The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in its 107th day, the situation as a whole leans toward Russia, and the Ukrainian army is still struggling on the brink of collapse. At the same time, Europe and the United States continue to do everything in their power to create trouble for Russia.
At present, Europe and the United States not only continue to provide assistance to Ukraine in military weapons, but also continue to exert pressure on Russia in international public opinion, because the West claims that Russia did the grain export problem, but ignored its own sanctions. Russia has previously said that grain exports can be exported through Belarus, but Europe and the United States have imposed sanctions on transportation within Belarus.
In the Donbass region of Ukraine, although the West has repeatedly promoted the advance of the Russian army has encountered resistance, at present, most of The northern Donetsk seems to be in the hands of the Russian army.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov flew from Ankara to Armenia
Let's start with the dynamics on the Russian side. After his visit to Serbia was blocked, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov adjusted his plans to visit Turkey and Armenia instead. Lavrov's trip to Turkey was generally smooth, but there was a thrilling episode in Yerevan's trip.
When Lavrov's Il-96-300 plane landed at Armenia's Yerevan International Airport, Yerevan Airport received an anonymous bomb warning, and the Armenian Ministry of Emergency Situations dispatched K-9 search dogs to thoroughly inspect the airport before eliminating the bomb threat.
Prior to this, Lavrov had planned to visit Serbia, but Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro refused to open their airspace to Lavrov's special plane, and after fruitless communication, Lavrov was forced to cancel his plan to visit Serbia and visit Turkey and Armenia instead.
The anonymous bomb warning at Yerevan Airport is most likely to be a ghost behind the backs of Westerners. The small moves of the West are constant, and they do not necessarily really want to do anything, but they are nothing more than adding to Russia's blockage and making Russia feel difficult to move forward in terms of diplomacy.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and even before the outbreak, the West has begun to isolate Russia at the diplomatic level, but today, the isolation of the West has not had much impact on Russia, but the West is very contradictory. Although the West has repeatedly expelled Russian diplomats, when Russia also reacted, the Western countries said it was unacceptable. As for the United States, the United States hopes to keep communication with Russia smooth, but the United States is also very contradictory, on the one hand, isolating Russia, on the other hand, it is necessary to maintain contact, and eventually the contradictions between the two sides escalate, and Russia has banned senior American officials from entering Russia.
▲ Snake Island, which the Russian army seized at a certain cost, will certainly not be returned to Ukraine after the war
Although Russia has been besieged by the West, Putin has received three pieces of good news.
The first good news is that although Turkey's military operations in northern Syria have been opposed by Russia, Turkey has continued to support Russia in the recent international situation based on geopolitical interests. After Lavrov canceled his trip to Serbia because the three southeastern European countries refused to open their airspace, the Turkish media wrote an article warning balkan countries not to be instigated to hold high the banner of anti-Russia, otherwise the Balkan Peninsula may usher in a serious security crisis, and the Balkan crisis will undoubtedly trigger major turmoil in europe.
On the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey continues to support Russia and Ukraine to continue to resolve the issue through peaceful negotiations, and Turkey will also actively cooperate with Russia to resume Ukraine's grain exports in order to defuse the global food crisis caused by the sharp decline in Ukrainian grain exports. However, whether it can smoothly export grain also requires the cooperation of Ukraine, which has said more than once that Ukraine will come forward to clear mines.
After the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine will undoubtedly completely lose control of Snake Island
The second good news is that the Russian military is progressing smoothly on all fronts, and Russia's superiority at the military level is becoming more and more obvious. In the direction of the Black Sea, the Russian army continues to hold the control of Snake Island steadily, the Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet has transported two "Doyle" air defense missile systems to Snake Island through transport ships, and the air defense capability of Snake Island will be further strengthened, and the Ukrainian army has no possibility of retaking Snake Island through sneak attacks, unless the Russian army takes the initiative to retreat.
As far as the current situation is concerned, it is unlikely that Ukraine will return to Snake Island from Russia after the end of the war. In the future, Ukraine will be necked by Russia at any time at the level of sea passage, in the direction of the Sea of Azov, the Russian army has controlled almost all the outlets, and on Snake Island, it is conducive to the Blockade of Odessa by the Russian Navy.
▲ Battlefield situation map in the direction of Kherson before the press release
In the direction of Kherson, the Ukrainian army recently organized several large-scale counteroffensives, which to a certain extent blocked the Russian army's advance plan in Kherson Oblast. Overall, however, it was only a matter of time before the Russians took Kherson Oblast. In the direction of Slavyansk, after taking the key node Dividend Man, the Russian advance was significantly accelerated, and the vanguard force was already approaching outside Slavyansk. The Ukrainian army in the direction of Severodonitesk was already at the end of the crossbow, the signs of rout were obvious, the encirclement of the Russian army continued to shrink towards Lisichansk, and the pressure on the Ukrainian army in the east of Slavyansk would be increasing.
▲ The war in the direction of Slavyansk before the press release
The third good news is that the prospects for the integration of Kherson and Zaporozhye into Russia are very clear. Kherson and Zaporozhye are two of Ukraine's largest Russian-speaking populations, and immediately after the Russian military took control of Kherson and Zaporizhia, Russia immediately initiated preparations for the incorporation of the two oblasts into Russia.
At present, Russian telecom operators have issued a large number of Russian SIM cards in the local area, the Russian Ministry of the Interior has also started to simplify the procedures for the naturalization of the local Russian population into Russia, and the first batch of 500 Russian passports has been confirmed to issue Russian passports to local residents in the Melitopol region of Zaporozhye Oblast on June 12. According to earlier statistics, more than 86% of the residents of Zaporozhye Oblast want to obtain a Russian passport as soon as possible, and the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is speeding up this process. It is expected that after the end of the war, Zaporizhia region will be the first to be incorporated into Russia.
It is worth mentioning that one of the main reasons why the current Russian-Ukrainian peace talks cannot be restarted is the question of the ownership of Kherson and Zaporizhia after the end of the war. Russia has promised the Russian-speaking populations of the two states that It will "stay on the ground" after the war, while Kiev apparently cannot accept the reality of losing both southern states at the same time and has therefore refused to negotiate peace with Russia. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, Ukraine has actually lost the public opinion base of Zaporozhye and Kherson, Crimea has laid the template, and the rest is a matter of time.