Monday (August 15) at the beginning of the Asian session, spot gold shock slightly fell, currently trading near $1798, although most of last week the 1800 mark on the gold price to form a suppression, but the United States one-year inflation expectation fell to a 6-month low, the First Decline in US import prices in seven months, investors on the Fed in September interest rate hikes of 75 basis points of expectations fell, on Friday the US Treasury yield fell, help gold prices finally rise to near the 1800 mark, technically, short-term upward momentum still exists, Gold prices will most likely break through the resistance of the 1800 mark this week.
Fundamentally, this week will usher in the US July retail sales monthly rate, commonly known as "horror data", the current market expects the US retail sales in July to fall from 1% month-on-month growth in June to 0.1% month-on-month, or will exacerbate the market's concerns about the recession, is expected to provide further upward momentum to gold prices. In addition, the data shows that net dollar long bets have declined in the most recent week. The survey shows that while the bullish and bearish ratios of analysts are flat, the bullish ratio has nearly doubled from the previous week.
However, U.S. stocks surged and the S&P 500 hit a new three-month high, slightly dampening gold's safe-haven buying needs, focusing on resistance near the 200-day moving average of 1842.60. In addition, the speech of most Fed officials is still biased towards hawks, and gold bulls need to be vigilant.
Fundamentals are mainly bullish
[U.S. import prices fell for the first time in seven months, consumers' one-year inflation expectations hit the lowest in six months]
U.S. import prices fell for the first time in seven months in July, helped by a stronger dollar and lower fuel and non-fuel costs, while consumers' one-year inflation expectations fell in August, the latest sign that price pressures may have peaked.
Import prices, which exclude tariffs, fell 1.4 percent in July after rising 0.3 percent in June, labor Department data on Friday showed.
That was the biggest monthly decline since April 2020 and beat the 1.0 percent decline economists expected. Import prices rose 8.8 percent in the 12 months to July, the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year gains, and 10.7 percent in June.
Other reports released earlier last week also showed the first signs that inflation was finally starting to pull back. U.S. consumer prices were flat in July after rising 1.3% month-on-month in June as gasoline prices fell sharply, despite high core price pressures. Against the backdrop of lower energy prices, producer prices also fell in July.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Finance, said: "Falling import prices and producer prices support such arguments ... That is, overall inflation in the economy has peaked. ”
Excluding fuel and foodstuffs, core import prices fell 0.5 percent in July and 0.6 percent in June. Core import prices rose 3.8% year-on-year in July. A strong dollar is helping to limit core import prices. The report also showed that export prices fell 3.3% month-on-month in July after climbing 0.7% in June.
A University of Michigan survey showed that U.S. consumer confidence picked up further in August from record lows earlier this summer, with short-term inflation expectations for U.S. households falling again against the backdrop of a sharp drop in gasoline prices.
The data showed that one-year inflation expectations fell from 5.2 percent to a six-month low of 5.0 percent, and five-year inflation expectations rose from 2.9 percent to 3.0 percent, remaining within the prevailing range over the past year.
[Net dollar long bets fall to $12.97 billion in recent week]
According to data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, speculators' net dollar long bets have decreased in the latest week.
For the week ended Aug. 9, net long positions in the U.S. dollar fell to $12.97 billion from $17.27 billion in the previous week.
Dollar positions in the InternationalMoary Market in Chicago are calculated based on net positions in the six major currencies of the Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar
【The dollar fell 0.84% last week】
While hawkish speeches by multiple Fed officials helped the dollar rally 0.5 percent last week, the weekly line remained down 0.84 percent as traders weighed the improvement in U.S. inflation data against speeches from Fed officials.
Data from Wednesday and Thursday showed that two other key inflation indicators, consumer prices and producer prices, cooled somewhat in July, prompting traders to scale back their bets on a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its September meeting.
AmoSahota, head of KlarityFX, said, "I think there's still a bit of anxiety in the market because we need to see more evidence that inflation — I wouldn't say it's weakening — is peaking,"
Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera, said, "The Fed will tend to push back against the idea of reversing policy prematurely, which could put all their hard work to lower inflation to the ground." ”
Traders currently expect the Fed to raise rates by around 45% in September and a 55% chance of raising rates by 50 basis points.
Kit Juckes, head of foreign exchange strategy at SocieteGenerale, said the dollar could remain "volatile" in trading.
"The dollar will not fall sharply in a straight line because there is still a danger that the market will repriore the terminal federal funds rate upwards, given that inflation remains high," Juckes said. ”
[US Treasury yields fall, investors continue to pay attention to inflation]
Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors assessed whether a marked slowdown in inflation would slow the Fed's rate hikes.
Analysts believe last Friday's data offers some hope that the worst inflation spike may have passed. Still, many analysts and investors say more evidence is needed to determine what kind of impact Fed policy might be.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said: "The theme now is that if the monthly inflation data is indeed more stable and will need to cut rate hikes, then long-term inflation is unlikely to fall as much. ”
Still, LeBas said, "I'm going to remain skeptical until we see at least one or two more inflation data that suggests rate hikes will slow down." ”
The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 2.849 percent on Friday, its highest since July 22, when it reached 2.902 percent on Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 3.251%.
The two-year/10-year Treasury yield spread was negative 41 basis points, hitting negative 56 basis points on Wednesday, the worst inversion since 2000. This curve inversion is seen as a reliable indicator of a recession in 12-18 months.
[Russia says to strike at ukrainian command post Urank said to repel russian attack]
On the 14th local time, the Russian army said that it hit a number of command posts of the Ukrainian army, and the Ukrainian side said that it repelled the Russian army's attack in the Donetsk area. In addition, the two sides accused each other of shelling the city of Energodar, where the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is located.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a battle situation information on the 14th, saying that the Russian army has attacked multiple command posts of the Ukrainian army in the past 24 hours, and the Russian army has completely controlled the Ude settlement in the Kharkiv area. Using high-precision weapons, the Russian Air Force attacked the 66th and 63rd mechanized brigades of the USSR in the Donetsk and Kherson regions, respectively.
According to the report of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the 14th, the Ukrainian army repelled the Russian army's attack in the direction of Slavyansk, Kramatosk and Avdeyevka in the Donetsk region on the same day. The Ukrainian side said that the Russian army advanced in the direction of Bakhmut and achieved partial success. In addition, the Ukrainian army said that in order to ensure that the Antonovsky Bridge in the Kherson area could not be passed, the Ukrainian army attacked the Antonovsky Bridge on the same day.
According to Russian media reports on the 14th, the Ukrainian armed forces shelled the city of Energodar in the Zaporozhye region twice that day. The first shelling of the adjacent school and kindergarten area resulted in the death of 1 civilian. A second shelling caused a fire in the grass near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.
Fundamentals are bearish
[Fed Barkin says interest rates need to be raised to a restrictive range so inflation can be contained]
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he wants to raise interest rates further to keep inflation under control and will watch U.S. economic data to decide how much of a sharp rate hike he supports at the Fed's next meeting in September.
"I would like to see inflation remain under control for some time, and before we can do that, I think interest rates have to be adjusted to a restrictive range," Barkin said. While the data showed inflation did not accelerate in July, he would like to see inflation at the Fed's 2% target "for some time" before stopping rate hikes. "There's still a lot to do to get to the limit."
Barkin noted that there will be more inflation and employment data coming out before the next meeting, that he will "make decisions close to the meeting" and would like to see the "real" cost of borrowing — that is, the cost of money minus the cost of money to measure inflation and inflation expectations — above zero.
"I think we're on the verge of a full positive real rate, and we need to keep rates there," he said, "and in order to stay there, we need to implement some of the expectations in terms of the path of interest rates." ”
He said the economy had so far weathered the Fed's rate hikes well and the fundamentals were good, adding that unemployment could rise as monetary policy tightened.
[S&P 500 and NASDAQ close higher for the fourth consecutive week]
U.S. Chinese stocks closed higher on Friday with signs that U.S. inflation may have peaked in July, adding to investor confidence that a bull market could be looming and spurring the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to rise for the fourth consecutive week on a weekly basis.
The S&P 500 has risen 17.7 percent from the lows touched in mid-June, and the recent gains were driven by this week's data, which showed that the consumer price index (CPI) rose more slowly than expected, and producer prices unexpectedly fell month-on-month in July
The S&P 500 crossed the much-watched technical level of 4231, suggesting that the index has recovered half of the ground lost since the fall from the record high set in January. Some argue that a 50% retracement is a bullish signal.
Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at InvernessCounsel, said: "It's really just a number, but it's definitely going to make investors feel better – at least for those who are buying near the bottom. I wouldn't yet assert that the bear market is over. There may also be some bad news. But there's a good chance we've seen the bottom.
As of last week's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 424.38 points, or 1.27 percent, to 33,761.05 points; the S&P 500 rose 72.88 points, or 1.73 percent, to 4,280.15, the highest closing price since May 5; and the Nasdaq rose 267.27 points, or 2.09 percent, to 13,047.19.
Last week, the S&P 500 rose 3.25 percent, the Nasdaq rose 3.8 percent, and the weekly line recorded four consecutive positives; the Dow rose 2.92 percent, and the weekly line recorded six consecutive positives.
DecMullarkey, general manager of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLCManagement, said, "There is no doubt that the market has received good news about inflation. Inflation could fall to 7 percent or less by the end of the year, but getting core inflation below 4 percent, or twice the Fed's target, would be harder than markets expected. ”
[Survey: Bank of New Zealand expected to raise rates by 50 basis points for the fourth consecutive time in August to contain high inflation]
The Reuters poll showed the RBNZ would stick to its hawkish stance on Wednesday and raise rates by 50 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, continuing its most aggressive tightening cycle in more than 20 years to rein in high inflation.
A Reuters survey conducted on Aug. 8-11 showed that all 23 analysts predicted that RBB policymakers would raise the official cash rate by another 50 basis points to 3.00% at their August 17 meeting.
ANZ chief analyst Sharon Zolner said. "We think the data is worse than they expected on the inflation side, but not enough to get them into a panic." Interest rates have risen for a year now, the cycle has been going on for some time, and the rate hike has been very large. "If they really decide they need to give the market a go-through, I don't rule out they're going to raise rates by 75 basis points." At this point, we do not think the possibility is particularly high. "
Of the 23 analysts surveyed, all but one predicted that interest rates would reach 3.50 percent or more by the end of 2022, the most aggressive policy tightening since the introduction of the official cash rate in 1999.
Five of the 23 analysts predicted that interest rates would reach 4.00% by the end of 2022, compared to what only one analyst in the previous survey had expected.
Twelve of the 19 respondents predict that the cash rate will stabilize at 3.50% or less by the end of 2023. The remaining seven respondents predict that interest rates will climb to 3.75% or more by then.
Foresight in the future
Kitco's weekly gold survey results show that Wall Street analysts are more divided on the trend of gold prices this week. Of the 11 analysts surveyed, 1 (9 percent) held a neutral view, 5 (45.5 percent) expected gold to rise and five (45.5 percent) thought gold prices would fall, although only 24 percent were bullish in the previous week, indicating that analysts' bullish sentiment had risen.
Most ordinary investors are still bullish on the future, although the proportion of bullish has declined. Kitco's survey showed that of the 216 retail investors, 42.1 percent expected prices to rise (up from 65 percent in the previous week), 28.7 percent thought prices would fall and 29.2 percent remained neutral.
Adrian Day, president of AdrianDay Asset Management, said the upside for gold in the future could be a resurgence of recession fears. "The market is slowly realizing that the Fed cannot effectively lower inflation without triggering a recession. This is positive for gold prices because it means that the Fed will pause interest rate hikes, even if the Fed's tightening policies will not turn. Many economic indicators were already slowing even before the Fed began announcing balance sheet cuts. If the Fed starts to pull back liquidity in any serious way, the recession will quickly get worse. ”
Overall, gold prices are temporarily operating at relatively high levels, technical signals are biased towards bulls, expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have cooled, geopolitical tensions, recession concerns linger, and gold prices are biased towards shock rises in the future.
This article originated from Huitong Network