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According to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 50 percent chance that global average temperatures will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels over the next five years, breaking through an important indicator of global warming and indicating that future temperatures will rise to extreme effects that will already have devastating ecosystems.
According to a study led by the Met Office, there is a 93% chance that the annual global near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in at least one year between 2022 and 2026, making it the hottest year on record. That figure will knock 2016 off the charts and approach the important threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, 189 countries agreed to limit long-term increases in average global temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The treaty also includes that participating members must reduce greenhouse gas emissions and track them as agreed. A recent U.N. report warned that the world is "off track" in meeting emissions targets, and new research shows that time is running out for these countries.
Although scientists claim that this temperature increase is only "temporary", the impact of the temperature increase is severe and irreversible. Maxx Dilley, director of the World Meteorological Organization's climate programme, said temperature is more than just a number, it is a red light warning of a series of serious consequences in the future.
"Over the next five northern hemisphere winters, temperatures in the Arctic could be three times the global average. When you think about what impact this might have on the polar and Greenland ice sheets, it will have an impact on a global scale. Because melting glaciers cause sea levels to rise and change current patterns. So this report is not just a number, but a major contributor to the variety of ecosystem changes around the world. ”
Back in 2015, the likelihood of a temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius was almost zero. The greenhouse effect of fossil fuels has accelerated the rise in global temperatures. Dr. Dilly said the temperature rise seen today was the result of years of greenhouse gas accumulation.
"The climate system doesn't change overnight. It is gradually changing, and we are already approaching the lower limit of change, which is 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels in which the Paris Agreement sought to control global warming. This suggests that as the climate system enters a new equilibrium state, and we are at the beginning of higher temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. "Our current climate is a product of what we did 20 or 30 years ago, and if we wait another 20 to 30 years and face a full-blown climate crisis, it will be too late to decide to reduce emissions." ”
(Editor: Kim Ri-wei)