Image source @ Visual China
Affected by the epidemic and the ongoing supply chain crisis, the car market in April was dismal. According to the China Automobile Association, car sales in April fell by 50.6% year-on-year, and Weilai and Ideal sales were almost cut from the waist; Tesla only delivered more than 1,500 cars in April due to a sharp decline in production due to the shutdown of the Shanghai factory... At the same time, according to the new energy vehicle sales ranking, BYD has maintained a sustained strong growth, and the new energy vehicles of zero run, Changan, Ian, Nezha and other brands have a significant upward momentum.
Has the new energy market landscape changed? In the face of the situation of hundreds of companies, what is the future direction of "Wei Xiaoli" and Tesla? Today, Automotive Technology Observer invited Lin Jiongjia, editor-in-chief of Intelligent Relativity and Zhixing Driving, and Liu Na, senior editor of Tonstone Business Review, to talk about the new pattern of the new energy vehicle market.
Why is the sales volume of the new car-making forces cut off?
Titanium Media: The rapid decline in deliveries of new car-making forces in April confirms that the new car-making forces have a high degree of dependence on parts suppliers and their ability to resist risks is worse than that of traditional car companies. Once the supply chain price soars, or production is stopped and reduced, it will lead to greater volatility. Is this the main reason for the decline in sales in April?
Intelligent relativity: production suspension and production reduction is indeed the main reason. However, if we specifically compare the first echelon, the second echelon and traditional brands of new forces, we will still find that the sales performance of different car companies will vary greatly.
For example, zero-run cars, against the trend to take the new force list one, April delivery compared to March, a decrease of less than 10%; ideal, Weilai, Xiaopeng decreased by 62%, 49% and 42% respectively. In my opinion, there is such a big difference, on the one hand, because the positioning of the main model is different; on the other hand, because the factory location of different brands is different.
The best selling car with zero run is T03, less than 100,000 yuan, the dependence on high-tech accessories such as chips, radar, sensors and so on is relatively low, and the impact of upstream suppliers will be smaller. At this point, Zero Run is very similar to Nezha, and has a similar sales structure, so we will also find that Nezha's sales decline is not as much as "Wei Xiaoli".
The "Wei Xiaoli" mainly relies on the entire Yangtze River Delta supply chain enterprises, such as the ideal, more than 80% of the suppliers are distributed in the Yangtze River Delta region, some suppliers can not supply, the impact on the delivery capacity is self-evident.
Lin Jiongjia: At present, most of the new power car companies are sharing the industrial resources of the Yangtze River Delta to build factories to build supply chains, and from the perspective of a single April, the suspension of production and production reduction of suppliers under this round of epidemic is the direct reason for the decline in sales. However, the resilience adjustment of the supply chain is not an effect in a month, at present, the new forces of car companies are holding a lot of orders, waiting for the recovery of production capacity to release, just put in the annual cycle, or the overall upward trend, is to test whose supply chain resilience is more strengthened.
Now in addition to supplier selection, factory location also needs to be considered. In terms of multi-site layout, the experience of BYD and Tesla is worth referencing, BYD has 9 major production bases in China, tesla is a new factory in Shanghai and Berlin, Germany, all of which are dynamic capacity follow-up.
Now many industry practitioners propose to change the JIT (real-time management mode) of supply chain management to JIC (pre-production system model), prepare more inventory materials, parts resources and even workers, etc., to cope with emergencies, but this is a new set of cost accounting methods, for the original capital flow is tight on the new force car companies, but also need to be carefully chosen.
Liu Na: The suspension of production and production reduction caused by the epidemic is one of the important reasons, but another important reason is that the competitiveness of other traditional automobile companies in the industry in the field of new energy vehicles has been improved, resulting in the weakening of the first-mover advantage of new car-making forces.
There is no absolute king model Brand needs to return to the essential needs of users
Titanium Media: Judging from the top models of new energy vehicle sales in April, models within 100,000 yuan and 100,000-200,000 yuan are the main force in the volume, does it prove that the high-tech configuration in the market that relies on stacking is no longer popular? Technology decentralization and technology popularization make high-premium space models less attractive than they used to be? Or is it because of the epidemic that high-spenders are holding on to the sidelines?
Intelligent relativity: within 100,000 yuan, 100,000-200,000 yuan models have always been the main force of volume, after all, the price is relatively low, itself in line with the price demand range of most people buying cars, the same is true for the traditional fuel vehicle market. Due to the epidemic, there will be some reasons to curb the willingness of high-consumption people to buy. But for models of 200,000 or even more than 300,000 yuan, in April, it is more of a problem of insufficient delivery capacity, and the previous zero run and Nezha compared with "Wei Xiaoli" is a good example.
Lin Jiongjia: The car is a complex, which is prominent by the high-tech configuration of the pile, which does not mean that it is a very fragrant demand car. Most consumers will first consider the actual travel needs when buying new energy vehicles, and 100,000-200,000 family cars have always been the preferred price range for ordinary families, and there is no absolute king model in the market.
Regarding technology decentralization, this will be the general trend of this year, now the novel black technology, after a certain period of time automatically becomes the standard, especially the optional intelligent software services, technology needs data accumulation to enhance research and development, and only enough to take the volume of models, in order to help improve the next step of technology research and development, it is difficult to rely on high-end models alone.
The choice of high premium is more for the brand potential and unique value proposition, representing another identity of the owner, and the attraction still exists. The epidemic just happened to occur in the first-tier cities with strong consumption power, the overall purchasing power declined, and the sales of high-end cars will rise after this period.
Liu Na: The industry has begun to return to its essence, the essence is the real needs of users, and the core of user needs is security, which is cost-effective, rather than stacked high-tech configuration.
Don't talk about heroes in terms of sales
Titanium Media: With the full resumption of production and work in May and June, can "Wei Xiaoli" and Tesla still make great progress again? Consumers' brand loyalty to new energy vehicles is not high, will the top three new forces to build cars gradually be replaced by BYD, Nezha, Ean, zero run and so on?
Intelligent Relativity: At present, "Wei Xiaoli" and Tesla have resumed production, and I believe that June and July will make up for the losses in April. However, under the prevention and control of the epidemic, the impact of parts supply will continue, and car companies have always needed to deal with uncertainties in the industrial chain and supply chain, and the complete recovery of production capacity still needs a period of climbing.
As for whether the top three new forces will be replaced, I always think that it cannot be completely measured by the level of sales. Different from traditional fuel vehicles, in the era of "software-defined cars", there is not only one thing to make money by selling cars, but also word of mouth and brand recognition are not determined by sales.
Facing the future, the strength of intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit has become a factor for consumers to consider, which is inseparable from the relatively high hardware configuration and the investment of car companies in software, which are all costly.
Lin Jiongjia: As mentioned earlier, "Wei Xiaoli" and Tesla are holding a lot of orders, and when the production capacity is restored, sales will definitely rise, and it is currently in insufficient capacity rather than no market demand.
Back to the second question, short-term sales do not directly determine how far a car company can go. In addition to the policy side, under the market competition, the choice of new energy routes, energy supplementation systems, product force technology, etc. will have an impact, just as in the early days when BYD chose the new energy track, some car companies did not recognize it in the same period, but after so many years, BYD's order volume is far more than its peers.
"Intelligence" is the advantage of the new forces, but this is a competition of comprehensive strength, or to let the bullets fly and give some time and space for growth.
Liu Na: It is difficult for Wei Xiaoli to recreate the previous high-flying situation. I am optimistic about BYD's increasingly strong leadership advantage, Aeon is also relatively pragmatic, Nezha and zero run are not very optimistic, at present, it is only in the low-end market to get a place, it is difficult to make a difference in the mid-range market and above.
Technically do "subtraction" instead of "addition"
Titanium Media: New energy vehicles have always led the trend in technological innovation, what will be the next technical outlet? In the future, the application of new technologies, which are gimmicks, and which are the golden keys for car companies to open the market? For example, lidar, integrated chassis CTC, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit interconnection, etc.
Intelligent Relativity: I personally want to see that car companies will have new breakthroughs in intelligent driving technology, and I believe that the level of automatic driving capabilities will be the key to victory in the future. Because I have an absolute belief in pure vision solutions, I think it is cool to use cameras with powerful AI algorithms to achieve high-level autonomous driving. I believe there are people who have the same attitude as me.
Now too many new forces brainless pile hardware, individual car companies have also made a system solution that can upgrade the hardware, and the powerful parameter configuration makes a car look particularly powerful in automatic driving. But the ideal is very full of reality but bone feeling, data foundation, AI technology and so on are weaknesses.
In my opinion, what everyone should do should be "subtraction", not "addition": in a reasonable perception hardware solution, with massive data-driven and AI algorithms, it will bring an excellent driverless experience. Lidar and high-precision maps are enough to do a good job of "assisting" appropriately.
Lin Jiongjia: Now is the stage of technology blooming, and many new technology concepts are constantly emerging. However, the demand for travel scenes is not equal to the superposition of various black technologies, and the application of a technology is to be able to better improve the quality of human life, rather than making people drive to become fearful, ignoring the actual travel scene needs of people, and doing appropriate "subtraction" according to the actual travel group, rather than a strong superposition.
I think the black technology of the energy system is the weight of the car company to open the consumer market, and the endurance anxiety of travel is still the threshold that consumers can't get around, whether it is a 4680 battery or a sponge silicon anode chip battery, behind which is a new application of nickel technology, which is very critical.
The other is the current relatively hot intelligent chassis, chassis as the highlight of traditional fuel vehicles, in the era of intelligence is naturally also the focus of attention, through the improvement of the intelligent chassis, the ability of the car to learn self-learning, the imagination space brought by is also very large, but it is still very primary stage, not so fast can be achieved.
Liu Na: I think the decisive factor in the future is no longer a single technical outlet, but a systematic ability. Only manufacturers with balanced performance in the fields of technology, products, channels and after-sales service can win the future.
This article was first published on the Titanium Media APP, content planning and production | Long Houting, editor | Wang Zhenchao