Sweden and Finland's "NATO Way" hides variables

On 18 May, Sweden and Finland submitted applications to join NATO. Image source North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Comprehensive compilation of Zhang Haotian

In December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his views on the situation at a military meeting: "If our Western counterparts continue to take the aggressive route, we will take appropriate military-technical measures and respond harshly to unfriendly measures, according to the Russian news agency. Obviously, this statement is a warning to NATO that is "advancing step by step".

To this day, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, and NATO, a military bloc that has existed for three-quarters of a century, has been given the opportunity to recruit new members. However, at present, the most promising nato member business card is not Ukraine, but Sweden and Finland, two nominally "neutral" Nordic countries with considerable military potential and important strategic positions.

In mid-May, Sweden and Finland submitted applications for membership to NATO. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at headquarters in Brussels that "this is a historic moment that must be grasped." It is not surprising that some military experts in Europe and the United States have expressed that Sweden and Finland have clearly expressed their desire to join NATO. Britain's Royal Institute for Joint Services commented that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict reminded the two Nordic countries that a stronger and more coherent defensive posture should be established, and that "to ensure security and stability, the countries on Russia's northwest flank should further advance their regional agendas."

According to the analysis of the British "Naval Science and Technology" website, Finland and Sweden have been cooperating with Norway, Denmark and Iceland as NATO members for decades, and even if there is no Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the two joining NATO is a foreseeable process. The accession of Sweden and Finland would bring clear benefits to NATO, but the decision still faces obstacles within both countries and within NATO.

The proportion of military spending is a red line

If Sweden and Finland join NATO, how will it change the geopolitical landscape in Europe? The answer is clear: NATO is one step closer to Russia. At present, Russia is adjacent to three NATO members, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, but the border line is not long overall, compared to Russia's more than 50,000 kilometers of land border, which is insignificant. But if Sweden and Finland join NATO, the length of russia's border with NATO will increase to more than 1,000 kilometers.

Daniel Morris, a defence and security analyst at British data consultancy GlobalData, said Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO would limit Russian movements in the Baltic Sea, forming a flanking cover for the three Baltic states. Given Finland's geographical location and large reserve force, its accession will give NATO a greater strategic advantage in northern Europe.

Morris said both Sweden and Finland have more prominent military potential. Finland has historically fought against the Soviet Union, and Sweden has always regarded itself as a member of the Western world and possesses "very advanced armaments". Still, joining NATO means that their defense policies must be adjusted, especially in the area of military spending.

NATO requires member states to spend no less than 2% of GDP on military spending. Finland currently spends 2.2 percent on defense and plans to spend $6.1 billion a year by the end of the year. Sweden's military spending, which accounts for 1.3 per cent, requires additional appropriations to meet the target.

According to GlobalData, Finland's defence budget grew by 8.6% year-on-year in 2022 and will continue to grow until 2027. This has been helped by major procurement projects, such as the introduction of American-made F-35 fighter jets and the construction of new frigates. Sweden's share of military spending is lower, but actual spending is higher than Finland's, at $8.4 billion in 2021 and expected to reach $9.3 billion in 2027. Affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Swedish politicians have agreed to increase military spending, and the military has proposed reforms. GlobalData predicts that by 2027, Sweden's share of military spending will rise to about 1.8%, still not fully meeting NATO standards.

There are other uncertainties about Sweden's accession to NATO. Morris noted that "most of Sweden's weapons are procured domestically and are imported only when necessary." "Among the Nordic countries, Sweden has the most developed military industry, with a number of arms dealers such as Saab Company, providing the country's military with a large amount of equipment in the air, land and sea.

The Swedish military's reliance on domestic suppliers is seen as a hidden factor hindering its membership in NATO. NATO's requirements for the versatility of the weapons and equipment of member states conflict with Sweden's defense procurement policy. Some argue that nato's requirement is somewhat outdated because Swedish-made weapons have been sold on the international market, and saab, for example, is a number of NATO members whose customers.

Turkey made the conditions by virtue of its veto

The context of the situation seems clear – NATO welcomes Sweden and Finland to join, while Russia has had to re-examine its relations with both countries. Turkey, however, has made NATO's future more variable.

Turkey has been a member of NATO for 70 years, but is not enthusiastic about Finland and Sweden joining. "If necessary, we are prepared to prevent Sweden and Finland from becoming NATO members." Ajiv Quilić, a member of Turkey's ruling party and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Congress, told the U.S. Defense News website.

Turkey has frequently accused Sweden of sheltering Kurds in exile and has demanded that Sweden and Finland stop supporting kurdish communities that Turkey considers "terrorist organizations." Turkey also demanded that the two countries lift the arms embargo imposed on Turkey after turkey's march into Syria and extradite suspects who took refuge in Sweden and Finland and were involved in Turkey's 2016 coup.

Turkey's offers seem "overpriced" for Sweden and Finland. Sweden has a large Kurdish community with hundreds of thousands of refugees. The Finnish government has also been criticized at home and abroad for extradition.

"Turkey's hostility towards two potential member states is undisguised." Morris analyzed, "It considers itself a 'outcast' of NATO and believes that NATO is unwilling to take its own security concerns seriously." ”

Turkey is tough, but the obstacles are still likely to be overcome through negotiations. "Turkey's leaders want to play the winner, in fact, they have been at the negotiating table, and if they can get advanced equipment such as the F-35 or lift the arms embargo, they may compromise." Morris said.

European history is being rewritten

Affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the NATO summit held in Madrid, Spain, at the end of June was given a different color. Nato Secretary-General Stoltenberg has said he hopes that countries will agree on this before the meeting, but he later changed his tune to saying that given the extraordinary complexity of the situation, it cannot be expected to resolve all issues through this meeting.

The coming weeks will be crucial for NATO, Russia and other European countries. The power struggle inside and outside NATO makes it difficult to predict exactly when the organization's new expansion will land. The US "Breakthrough Defense" website published an opinion article saying that the NATO summit was held in Spain this year, reminiscent of the controversy the country faced when it joined NATO 40 years ago.

At that time, Spain, which had experienced military rule, underwent extensive reforms, not only reshaping its role in European defense, but also influencing other NATO countries, bringing new ways of thinking and acting to NATO. Today, the focus countries have been replaced by Sweden and Finland. In terms of their military strength and international status, NATO's routine of absorbing Central and Eastern European countries in the past 30 years may not be applicable, and the current situation may be more similar to the replica of the "Spanish model" in the 21st century.

Another commentary published by Breakthrough Defense mentioned that if all five Nordic countries join NATO, the latter may pay more attention to the strategic value of high latitudes. Sweden and Finland are more accustomed to bilateral and small-scale defense cooperation, and are supporters of the European collective security mechanism, believing that the EU should not only be an economic community, but also a security community, and this tendency will not disappear because the two countries join NATO. As the de facto head of NATO, the United States has shifted military resources to the Asia-Pacific region in recent years, leading to tensions between NATO and the European Union. In the future, Sweden and Finland have an opportunity to play a role in bridging this divide.

"The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is rewriting history, and Sweden and Finland will be key players in this period." As a long-established sovereign state, the traditions of the two countries may reshape the European landscape and even transatlantic relations in an unprecedented way.

Source: China Youth Daily client