It's time to come after all.
On the 15th, Russia made an important decision, that is, to "significantly reduce the amount of natural gas provided to the EU", starting from the 16th, the natural gas transported to the EU through the "Nord Stream" pipeline will drop by 40%.
The reason given by Russia is quite far-fetched, that is, the so-called "German company did not ship the gas pump unit sent for repair to Russia in time". It is not difficult for clear-eyed people to see that this is just one of the reasons why Russia has "cut off" the EU, and for now, Putin is likely to give the EU a downward spiral.
The EU's response has been intriguing. Von der Leyen seems to have prepared for it, and before Putin "cuts off" the EU, von der Leyen rushed to the Middle East, mainly to find an energy supplier "enough to replace Russia", mainly natural gas. According to the layout of the EU, before 2027, the EU will completely stop importing Russian natural gas.
But at the moment, Putin obviously does not want to give the EU face, for Russia, instead of waiting for the energy card to fail to negotiate, it is better to give it a go and knock the EU in advance. At the end of the day, 40 percent of the EU's natural gas is supplied by Russia, and even if Germany, Italy, and Austria want to cut off Russia at this time, they will not be able to act immediately.
The result of Russia's and Europe's confrontation is naturally that Russia and Europe will lose both, the United States will blossom, and the forces of Qatar, Algeria, and Israel will reap the benefits. On the 14th, the EU signed a natural gas cooperation agreement with Israel and Egypt, which is also the first time that Israel has exported a large amount of natural gas to the EU.
Von der Leyen said the signing of this historic agreement is warmly welcomed, which will help maintain Europe's energy security.
What do you think? Let's talk about 3 superficial opinions.
1, the EU was somewhat happy too soon. The natural gas provided by Israel for the Eu mainly comes from the eastern Mediterranean, but in the Middle East, there are not many forces that want to seize the Mediterranean oil and gas fields, and whether Israel can stabilize its position is still unknown.
Importantly, the development of undersea oil and gas fields is not simple, the construction of natural gas pipelines is not simple, Israel's scientific and technological strength can not be underestimated, coupled with the help of the European Union, it should not be difficult to achieve this goal.
The problem is that it takes time to build natural gas pipelines, and the Middle East has always been a battleground, so who can ensure the safety of natural gas pipelines?
From this perspective, Israel did take the opportunity to cut off energy orders belonging to Russia, but that doesn't mean the EU and Israel can sit back and relax. At present, the main mode of transport in Israel can only transport LNG by transport ship.
2, there are still differences within the EU. At the EU special summit at the end of May, EU member states such as Germany and Austria resolutely opposed the cessation of imports of Russian gas, Hungary's attitude was more tough, and Orbán repeatedly stressed that the Hungarian economy was inseparable from Russian gas.
The choice of Von der Leyen and Michel is not supported by all EU member states, and it is difficult to stop importing Russian gas through the EU at this moment. Von der Leyen was full of confidence at this time, in large part because the cold winter had not yet arrived, and putin had not yet decided to partially "cut off" the EU.
In the next period, the EU is likely to pay a huge price, and Putin is obviously doing so.
3, the result of the tit-for-tat confrontation between Russia and Europe can only make the United States the biggest winner. With the United States not lifting sanctions on Iran and the new gas pipeline yet to begin, the EU is likely to be forced to buy high-priced natural gas from the United States, and with transportation costs, the EU is likely to erupt in protest marches.
The reason is simple: von der Leyen wants to show his sword to Russia, only by slapping the table and saying harsh words, but in the end it is thousands of EU people who pay for it. When the EU economy has suffered a heavy blow and the German people are frozen and shivering under the cold wind, how can von der Leyen give an account to the EU people?
Moreover, even if the EU can get enough natural gas, the high energy prices will be difficult for the EU people to accept.
Russia's two most deterrent cards are nuclear weapons and gas and oil. Putin has begun to move, and then it depends on how Macron and Scholz choose. Wait for the results.