Recently, South Korea has been "very active", not only joining the US-led "Indo-Pacific economic framework" on May 23, but also actively making statements, emphasizing that South Korea will play a "leading role". The organization, on the other hand, is more from the aspects of trade, supply chain, and industrial chain to "contain" the mainland.
Don't look at South Korea in front of the United States, a well-behaved baby, "dry son" look, but South Korea's careful liver is actually very nervous.
You know, Foreign Minister Wang Yi personally held a video meeting with South Korea's new foreign minister Park Zhen on May 16, reminding South Korea that "distant relatives are not as good as close neighbors", not to mention that the United States is not a "good oil lamp", do not want to usher in "wolf grandmother" at home.
South Korea is not unaware of this truth, but it still has a bit of luck, thinking that compared with China and the United States, China is still relatively gentle and easy to talk, while the United States is "smiling and hiding a knife" and "fierce in the heart". In addition, behind the South Korean chaebols, they are basically "kidnapped" by American capital, so South Korea's choice is somewhat unexpected.
However, Biden had a hard time getting on a plane, going out for a walk, and obviously did not intend to "do only one thing" to return home.
On May 24, Biden decided to strike iron while it was hot, directly on the site of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework", and held the "Quadrilateral Mechanism", the so-called "Four-Party Security Dialogue" between the United States, Japan, India and Australia.
The issues discussed do not need to be guessed, and China and Russia will definitely be on the list. But this time, it is worth talking about, that Biden's calculations have not been able to achieve their wishes. So, what "bad water" did Biden, the widow of the Cold War era, hide this time?
The object of Biden's calculation this time is no one else, it is South Korea.
South Korea, which has just signed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, is in a mood of excitement on the surface, but in fact it is carefully targeting China's reaction with its afterglow. As an "old fritter" Biden, don't look at the unstable legs and feet, and often "run the train", but as a politician, there are still some poisonous eyes. How could South Korea's "careful thinking" be able to conceal it from him?
In the field of the "Indo-Pacific economic framework", Biden quietly wants to "co-opt" South Korea into the "quadripartite security dialogue" and expand this mechanism into a "five-party mechanism".
You may ask, is South Korea so important? The answer is that it is valuable, but it is not very expensive, and at most it is the value of "playing soy sauce".
That being the case, why would Biden "calculate" South Korea and add him to the mechanism?
The reason is actually not difficult to understand, Japan is a bit unbearable. Russia's "energy counter-sanctions" against Japan have made Japan more and more overwhelmed. In addition, Japan has recently danced "too cheerfully" and really "disturbed the people", so From time to time, China and Russia send some "something" to the past, knock on the door, and remind Japan to "live in peace" and not to go too far, which makes Japan feel a little "weak" in its heart.
Therefore, whether it is the United States or Japan, we must find a "cannon fodder" to share the firepower. Looking at the surrounding countries, whether it is the Philippines or Singapore, they are all slippery "old loaches" and are not fooled at all.
So, the United States and The Sun had a pair of eyes, hey, rare spirit rhinoceros a little bit of passing," the candidate found." ”
Who? Korea.
At the same time, the United States and Japan still have a "voice" in each other's hearts that they have not spoken, that is, "the matter of pitting South Korea, the two countries, there is no pressure." ”
On the South Korean side, although sometimes it is "very middle two", it is actually not stupid.
In particular, the current president of South Korea, Yoon Seok-wook, whose personal history of struggle can be called a classic "history of fighting in the Korean workplace", has sent two South Korean presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye to prison together.
Even in the "Korean inspection system" with the highest "death rate" in the Korean officialdom, he dodged open guns and dark arrows all the way, passed the pass, and achieved the position of the chief prosecutor of South Korea. Such a character, the ability to "oppose reconnaissance" and "dress up as a pig and eat a tiger" is also pure fire.
Therefore, the old fox met the little fox, a skin smile meat does not smile, a mouth smile, eyes smile, heart sneer, the two are really smelly, a look of seeing each other and hating each other, and encountering the appearance of "the same kind". This scene, Sister Niu, I can't stand it a little.
Outside of Biden's words, South Korea "should go home", and the "four-party mechanism" has always reserved a place for South Korea, waiting for South Korea to join. South Korea did not answer the stubble, a pair of "little brother I Ho De How can, by the boss you so important, I am really not worthy of the position, I have to wait a few more years, study, study, experience and experience and then say." The subtext is, "If you want to pit Lao Tzu, Lao Tzu will not join, can you help me?" ”
Therefore, this "four-way security dialogue", Biden is very sorry, cleaned up the mood, and the "three brothers" of Japan, India and Australia boasted while preparing to join hands to "squeeze each other's bad water".
In fact, if South Korea can join. On the one hand, it can help the United States and Japan share the pressure facing China and Russia. On the other hand, South Korea can also play a leading role. Of course, this is the last thing we want to see.
In fact, the "Quartet Security Dialogue", similar to "Okus", is a military alliance and can also be regarded as the prototype of "Asian NATO". If South Korea can join, the "Asian Small NATO" may open a "wave of recruitment", and the Philippines and Singapore, among the ten ASEAN countries, will feel the "pressure mountain".
As for why South Korea is not "deceived", it is actually related to Foreign Minister Wang Yi's "beating".
South Korea knows that joining the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" has actually touched China's "bottom line", but it has not yet crushed or crossed the bottom line. If at this time, South Korea still wants to join the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue", it really means that South Korea has crossed the red line, and the consequences will be very serious.
South Korea's current situation is not as "confident" and "ambitious" as the outside world sees. Instead, South Korea is already in crisis.
First of all, South Korea's inflation rate has ushered in a "sharp rise", and South Korea's trade with China is the key to stabilizing South Korea's inflation rate.
Since January this year, South Korea's inflation rate has achieved three consecutive gains, from 3.6% in January to 4.8% in April. At present, this wave of rally has no signs of "convergence".
In this context, if there is a problem in Sino-South Korean relations, it will lead to a wave of Sino-South Korean trade. South Korea's inflation rate is likely to be "out of control." Moreover, South Korea knows very well in its heart that the United States does not take South Korea as "dry food" at all, and as for Japan on the side, it is even more eager for South Korea to "die early and overborn early." Looking left and right, who can you rely on? At the critical moment, we still have to "shout for help" to China.
Secondly, Japan's exchange rate has recently fallen into what kind of "bear-like", but the United States has turned a blind eye and allowed the Japanese exchange rate to "seek more blessings for itself".
According to data released by the Bank of Japan on May 23 based on Bank for International Settlements figures, the real effective exchange rate of the yen has fallen below a new 51-year low, staying at the "mark" of 60.9.
Former Japanese Vice Minister of Finance Yukihara British Capital even issued a solemn warning that if Japan does not take action, the yen exchange rate will fall from a "bear-like" to an "Akita inu" that can no longer laugh. At that time, 1 US dollar is likely to be directly exchanged for 150 yen. For Japan, which relies entirely on imports of energy and resources, it is tantamount to a "man-made disaster and natural disaster."
The reason why the yen exchange rate "fell again and again" is due to the "dry father" of the United States.
On the one hand, the European Union, the United Kingdom, And Japan, the traditional allies of the United States, have all followed in "sanctioning" Russia. The European Union secretly bought Russian oil and gas, and the British exchanged it for "ruble settlement". As for Japan, the hardest bar, directly at the G7 summit to the other member states present, "Although we in Japan are very dependent on energy, for the sake of the boss's cause, in order to keep pace with your sanctions against Russia, the younger brother and I are willing to insert knives in both ribs, not afraid of bloodshed, not afraid of sacrifice." ”
As a result, colleagues from G7 countries applauded and applauded Japan one after another: "Good looks, not afraid of death, come on, hurry." ”
As a result, Japan's exchange rate was in a false and flattering clamor, and blood pressure rose and fell.
On the other hand, the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes are also the reason for the sharp decline in the yen exchange rate.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in March and 50 basis points in May. From the "wind noise" circulating in the jianghu, the Fed is considering stepping on the "interest rate hike throttle" all the way to the end, not to kill those countries that follow the interest rate hike. Or in June and July, another 50 basis points will be raised. In August, I will take a breath, drink water, and in September, I will have another "75 basis points".
If the Fed is really so "mad", the yen exchange rate will not be far from falling to the point of crying and crying, kneeling and "selling".
In the face of such a "pit baby" of the United States, South Korea is actually also worried about the heart, worried that the United States has stepped on the "throttle" and killed the Japanese exchange rate, and incidentally sent the South Korean exchange rate to the operating table. At this moment, South Korea really does not dare to "bet" its life on the conscience of the United States.
Finally, and crucially, U.S. credit has collapsed, and the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield has so far become increasingly unfavorable to the United States. Therefore, South Korea also wants to wait for the bullets to fly for a while to see whether it is Europe and the United States or Russia that are finally "shot and fall to the ground". As for Ukraine, don't look at it, it is almost penetrated by bullets into a sieve. Therefore, before the results come out, South Korea is afraid that it is not ready to "add bets" anymore, and it is the most important thing to maintain stability at present, after all, the South Korean economy is too thin to withstand the toss.
In a word, South Korea is obviously made up its mind, and then it can follow the United States, but for those big things related to China and Russia, South Korea is afraid that it will be able to drag on, pretend to be stupid, and never easily "rise to the head."
Of course, this is South Korea's plan, as to whether the United States will give South Korea a "cup of poisoned wine" and a way to live, forcing South Korea to choose, that is a later story.
Just when South Korea failed to make the "Asian Small NATO" maintain the original scale of the "Quadripartite Security Dialogue" as the United States hoped, China intervened.
The United States, Japan, and South Korea are constantly engaged in movement in Asia, and the mud bodhisattva still has three points of anger, so should we really think that China will continue to get used to them? This time, The destination of China's shots is not the Americas or Africa, but the Pacific countries.
According to a diplomatic website on May 24, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be invited to visit eight countries, including Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, and Timor-Leste, from May 26 to June 4.
As soon as the news came out, the United States was surprised, and Australia was a little flustered. You know, in Australia's eyes, these countries belong to his "little brothers". In fact, the title of "little brother" is a bit exaggerated, in Australia's view, these countries are the "little brothers" who follow him.
Nowadays, 8 "little brothers" take the initiative to get close to China, which is to "reverse the sky", planning to put Australia's "boss" on the shelf? At this moment, the suspicious Australia, naturally eating is not fragrant, sleeping restlessly.
Why did China suddenly choose to visit eight Pacific countries?
Niu Jie believes that there are three reasons behind this.
First, with the signing of a "security agreement" between the mainland and the Solomon Islands and the acceptance of maritime investment from China, other Pacific countries have also been somewhat moved.
If these countries follow solomon Islands and sign a "security agreement" with China, it will mean that Australia's "voice" in the Pacific region will become precarious.
As for why China chose to "strike" at this time, a very important reason is that Australia's new prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has threatened to strengthen the alliance with the United States.
In other words, Australia's new prime minister has no intention of improving his attitude toward China, and China naturally does not have to consider Australia's feelings. With the help of visiting eight countries in the Pacific, it is also "knocking" Australia, so that they understand what is called "being arrogant, be careful of falling." ”
Secondly, the impact of the Ukrainian war on China is quite large, especially the "Belt and Road" that China has been promoting, combining the China-Europe express train and the "Pan-Asian Railway" to jointly build a land power network strategy across the three continents of Asia, Africa and Europe, because this war has been greatly impacted. Among them, the situation of the Eurasian train is a bit not optimistic.
Frankly speaking, Russia's fight in this battle has indeed made china "pit" not lightly, and this is indeed the truth. But Russia cannot be blamed entirely for this.
What to do?
Since things have happened, China's attitude has always been that complaining is useless, and what to do, do it.
Specifically, the Ukrainian issue still needs to be solved, and in the later stage, we will find a way to restore the land power strategy and readjust the China-Europe express train. At this stage, the development of our land-based transport network is mainly focused on helping Russia upgrade its transport infrastructure and logistics capabilities, as well as strengthening transport links in Central and Western Asia.
At the same time, we have also begun to turn to the "sea route", whether it is the Americas or the Pacific countries, in fact, in order to expand the "Belt and Road" coastal countries at the same time, try to open up the sea trade route, to give our development another alternative way out.
Simply put, the development of land power was disrupted by the war in Ukraine, and now it is changed to increase the development of "sea routes".
The last reason, the essence of which can be summed up in one word, is "Wei Wei saves Zhao".
What does that mean?
While returning to the Indo-Pacific, the United States is digging the "corner" of ASEAN. We can also "emulate" in a low-key manner, but do not play the banner of "wandering the Atlantic" and "making friends with the Pacific".
In other words, do things silently, be low-key, and leave no handle for "old beauty".
Since the United States wants to return to the Indo-Pacific to deal with us, then we will go to your home's "back garden" America to seek development, and at the same time go to the "Five Eyes" territory, and make friends with small Pacific countries, so that you can often "HR dig people's taste." ”
At this time, do you want to go back to the United States to "fight fires"?
This is Chinese wisdom.
You hit yours, I hit mine. You come to Asia to "arch the fire", I go to the Americas to develop the "Belt and Road", and I go to the Pacific countries to promote the signing of "security agreements" and "investment agreements".
In dealing with us, behind the United States stands the "Five Eyes Alliance," the European Union, japan, South Korea, and other "accomplices." However, China's good reputation in the third world countries is not a meal, interests and love are both at the same time, and there are also many "poor brothers" who have made friends.
What's more, Russia has also become a "good brother" with China back-to-back, and countries that have been suffering for a long time are eager to move. Today's United States has a dilemma of "the mountain rain is about to come and the wind is full of buildings, crushing you to death without paying for your life". What is missing now is a strong east wind that makes the "fire" burn completely.
What China and Russia have to do is to "come and go without being rude", the United States you "ignite" around my home, we "brothers" also go around your home to "pry the corner of the wall", to see the head, whether it is your "fire attack" is strong, or our brother's "civil engineering" is more powerful, the first step to bury the old United States you.
Finally, what Niu Jie wants to say is that the United Nations can no longer restrain the United States, and now only the two major powers that can restrain the United States are China and Russia. Other countries either do not have enough weight or their sovereignty is "incomplete", in short, there must be two main backbones to support the "anti-hegemonic" camp, otherwise they do not have the courage to stand against the United States.
But in this way, China and Russia are bound to bear tremendous pressure. Therefore, in the next international game, up to the country, down to everyone, will feel more or less pressure. But as long as you carry it, everything will be fine. We must have confidence not only in the country, but also in ourselves. For us to be able to get together, in this era full of variables, to forge ahead together, say: "Although oil is expensive, let's refuel together." ”