As in the past, as soon as there was contact between the top level of China and the United States, The Chinese online media began to sing a détente. Just three days after the Sino-US Defense Ministers' Meeting, Yang Sha met in Luxembourg. Is this a sign of détente between China and the United States?
People are probably very forgetful, what is Biden doing in Asia? Create a circle of encirclement and suppression of China! The U.S. version is "professional," it's about reshaping the strategic environment around China. What are US congressmen doing in Taiwan in waves? Cheer up the DPP authorities! Recently announced $120 million arms sales to Taiwan, this is the Biden administration's first arms sales, remember? What did U.S. Defense Secretary Austin say to Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe? What did he say in his speech at the incense meeting? Have you all forgotten?
Where is the real point of relaxation in Sino-US relations? As long as the United States abandons its current containment strategy and suppression policy toward China, as long as it does not give up, there will be no détente. Are the experts and scholars singing the pacifist tune helping the Biden administration paralyze China? Or do you impose your own wishful thinking on netizens?
One. Is setting the "guardrail" "ease"?
Biden said in front of China's leaders that he would put a guardrail on Sino-US relations. What is a guardrail? Why guardrails? What does the guardrail do? Is the guardrail meaning détente?
(1) What is a guardrail?
If we notice that senior U.S. officials, including Biden, have reiterated more than once that "four noes and one no's," Blinken has described it as a "five no." I understand that this is the "guardrail". The United States has constantly made moves against China, and this period has frequently manifested itself in the Taiwan issue and the Xinjiang issue. Moreover, in addition to pursuing the "Indo-Pacific strategy" militarily, the United States has also done it in the economic field. At present, it is weaving an "Indo-Pacific economic framework" that encircles China, and wants to accurately decouple from China in the high-tech field and cut off the supply chain for China. Once the United States finds that China is about to get angry, it says "four noes and one unintentional" or "five noes" to China. These "five noes," according to the general expression of US politicians, are "not overly stimulating China." The United States repeatedly plays this trick with a teasing meaning to avoid confrontation or direct conflict with China.
(2) Why does the United States set up guardrails?
Most of the explanations in online media are that the United States is afraid of confrontation or direct conflict with China. Competition is okay, fierce competition is OK, but there can be no war with China, and the United States cannot afford the cost of Sino-US conflict. The "guardrail" is actually the "fence" that protects the United States, but not because the United States is afraid, but because the United States is not ready! What places are not ready? The United States has not yet succeeded in creating an "Asian Ukraine," the situation in Russia and Ukraine has not yet come to an end, and the various small circles created by the United States to contain China have not yet been effectively integrated.
(3) What is the role of the guardrail?
The United States uses guardrails to protect itself so that it does not come into conflict with China if it is not ready. Biden's idea is that on the American side of the guardrail, the United States is still going its own way, using the method of cutting sausages step by step, pushing the guardrail towards China. On the American side of the guardrail, the space in the United States is getting bigger and bigger; On the Chinese side of the guardrail, the space in China is getting smaller and smaller. When it is small enough, the guardrail in turn becomes a circle of encirclement for China. Once the time is ripe, dismantle the guardrail, face the conflict with China, and even fight hard.
(iv) Is the guardrail the meaning of détente?
The guardrail is "four noes unintentionally" or "five noes". Obviously, this guardrail does not mean that the United States is afraid of China, nor does it mean that Sino-US relations are relaxed, but it is just a confusing tactic for the United States to deal with opponents of similar strength, so that the opponents will have strategic misjudgments. Both China and the United States have said that China and the United States should prevent misjudgment and avoid conflicts. China and the United States have established a high-level dialogue mechanism to prevent miscalculation and avoid conflict. But for China, to regard the United States as "fear" or "détente" is a misjudgment -- to think that the United States really abides by the "five noes," that the United States will not really clash with China, and that the United States is really afraid of going to war with China. In fact, the true intention of the United States is that now is not the time for conflict!
(5) Yang Sha met with the United States to continue to promote the guardrail
Austin wanted to push the guardrail to the Chinese side at the incense meeting, but did not push, and encountered Wei Fenghe's "no matter what the war". Sullivan took the baton and continued to push, still not pushing. Yang Jiechi said: Poor handling of the Taiwan issue will have a subversive impact. The United States is not satisfied, will there be another meeting of heads of state after the Yangsha meeting? Will Biden personally push the guardrail? At present, it can only be said that it is possible. Biden wants to visit the Middle East to understand why Saudi Arabia is disobedient. I thought it seemed like China should do something at this point.
Two. What is really "easing"?
Chinese public opinion is looking forward to a détente in Sino-US relations, which is true in itself. But often misjudged, the United States to give a smiley face is very excited. This is not good! The United States often talks about "four noes and one unintentional" or "five noes," and sometimes emphasizes a certain "no" alone. If you have to see it as a détente, it's also a fake détente: a smiling face on the table, and a constant kicking under the table. Obviously, he sold all his weapons and equipment to Taiwan, and the congressmen also went to Taiwan, but they told China that the United States "does not support Taiwan independence." If you don't support Taiwan independence, what are your parliamentarians running to? Sightseeing? We do not seek to fight a "new Cold War" with China, do not seek to change the Chinese system, do not seek to oppose China through strengthening alliances, do not support "Taiwan independence," and have no intention of clashing with China. May I ask the U.S. government, which "no" U.S. has done it? Since there is no intention of conflict, what are the US fleets and planes doing when they run to the door of China to flaunt their might? Not only did he come by himself, but he also gathered a group of little brothers to come, was it to fight a group fight? So, the guardrail is fake! So when is it really easing?
(1) Tactical détente
First, the contradictions in the United States or other regions have become scorched and have to be slowed down on the Chinese side. For example, some radical slogans have not been mentioned for the time being, some irritating actions have not been done for the time being, and a few words of praise have been given to China. Anyway, China has a bunch of well-known people who don't need the United States to spend money, and they will definitely shake their lips and drum their tongues, and perhaps encourage China to give the United States a handle to solve the problems that the United States finds difficult.
(ii) Strategic "détente"
When the United States needed to adjust its overall national strategy, the measures originally taken against China were canceled, and new measures have not kept up. On the surface, sino-US relations will ease up a bit. For example, the United States summed up its experience in the process of encircling and suppressing Russia, and found that it is necessary to adjust its strategy toward China, and some containment methods against China are ineffective, and some can be cancelled (such as the illegal tariffs imposed by Trump). This cancellation also gives people the impression of relaxation.
(iii) True détente
That is, the United States has clearly abandoned its strategy of containing and suppressing China, such as unconditionally canceling illegal tariffs, canceling all illegal sanctions against China, stopping interference in China's internal affairs, stopping arms sales to Taiwan, stopping showing off force around China, and stopping pulling gangs and factions against China. At that time, it was understandable that someone cheered a few times.
Three. Chinese genuinely look forward to peace
Chinese not only sincerely look forward to détente, but also sincerely look forward to peace. Because China's national strategy is one: to make the Chinese people live a good life. To live a good life, we must seek development, and to seek development requires a peaceful environment. Therefore, Chinese really did not want to fight.
Do Americans also expect peace? No! As long as the United States is at peace with the United States, the United States does not want peace here in China. Do Americans want to fight? Think! The history of the United States is less than 250 years, but there are only 16 years without war! This is evidence of wanting to fight. Otherwise, what is the United States doing with such a large military force? Why are Americans so keen on war? Plunder! Americans started by plunder! America's prosperity is guaranteed by plunder! Plunder is the core interest of the United States! Because they want to fight, Americans have invented so many ways of playing and are becoming more and more intelligent.
For example, in dealing with Iraq, without saying a word, I directly do it myself. Deal with Russia, or find an agent to do it! You can be the "logistics minister and commander-in-chief" yourself. There is an idiom in China, "grass and trees are soldiers", which means that every grass and tree can use weapons. Biden put oil and gas, put the dollar, put the supply chain, put the Swit, put the public opinion, put the values, put the cats and dogs with weapons. It can be seen that Americans not only want to fight, but also like to fight in a different way. It is very inhumane to let Americans not fight, otherwise why should Americans live? Therefore, Chinese must realize that Americans really don't want peace, they really want to fight, and this is the way Americans live.
Chinese really want peace, really don't want to fight, and this is also the way Chinese survive. But Chinese understand dialectics, and not wanting to fight is not the same as being afraid of fighting, not being afraid of fighting but not being able to fight, and being afraid of fighting will really be beaten. Therefore, there is a "familiar saying" in China called "what is afraid of what is coming". China sincerely wants peace, and despite america's domineering, China also wants to live peacefully with it. Therefore, China's proposal of the "three principles" of Sino-US relations is sincere, not to amuse the United States.
The U.S. government does not believe that China sincerely hopes for peace, and the Americans' unbelief is also true, not pretended. The logic of American thinking is like that, people really don't pretend. Conversely, whenever Americans say they don't want to fight, that's what they pretend. Therefore, the Americans shout peace in their mouths and force China to fight in action. China has to get some nuclear weapons, some Dongfeng Express or something, otherwise, how can it accompany the Americans to play a war? To tell a joke, China's achievements today are forced out by the United States like to fight wars, right?
Four. Don't beg for peace
History has repeatedly told us that peace cannot be begged for. At present, the Relationship between China and the United States is not just a general trough, but a trough that needs to be managed to avoid conflict. According to the United States, it is a kind of competition, a fierce competition, a competition that may evolve into confrontation, conflict and even war at any time.
China truly wants peace, and only when peace can it develop and let the Chinese people live a good life. So, how can peace be achieved? First of all, we must ease the tense Sino-US relations and not be so fierce. How can it be alleviated? The Americans are well aware that Chinese is sincerely peaceful, and even some are eager to ease Sino-US relations, so they foolishly Chinese saying that as long as China recognizes the United States as the boss and listens to the United States everywhere, the United States will do whatever China wants China to do, and Sino-US relations will ease. Remember the popular praise of the "Alliance of the Abyss" on the Internet media? It is said that it was this alliance that brought nearly a hundred years of peace to the Song Dynasty. What does that mean? Even if China is fooled, it has also signed an alliance with the United States.
Has China's posture of begging for peace not been low enough since 1840? Is peace coming? No. Begging is exchanged for the iron hooves of imperialism, the Chinese people are devastated. In the end, it was through arduous struggle that the liberation of the Chinese people was won, and the dignity of the Chinese was lived.
That's history!
In the current situation, China also fantasizes about using some method to ease Sino-US relations, which is basically a fool's dream. Unless China's strength is two United States, and the United States feels that there is no point in containing China, it will be possible to learn to abide by the "three principles" of Sino-US relations: mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and mutual benefit and win-win results.
That's the reality!
Therefore, China must formulate a long-term "strategy toward the United States" within the framework of China's national strategy and effectively counter the "China strategy" of the United States to contain and suppress China. The effect of the countermeasure is manifested in:
First, the conditions for encircling and suppressing China have always been immature
Once this absolute superiority is formed, the United States will strike a devastating blow to China and completely solve China, the biggest obstacle on the road to US hegemony. China's countermeasure is to make it unable to mature the conditions for encircling and suppressing China and never form the absolute superiority of the United States over China. For example, what the United States most wants to do now is to create an "Asian Ukraine" and replicate the "Russian-Ukrainian model" in China. However, if China tries every means to make it impossible for the United States to "internationalize the Taiwan issue" and for the United States to integrate its small circle in Asia, it will be impossible for the United States to replicate the "Russian-Ukrainian model" in China. Of course, if Russia's special military operations achieve their goals, the United States will also lose some confidence, which will also curb its impulse to copy the "Russian-Ukrainian model" in China.
Second, a series of measures taken by the United States to encircle and suppress China should be used against the United States
The United States used the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict" to encourage allies to sanction Russia in all directions without dead ends and without boundaries, and the current result is that inflation in Europe and the United States remains high, energy shortages, food shortages, and supply chain disruptions. In other words, the United States vigorously encircled and suppressed Russia, and as a result, it was counter-encircled and suppressed, which is called anti-devouring! Trump launched a trade war, as a result of which more than 90% of the illegal tariffs he imposed were borne by the Americans, which is called anti-devouring! The United States is playing the Taiwan card wildly, and China has to think of making Taiwan a hot potato in the United States, which is called anti-phagocytosis! The United States is engaged in "free navigation" in the Taiwan Strait, and China has announced according to law that China will strengthen its control over the Taiwan Strait and seize us ships that have "passed through harmfully." This is called anti-devouring!
The "free navigation" of the United States is the first shot fired at China, and China's control of the Taiwan Strait is the second shot fired at the United States (China does not shoot the first shot)!
Third, developing strength is the last word
Speaking of a thousand ways and ten thousand, the reason why the United States is so arrogant to China is because China is not strong enough. If China is already the size of two United States, does the United States dare to be arrogant? However, China's current development is strongly blocked by the United States, and if it cannot be developed, its strength cannot be discussed. Therefore, China's national strategy must be attached to the "strategy toward the United States" and must learn to develop and grow in the encirclement, suppression, and obstruction of the United States. In fact, the 72 years of New China have come to this day step by step under the encirclement and suppression and obstruction of the United States (and the Soviet Union, which once became hegemonic). This road must continue! Decade? Twenty years? Thirty years? According to my conservative estimate, in another twenty years at most, China's comprehensive national strength will surely surpass that of the United States, and then it will be the rhythm of two, three, and four United States. At the moment, we also need to play tai chi. Therefore, Biden's "guardrail" we can also use in reverse, "four noes and one unintentional" we listen, do not believe it in our hearts.
Fourth, friendship still has to be talked about
As soon as this headline comes out, netizens may feel that how can it be a bit counterproductive? Aren't you against singing the pacificado?
Yes, I am against singing the yoke, against the servile ferocity that is expressed when singing the détente, the kind of impatience, the kind of surprise. I don't believe that the US government will really want to ease Sino-US relations, I only believe that US politicians are deliberately trying to kill China. But let us not forget that the United States is not just the United States of the big capital interest groups in the United States, not just the United States of American politicians, the United States is the United States of the American people. To the American people, we want to talk about friendship. The American people are also victims of the big capitalist interest groups in the United States, and they are on the same front as the Chinese people, but they don't quite understand it at the moment. This is the fundamental reason for talking about friendship!
Earlier, I used many of the term "Americans", which actually refers to "the people who control American capital and the politicians who serve them", just for the convenience of writing. Not the American people.
Talking about friendship is also an art of struggle against beauty. Just like the Sino-US table tennis team talked about friendship in those years, it achieved the strange effect of "small ball pushing big ball". To talk about friendship is to express to the people of the world and to the people of the United States Chinese people are peace-loving people, and the people of the Chinese not only look forward to sino-US relations, but also do so. For example, during the COVID-19 epidemic, despite Trump's bad performance, Chinese people still sent a large number of anti-epidemic materials to the American people. The emergence of today's situation in Sino-US relations is the fault of US politicians and Trump's fault! It's Biden's fault!
Talking about friendship is also a moral high ground. We cannot lose morally! That's why Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang led a team to talk about friendship in the United States. This kind of talk about friendship and that kind of cheering "détente" tone are two completely different things! Friendship can also curb the Wolf's ambitions toward China in the United States!
Five. epilogue
The United States is laying out encirclement and suppression of China, and China must be prepared to counter encirclement and suppression. This reminds me of the five counter-encirclement and suppression campaigns in the Central Soviet Region. For the newborn Chinese Workers' and Peasants' Red Army, it was a life-and-death battle. In the first four times, the Workers' and Peasants' Red Army won the victory against encirclement and suppression with fewer victories and more victories, and the fifth time because of strategic and tactical errors brought ruin to the Red Army, and it was only through the Long March that they finally broke through the encirclement and suppression and marched toward victory! At present, China still needs a long march in the new era. As long as the Chinese people closely unite around the Communist Party of China, they will surely win the final victory in rejuvenating the Chinese nation!
Go to the ghost with the kind of easing with the meaning of begging!
Note: The author of this article is Mu Lin, a core member of the "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", for the original work of this platform, in the new year, I wish everyone to join hands to defeat the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.