trade that could have been rubbed again through a free trade port like Singapore could have been used by the dollar sickle, which is equivalent to a commission. Now it is better that the United States itself abolishes martial arts, which is equivalent to constantly amplifying its own financial crisis.
Therefore, Singapore's continuous riding of the wall is smart, pragmatic, and even more helpless.
However, we are also very clear that when the Sino-US industrial chain war becomes a "hot commotion", it will also enter the countdown.
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Through the wall-ridden Singapore, we see a Russian roulette wheel in which China and the United States are gambling.
The mutual countermeasures at this stage are all about playing "one bullet" and about to play "two bullets".
However, one day, the two sides will shout directly:
For China, industrial upgrading is highly dependent on the stability of the labor force, that is, on the "engineer dividend" in the final stage of the demographic dividend.
We expect that this will be about 5 years, which is the most important 5 years that will directly determine whether we can rank among the developed countries.
If we can do that, it would be the equivalent of boiling frogs in warm water, hollowing out the bottom of the real economy of the United States and its allies, and is an obvious "reverse cut sausage."
This would be a serious blow to America's ability and financial capacity to govern globally, and it would be the first to hit the economies of U.S. allies.
From this point of view, the attack and defense are not far away!
In fact, the recent struggle between the two sides has long escalated, in addition to the semiconductor bill that has been widely concerned, that is, the United States wants to drive our Chinese stocks out of the US stock market in advance.
That is to say, people do not want us to rub the flow and dividends of their capital markets, and want to hit our enterprises from the financing side.
This is bound to make us accelerate our own financial openness, and then strive to absorb more global savings into our own land for our own use.
Once this trend takes shape, a large amount of money will no longer flow out, and many foreign capital will come in, which is unprecedented.
In the past, China was a capital exporter, but if it becomes a capital importer in the future, it will be a matter of drawing salaries from a large number of other economies and free trade ports of other countries.
What's the big deal? The things that can build new trends are the big things. A single symbolic thing is actually insignificant.
The Sino-US industrial chain war, everyone is brewing, they are dragging out time, they are busy preparing for the future showdown.
War is a continuation of politics, and politics is an economic amplifier, and it is all about a bite to eat.
The better who can prepare for the worst in the rough seas, the better they have a chance to become the king of the next era.
Today's article is intended to remind everyone:
- Don't take the Sino-US industrial chain war as the norm, this is still a transitional stage;
- Mutual grabbing is the core of the two-sided game, and the rest are performances;
- China is in the most critical window period of unprecedented impact on developed countries.
Whether it can be achieved or not depends on the next 5 to 6 years!
Life is not easy, articles are not easy, welcome to like, follow, share, forward.
Yang Mou Master, good text continues, wonderful continues!
Author: A Sen, independent economist and independent investor