Everyone wants to get better quickly, there's no doubt about that.
But where is the outlook for the global economy?
Just because of printing money or raising interest rates, can it solve the current economic problems?
In the context of these two years of large-scale water release, the answer has already told us that water release is not allowed!
The global economy faces two major hurdles:
First, the huge debt accumulated over the years;
The total global GDP is currently about $94.94 trillion, but the total global debt is more than $300 trillion, which is more than three times the amount of GDP integration.
That equates to more than $40,000 per person in debt for 7 billion people worldwide.
The sheer volume of debt has overwhelmed consumers and businesses, so much so that most developed countries are trapped in an interest-rate environment of zero and negative interest rates.
Let's take the United States.
After the 2008 financial crisis, there were two driving forces for economic growth in the United States, the first was that smartphones became the new growth driver, and the second was the vigorous development of financial markets.
However, by 2015 to 2018, smart phones have reached their peak, but new growth points in the global economy have not been found, and the United States has to cancel the pace of interest rate hikes, once again into the interest rate reduction channel, push the FINANCIAL market of the United States again, and maintain the development of the American economy.
The real economy in the United States has not received real growth at all.
After the outbreak, the United States had to launch an unprecedented unlimited amount of QE, which led to severe inflation and serious supply chain problems (future uncertainty increased, resulting in higher risks for businesses, either raising product prices or not producing!). ）。
The Fed bought a lot of junk debt to avoid business failure.
With the help of the Federal Reserve, the number of corporate failures in the United States has hit a record low.
But with interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, it means that the Fed has withdrawn, and these junk bonds will be difficult to find a receiver.
One of the world's largest fund companies, Bridgewater is betting that corporate bonds will be sold off by investors this year.
The media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that as early as April this year, the Bridgewater Fund used a basket of credit derivatives to short European and American corporate bonds. However, Greg Jensen, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater, declined to say how Bridgewater was short and the size of the shorts.
Second, the lack of new growth drivers:
After the 2008 financial crisis, the world benefited from the development of mobile Internet and smart phones, ushering in a wave of nearly a decade of development dividends. Of course, the biggest beneficiaries this time are China and the United States.
In 2015, the development of smart phones reached a bottleneck, in 2018, global smartphone shipments declined, down 4.1% year-on-year, and by the first quarter of 2022, global mobile phone shipments plummeted, with smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 295 million units, down more than 15% year-on-year.
The smart industry is no longer the driving force for the development of the world economy, and there is nothing new in the mobile Internet, and it is difficult to appear companies such as Tencent, Ali, Meituan, Toutiao, Google, Amazon, and Facebook.
In a word, they have become "traditional companies".
Under such circumstances, china's exports to foreign countries have not declined, is it not strange?
China rushed out on another track, because this track is the car.
In 2021, China surpassed South Korea to become the world's third-largest auto exporter, with auto exports exceeding 2 million units for the first time, and is expected to surpass Germany in 2012 to become the second largest auto exporter after Japan.
In May, China's automobile exports showed explosive growth.
According to the website of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on June 10, in May this year, domestic automobile exports were 245,000 units, an increase of 73% month-on-month and 62.3% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car exports were 196,000 units, an increase of 97.5% month-on-month and 69.7% year-on-year; Commercial vehicle exports were 49,000 units, up 15.8% sequentially and 38.2% year-on-year.
This also explains the latest foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 9th (Thursday).
China's total imports and exports in May were WORTH 537.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.1%. Among them, exports rose by 16.9%, far exceeding the median 8% expected by 28 economists interviewed by Reuters. The trade surplus reached $78.76 billion.
China can use cars, new energy sources, and domestic substitutions to buy some buffer time, but other countries have not had so much luck.
In Japan in particular, in April 2022, both domestic and foreign car sales fell, falling by 14% domestically and a staggering 38% in the Chinese market.
The automotive industry is the second largest industry in China after the real estate industry, and the largest industry in Japan.
Automobile production involves raw material industries such as steel, metallurgy, plastics, ceramics, and more than ten other industrial sectors such as electronics and electrical appliances.
At present, about 15% of the world's steel production, about 25% of aluminum production, about 50% of rubber production, about 10% of plastic production, and about 35% of oil production are used in the automotive industry.
Japan has also fallen behind significantly in new energy.
If Japan's automobiles go into decline, Japan will lose its economic pillar.
The automobile industry, Japan's largest industry, has been shut down, but is there anything left to see in Japan's economy?
No matter how much the Japanese government spends money to get the data right, investors have raised their feet to vote, and the yen has been in a decline against the dollar since March this year.
On the 9th, during the asian morning trading hours, the dollar exchange rate rose 0.2% against the yen to 134.56 yen against the dollar, which was only less than 1 yen away from the high of 135.15 in 2002.
Japan's debt problem is worse than that of the United States, reaching $11 trillion, more than 200 percent of GDP, and there is no source of revenue, and all this is wrong.
Originally, Japan had the opportunity to take the express train of China's development, but Japan did not want to become a "vassal state" of China's economy, and had to get involved with Lao Mei.
The Great Luo Immortals couldn't save Japan either!
And the United States?
Can't find the impetus for growth, can only release water, mess around the world, but can we find the driving force for growth?
It is impossible, and in the end, we have to face the problem of unpoweredness.