Text/Miss Erma
Xu Zhibiao's blunt remarks are often impressive.
For example, on April 26, 2022, the market fell to the bottom, and he bravely expressed his views with a small essay. The article was titled "In the Darkest Hour, a Growth Fund Manager Has Something to Say."
At the end of the article, he quotes Peter Lynch: "Whenever the stock market falls sharply and I am worried about the future, I will recall the fact that there have been 40 stock market crashes in the past history to soothe my somewhat fearful heart, and I tell myself that the stock market crash is actually a good thing, so that we have another good opportunity to buy those very good companies at very low prices." ”
"Xu Zhibiao, who is more and more frustrated and courageous", is probably the impression of him in the street.
Born in medicine, he entered the investment circle by chance and became a fund manager in three years, which can be regarded as a model of "counterattack". He has also been educated many times by the "hammer" of the market, such as taking over the fund in 2015, that is, encountering a bear market.
The first fund Xu Zhibiao took over after coming to Cathay Fund was Cathay Health. As of July 13, 2022, the return on appointment was 123.33% and the annualized rate was 18.61%. The other Cathay Pacific Research Selection, which was selected for two years, was taken over at the end of 2019 and has returned 88.2% and 28.07% annualized return so far.
The data comes from wind. The fund's historical performance is for informational purposes only and does not represent investment advice or commitment. The market is risky and investments need to be cautious.
The market has warmed up slightly recently, listening to Xu Zhibiao talk about recent views. Lots of interesting ideas, and parts that make people laugh.
Optimistic about advanced manufacturing
Xu Zhibiao said: Recently, he still has some views on structural adjustment.
"At the whole big level, there is not much change in the position. Because my combination is relatively large, things that are too big are not very variable, and I generally don't like to do a particularly big move. For example, the top ten, there are many changes, I am not very good. Because the general stock does not reach my goal before the business trend is no problem, I am not going to do big moves. ”
Xu Zhibiao said that in his style, he usually just does some fine-tuning.
Xu Zhibiao, an advanced manufacturer, is very optimistic. "What is advanced manufacturing, that is, there are barriers, and the trend of this industry is better." For example, I am more optimistic about some manufacturing industries in new energy vehicles, such as cathode and high nickel, including those in the traditional automotive industry. The trend of the traditional automobile industry is now going up, the worst time has passed, and it will go up with the resumption of work and production. So I think that like some automotive industry chains, including traditional and new energy vehicle industry chains, it is now a relatively good investment opportunity. ”
"And the valuation of such companies, many to less than 20 times, and its performance growth rate is very fast, is a good opportunity."
If you look at the recovery of the epidemic from the perspective, Xu Zhibiao said, "If you also talk about the recovery of the epidemic, then I am definitely optimistic about the manufacturing industry, because the manufacturing industry has a lot of leverage." And the companies themselves are at a low level. ”
In contrast, airports, hotels, and tourism industries are not necessarily the best choices for recovery.
"You can see that it's interesting that a lot of tourism stocks are near historical highs. Many of these companies are targets of the recovery of the epidemic, but their stock prices have actually risen a lot. I think from the perspective of investment certainty, then I am definitely willing to buy manufacturing. Also benefiting from the recovery of the epidemic, why don't I buy the automotive industry chain, and the valuation is only ten or twenty times. ”
"This is my comparison, everyone's style preferences are different, I think from the perspective of certainty, to put it bluntly, you are ready to take a long cycle, to consider whether you can earn a stable yield." 」 Xu Zhibiao said.
The worst came
"Overall, the worst time has passed," Xu zhibiao believes.
"For example, new energy includes a lot of manufacturing, and its worst stage has passed." The future is at best the pace of recovery, which may be fast or slow. ”
"When the epidemic happened in 2020, our recovery was relatively fast, because it was fast to zero at that time. Now it may be repeated over and over again. But I think, anyway, this factor should already be included in the expectations in the stock market. Before the bad to the end, the future will only develop in a good direction, just look at the process of development. So I think the risk to the stock market in the future, the big risk level, I think the worst time has passed. ”
Looking at another data, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, this category of small and medium-sized market value growth stocks, you can see that the valuation center has reached its historical low.
Speaking of the "darkest moment" of the market in the first half of the year, Xu Zhibiao still has a lot of feelings.
"Historically, there have been few consecutive plunges, and this did happen in April. In less than a month, I fell more than 20 points, which put me in a daze. It is a very rare fall of this kind. ”
Xu Zhibiao recalled, "At that time, many customers, who were also particularly worried, communicated with me. So I wrote this letter at the time. I said you should be optimistic at this time. ”
"In April, the fall was the worst, why did the growth stocks fall in that wave? In fact, it is more of a chip reason. For example, some absolute returns, fixed income + or margin, including snowball products, many of the funds with leverage attributes, it is forced to liquidate, so it led to so extreme in April. Many stocks fell thirty or forty points a month. ”
"My own fund, at one point, fell more than it did when it was circuited, it's hard to imagine. And these companies all belong, and the fundamental performance trend is going up. For example, after the quarterly report came out, the performance was actually very good, but the performance was very good and plummeted. So it's essentially a chip issue, and you may need a stop loss or an absolute gain to stop a loss. ”
"Some things look back like this, but some things are afterthought."
Xu Zhibiao said, "We pursue some certainty from our point of view, and when a company, for example, has a huge increase, I will choose to sell." I am absolutely contrarian, and I am particularly excited when a stock with good fundamentals is absolutely falling and falling randomly. I'm definitely going to add to the position absolutely. ”
He repeatedly said, "My philosophy is simply that slow is fast, and profit and loss are the same source." ”
"From the perspective of selecting stocks, I think that if it meets what we call a target of 15 to 20 points, maybe this company will enter my heavy position, and it may be held for a long time." How to judge this market in the short term is actually quite difficult. But I think it's sometimes easier to think about a problem from a long-term perspective. ”
"My methodology should be relatively stable, and I am pursuing certainty. Of course, I don't think I can buy this type of asset without certainty. ”
This is the real and rational Xu Zhibiao.
Note: Opinions are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. The market is risky and investments need to be cautious.