Core conclusions
Review of opinions
01 Market hotspot thinking
At present, investors have some important divergences on the direction of A-shares, and optimism and pessimism are intertwined.
The main reasons for optimists are:
1. It is believed that the A-share market is still in the upward trend of fundamental reversal, and the macro economy is in the early stage of cyclical positioning in the early stage of expansion;
2, U.S. inflation or usher in a downward inflection point, there is a Fed interest rate hike slowdown expectations, global risk appetite increased, U.S. stocks or out of the technical bear market;
3. There are signs of alleviation of domestic financial risks, and China Huarong is fully involved in promoting the restructuring and bailout of housing enterprises and implementing the policy of guaranteeing and handing over real estate; Multiple places or reduce the down payment ratio of two suites to stabilize the real estate market expectations, which is conducive to the repair of the upstream and downstream of the real estate industry chain. At the same time, August and September are the traditional peak seasons for construction, and there is a demand for replenishment in some upstream and middle industries, and the commodity market is picking up.
Pessimists argue that:
1. The second quarter monetary policy report added new attention to inflation, and the marginal easing of domestic monetary policy slowed down;
February and July financial data were lower than expected, and leading indicators showed that the endogenous growth of the economy was weakening;
3. The uncertainty of Sino-US friction will also affect investor confidence.
We believe that it is necessary to maintain a bullish mindset at this stage.
First, a single-month CPI of 3% due to food prices cannot be a sufficient sine qua non for monetary policy tightening; Moreover, the current market has the expectation that pork prices will bottom out three times. Therefore, monetary policy is likely to continue to be accommodative in an effort to achieve the economic growth target.
Secondly, the july credit data is lower than expected, there are off-season factors, the inflection point signs remain to be seen, the effectiveness of the policy is lagging behind, and the suspension of maintenance in some industries is also a fact. From the perspective of the commodity market, pro-cyclical industrial products and energy varieties are still in the process of rebounding. From the top down, the continuous decline in PPI and the bottoming out of real GDP are still important supports for the U-shaped reversal of the market.
Finally, external disturbances and uncertainties affect investment sentiment fluctuations more. At the moment when the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are slowing down, overseas markets are likely to have an upward valuation repair market, and A shares will also benefit. In addition, from the perspective of the ERP indicator of A-share risk preference, the current risk premium of equity and debt is at a historical low, and the probability of subsequent equity dominance is large.
At present, for the A-share market, the valuation repair market driven by the improvement of global risk appetite is the main driving force. In august and September, the peak season of construction began, and the mesoscopic improvement also provided support for the cyclical value sector. From a stylistic point of view, the July credit financial data is lower than expected, whether it is an inflection point remains to be seen, and the greater probability is the process of low volatility around nominal GDP; Compared with the total amount, the structure is more important, M1, M2 growth rate increased year-on-year, to a certain extent, reflecting the abundant liquidity of the money market, making small and medium-sized growth more beneficial valuation repair market. Therefore, the style may not appear in the performance of the cycle and growth of the same period last year, but more of the rotation within the growth: the spiral of new energy and semiconductors; And the proliferation of hard technology to TMT soft technology.
02 General trend and style
The repair of weak economy and the continued easing of liquidity are the basis of the growth of the structural market in the second half of the year. The total amount and structure of social finance data in July were significantly lower than market expectations, on the one hand, there were factors that slowed down the pace of credit delivery in July after the impulse at the end of the June quarter, on the other hand, changes in external conditions also affected the physical demand in July to a certain extent: under the superposition of multiple factors such as the heating up of the epidemic in many parts of the country, the marginal fluctuation of real estate demand, and the impact of high temperature weather on construction, credit in July fell significantly, of which medium- and long-term loans for residents increased by 248.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans for enterprises increased by 147.8 billion yuan year-on-year. The weakening of the total amount and structure of social financing in July, coupled with the previous decline in PMI data, once again confirmed the market's concerns about the resilience of physical demand repair. The market's expectations for subsequent real economic demand have shifted from unilateral repair since the end of May to volatility and wait-and-see. Since the end of July, the market has once again shown a state of liquidity hoarding in the financial market under the weak physical weakness, and such a macro environment is also an important reason for the recent growth market to the small and medium-sized market value.
Pay attention to the growth of the internal market rotation. We pointed out in the previous weekly report that in the context of the weak repair of the real economy in the second half of the year, it is difficult for the traditional value blue chip to have a strong excess return, and the growth style advantage in the second half of the year is significant, and the market will still rotate within the growth sector. So can the market of small and medium-sized market capitalization continue? We reviewed the historical market stage dominated by the small cap: we see that 2007-2010 and 2013-2014 are two more typical small-cap dominant markets, most of the time in both stages are accompanied by an extremely generous liquidity environment, the relative advantage of the performance of the small cap is the support of the structural market, and the performance advantage behind one comes from the overall and rapid recovery of the economy, and the other comes from the rise of the industrial cycle brought about by the change of leading industries. Overall, the market environment with loose liquidity will most likely spawn a structural market in the small cap, and industrial trends and policy support are also important factors to promote the performance of the small cap. Combined with the above, the relatively loose liquidity environment since the end of July has also been the main driver of this round of small-cap stock repair. We see that the current gap between the valuation quantiles of large-cap and small-cap stocks is already at a level close to historical extremes. In the current weak degree of economic repair and the tone of monetary easing is difficult to turn, which will inevitably lead to a relatively loose liquidity environment compared with the same cycle in the past, in such an environment, the pattern of relative dominance of the small market is difficult to change in the short term, and the weakening of risk appetite and the return of the liquidity environment will bring about a phased return to the growth of the broader market.
03 Meso & Industry
Most of the industry recorded an increase this week, compared with last week's significant recovery, the general rise is still structurally differentiated, cyclical stocks (coal/petroleum and petrochemical, etc.) led to the rise in the value industry, low valuation stable growth industry slightly outperformed the high boom growth industry. In terms of the proportion of turnover, the proportion of weekly turnover of science and technology growth (computer/media/communications) continued to increase, the growth industry in the high-boom midstream (military industry/electric new/automobile) declined slightly, and the steady growth of financial real estate (electric utilities/transportation/real estate) and consumer (consumer services/trade retail/medicine/food and beverage) continued to decline. From the relative return trend and Momentum Graph (RMG) we constructed to observe the trend of excess return trend and short-term momentum in each main line range, the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic and the relative return of the consumption category during the policy vacuum period continued to fall, the growth of high prosperity continued to oscillate upwards, the stable growth shock stabilized, and the resource inflation category ushered in a sharp rebound. July social finance data is less than market expectations, macro policy force is still no obvious signal, the current value rebound is more similar to the rapid decline and the oversold rebound after the sentiment is too cold, the main line still needs to pay attention to the growth of science and technology. From an event-driven perspective, the US Department of Commerce issued final regulations on four technologies such as EDA/ultra-wide bandgap semiconductor materials this weekend to implement new export controls and the US House of Representatives voted to pass the inflation reduction bill, allocating $369 billion for energy security and climate investment, etc., also helped boost the mood of science and technology growth.
After our previous weekly report emphasized the emphasis on the small market value technology growth sector, the small-cap style industry represented by the CSI 1000 performed well, but in the second half of last week, the CSI 1000 briefly lost compared with the SSE 50, and some investors paid attention to whether the previous strong performance of the relevant small market value would be reversed. We believe that the stage strength and weakness of the small market value index represented by the CSI 1000 is only the final result, this large excess result is driven by the industry factors and small market value factors of emerging industries, the appearance is the differentiation of the CSI 1000 index relative to the relative profit growth rate of other indices, and the driving logic of the relative strength of the profit boom is determined by the characteristics of the early stage of the industrial chain profit outbreak, and the small cap companies in the initial outbreak stage of the industry can often show stronger profit elasticity. After the industry pattern is solidified, the big market value leader is easy to get out of the alpha advantage, in addition, if similar supply-side reforms or other factors that lead to macro fundamentals, the large market value of the industry with a higher proportion of the pro-economic cycle may also be superior. In this weekly report, we summarize four characteristics of the current existence of small market capitalization indexes:
Feature 1: After February 2021, the market is interpreting a pure small market capitalization factor and not just limited to emerging industries. In order to exclude the impact of industry factors on the attribution analysis of excess earnings, we divide the primary industries into emerging industries (electrical/electronic/military/machinery/automobile) and non-emerging industries (except for the above five first-level industries). Since the overall market rebound in February 2021 or May 22, the market value group performance of emerging industry-related industries and non-emerging industries samples has also shown the characteristics of simple small market value factor dominance, rather than being limited to emerging industries in the early stage of the industrial chain. Judging from the average yield trend of the large and small market capitalization groups, the dominance of small market capitalization factors began in February 2021, and the trigger point may be related to the rapid upward trend of US Treasury interest rates driven by the acceleration of the Us Federal Reserve after the Spring Festival of 21 years. However, it is undeniable that from the perspective of elasticity, the median difference in yield between the small market value group of emerging industries and non-emerging industries is significantly greater than the difference between the two large market value groups, reflecting that in the early stage of the outbreak of the industrial chain of emerging industries, the profit elasticity of their internal small market value companies is obviously greater than that of non-emerging industry small market value companies.
Feature 2: The excess return of CSI 1000 comes from the resonance of industry factors and market capitalization factors. If the investment direction is taken by CSI 1000 instead of the market value group, it is first necessary to clarify that its excess returns are jointly derived from industry factors and market value. Since March 2020, the phased dominance of the CSI 1000 compared with the CSI 300 has mainly occurred in two periods 1) February 21 to September 21; 2) Since May 22, the absolute return of the two-stage CSI 1000 is 31%/37% respectively. In addition to the attributed market capitalization factor above, from the point of view of the contribution of the industry weight distribution to the index (range industry contribution points = ∑ (constituent stocks. Start Day Weight* Constituent Stocks. Range rise and fall * closing price before the deadline date)), the excess return of the CSI 1000 index in the above two stages is mainly driven by high prosperity growth industries and cycle / cycle growth of two major categories of industries, the two stages respectively contributed to the index of 33% / 32%, 46% / 23% of the increase, it is not difficult to find that the current round of CSI 1000 rise of the industry driving force compared with 21 years, cycle / cycle growth in the two major industries of the basic chemical / non-ferrous, in the case of the option re-adjustment, The contribution to the index declined significantly, while the performance of the CSI 1000 was further supported by the strong performance of the high-growth sector, driven by the strong performance of machinery/automotive/electronics.
Feature 3: The influence of leveraged funds on the CSI 1000 Index has increased significantly in the past year. The correlation between the financing balance of the two cities and the relative return trend of the CSI 1000 is not obvious in the long run, but after February 21, the correlation and inflection point between the two have increased significantly, which may reflect the obvious change in the investment direction of the two financing funds, which may be related to the rapid weakening of the money-making effect of large market value companies represented by the Mao Index at this point in time, and the leveraged funds have re-selected the small market value direction related to new energy as the core excess income acquisition direction, and formed an obvious capital precipitation. Since the beginning of this year, leveraged funds to drive CSI 1000 has experienced significant deleveraging, after re-leveraging in May and June, July and August are more in the stage of stable leverage, the current balance of the two financing is in the 60% quantile since 19 years, considering the expansion of the market's two financing targets and the overall point of the rise, leveraged funds are difficult to say bubble and the downward space is more limited.
Feature 4: The popularity of small market value trading has increased, but it is difficult to say bubble. From the perspective of the transaction heat reflected in the proportion of turnover, in the past 3 months, the proportion of turnover in group 1 (market value below 10 billion) and group 2 (market value of 10-30 billion) has increased significantly, close to the previous high, reflecting the short-term heat is slightly higher, but compared with the average value since 19 years, the proportion of small market value turnover is only slightly above the average, and it is difficult to say that there is a significant bubble.
04 Weekly market overview, portfolio and hot spot tracking
The industry giants have entered the bionic robot, and the industry is expected to gradually enter the public vision. Xiaomi's first full-size humanoid bionic robot CyberOne was released on the evening of August 11. Compared with the bionic quadruped robot, the humanoid robot has a higher mechanical complexity, requiring a more powerful motor, more fuselage freedom, and a complex humanoid bipedal control algorithm, which can realize the balance of bipedal movement posture, strong limbs, and 300Nm of power peak torque. CyberOne is equipped with the self-developed Mi-Sense deep vision module, combined with AI interaction algorithms, so that it not only has a complete three-dimensional spatial perception ability, but also can realize character identification, gesture recognition, expression recognition. On the whole, the research and development of CyberOne involves cutting-edge technologies in various fields, including bionic perceptual cognitive technology, biomechanical fusion technology, artificial intelligence technology, big data cloud computing technology, and visual navigation technology. Previously, electric vehicle giant Tesla has announced that it will launch a prototype of the humanoid robot Tesla Bot "Optimus" on September 30 this year. In terms of configuration, it has a screen on its head to display information, a built-in autopilot system, 8 cameras are installed, the full autopilot system uses the same system that Tesla uses in the car, and the brain is a DOJOD1 supercomputing chip with strong computing power. Musk said Optimus Prime will be used to fill the labor gap, performing dangerous, repetitive or too boring jobs that people don't want to do, and its value will surpass Tesla's electric vehicle and fully self-driving car businesses.
Bionic robots have a wide range of application scenarios, and in the future, they will accurately match the needs of multiple scenarios such as industry, commerce, and family life. Bionic robots can be divided into commercial robots and personal robots, and the application scenarios are more extensive. Commercial robot refers to the robot that performs services in a professional environment, the application scenarios of commercial robots mainly include medical, logistics, agriculture and other (including national defense, public relations, etc.), according to statista data, the current medical and logistics scenarios occupy the largest market share, with global sales in 2021 being 10.1/46 billion US dollars, accounting for about 50% of the total; Personal robots are used in private homes, application scenarios are mainly for household chores (auxiliary vacuuming, floor cleaning, lawn trimming, pool cleaning, window cleaning, home security, etc.), entertainment and leisure (for meeting emotional needs, education, companionship, etc.), statista data shows that in 2021, personal robot sales scale of 9.1 billion US dollars, there is still a large growth potential, the market space is broad. In the future, once the bionic service robot technology is relatively mature and the consumer market demand is determined to form a large-scale commercial use, according to the prediction of the Institute of High Industry Industry, the market size of China's commercial service robots will reach 115.95 billion yuan in 2025, with sales of more than 40,000 units, and the bionic service robot will be the key penetration of the blue ocean market.
From the perspective of supply chain, the bionic robot industry chain can be divided into middle and upstream parts, ontology manufacturing and downstream integrated applications. The middle and upper reaches of the parts mainly include batteries, controllers, servo motors and reducers, etc., of which the reducer is the highest cost of the robot body, according to the data of the high-tech robot, the total cost of industrial robots in the reducer accounted for the highest, accounting for 32%, followed by the servo, shell and controller accounted for 20%, 18%, 15% respectively. Downstream integrated applications focus on technical support, mainly including powertrain systems, intelligent induction systems, motor systems, battery systems, and electric drive systems designed around the three core technologies of bionic robots, human-computer interaction, environmental perception, and motion control. As a special category of robots, bionic robots because of the need to make different reactions in the face of different environments, its system design technology is more difficult, need to load software such as full automatic drive computer FSD (Full Self-Driving computer) for behavior decision-making and motion control, Doj0 supercomputer for neural network automatic training, to a certain extent will accumulate manufacturing costs. Cost control is the first point of whether the future bionic robot can break the circle. Taking Tesla Bot as an example, according to Musk's description, the "Optimus" is expected to sell for $25,000 (about 168,000 yuan) after mass production, and according to the estimate of the High-tech Robot Research Institute, the cost of Tesla Bot will be roughly between 170,000 and 300,000 yuan. The future core parts cost breakthrough is a slow process, the need for explosive single products to promote the acceleration of the bionic robot industry chain, Tesla Bot and Xiaomi CyberOne release the most important significance is to open the rapid development of the entire industry process, will promote a large number of technology companies to the direction of bionic robots to march, the future bionic robot industry trend to accelerate the arrival.
Investment advice: At present, the main ones involved in bionic robots in A shares are still upstream companies in the industrial chain, involving parts motors, reducers, controllers, etc. In the future, it is expected to continue to replace foreign counterparts with cost performance, and it is optimistic that the process of internal migration of the mobile phone/new energy vehicle industry chain will be re-interpreted on the bionic robot. It is recommended to pay attention to robots (mobile robot products and service providers such as Tesla and other new energy automobile manufacturers), Sanhua Intelligent Control (also a supplier of Tesla, management system provider), Collier (domestic servo motor leader) and Greenland Harmonics (harmonic reducer domestic leader).
This article originated from the financial world