(Dongbo News Agency/Guan Qiuyun) On May 10, the Philippine general election was finally settled. After completing the 92% vote count, filipino Federalist Party candidate Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos, the son of the late former President Ferdinand Marcos (hereinafter referred to as "Marcos Jr.") won the presidential election with 56.59% of the vote. However, the official election results have yet to be confirmed by the Philippine Election Commission, and after the final confirmation, Marcos Jr. will officially assume the presidency of the Philippines on June 30.
Although the "basic plan" of the election has been decided, the undercurrent of Philippine politics and the current thorny economic problems not only test Marcos's ability to govern, but also attract the gathering of public opinion: Will the new president, who calls for "unity and recovery", continue Duterte's "iron fist politics" style? How will he push the Philippine economy to accelerate its recovery from the devastation caused by the pandemic?
On May 10th, in the "ASEAN Flash Mob" online academic salon hosted by Dongbo Think Tank and co-organized by the ASEAN College of Guangxi University for Nationalities, two experts, Dr. Chen Bingxian, Ph.D. of school of international relations/Nanyang Research Institute of Xiamen University, research director of the Philippine Center of Guangxi University for Nationalities, senior researcher of Dongbo Think Tank, and Ye Zhou, president of the Philippine South Asia Foundation and foreign affairs commissioner of lumad KKK of the Indigenous Peoples Council of the Philippines, answered the above questions.
Marcos Jr., the son of former President Marcos, won the presidential election with 56.59% of the vote
Successor to the Duterte Government Line
Without any suspense, Marcos Jr. won an overwhelming victory in the presidential election vote with a sharp lead.
But throughout the campaign period, unlike a series of detailed "revitalization plans" launched by other candidates, Marcos Jr. did not put forward too many specific political views, but only used "unity" as a slogan, promising the Filipino people that they would create more jobs, attract more foreign investment, and improve agricultural facilities and digital infrastructure, while advocating an independent foreign policy in foreign affairs. But it's worth noting that he was the only major candidate to take the duterte administration's line.
Duterte, known as the "political strongman" and "the strongest president of the Philippines"
"Marcos Jr. will definitely continue some of Duterte's policies." Ye Zhou believes that the crux of the well-known poverty and backwardness of the Philippines is corruption and drugs. Duterte, known as the "political strongman", has embarked on a large-scale "war against drugs" and related policies to follow the drug crime to find out the problem of corruption are actually in the interests of the people. "The two new Philippine leaders have civilian plots and a desire to do things for the people, and the people are eager for a stable life and a prosperous economy, and from the perspective of public opinion, Marcos Jr. will naturally continue Duterte's line, which will also win him more voter support." Ye Zhou added.
In Chen Bingxian's view, the new president's important reason for continuing Duterte's administration is because he has seen the general trend of the Future of the Philippines, that is, the Filipinos need a strong president.
"Most Filipinos have a heroic plot, a good president is to work selflessly for the country and the people, not for their own selfish interests, power for personal gain. For the various existing social problems in the Philippines, a strong president may be 'necessary' and meet the expectations of the people. Chen Bingxian said, "Therefore, the 'continuation of Duterte's policy' proposed by Marcos in the election process, such as strictly eradicating drug chaos, opposing violent crimes, and carrying out 'large-scale construction and special construction', actually won him a wide public favor." ”
Marcos Jr. was the only major candidate to express his intention to follow duterte's line
But Chen Bingxian also pointed out that "there will still be changes" and that Marcos Jr. will not fully accept Duterte's political legacy. He said that although the general direction of the overall continuation will not change, but taking into account the opinions of domestic opposition and activists, as well as the feedback of the West and the United States, and after Duterte's "iron fist governance", the social problems of the Philippines have been improved, so Marcos Jr. may not be as tough as Duterte in handling domestic issues, and is more inclined to a moderate and neutral political style, that is, more "considering the overall situation".
Promoting economic recovery is the "main play"
During the election, many people told the media that their biggest concern was how the new president would restore the economy, improve people's livelihood and create more jobs than the competition in the political arena. This is not difficult to understand, under the epidemic, the Philippine economy has been hit by multiple shocks. According to data from the think tank ING Bank, since the beginning of 2022, the Philippine trade deficit has widened to $4.9 billion, coupled with the impact of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 3% against the US dollar, 12 trillion national debt has reached an all-time high, and rising prices have made many people cry.
Under the epidemic, the Philippine economy has been affected by multiple shocks, and improving people's livelihood has become one of the "important test questions" of Marcos
Therefore, "economic recovery" is the primary "test question" that Max Jr. faced after taking office. Chen Bingxian predicted that The economic policy of Marcos May make infrastructure and the revitalization of agriculture a priority.
"First, he will continue to promote Duterte's 'large-scale construction and special construction' infrastructure construction plan, through strengthening infrastructure construction to clear the obstacles to the economic development of the Philippines, and on this basis to make small adjustments and innovations; second, through the development of agriculture to reduce the cost of people's living materials, alleviate the living pressure of the people at the bottom, but also to ensure that domestic farmers are affected by the international market." Because the Philippines has a low level of agricultural technology, and the annual import volume of rice is large, the price of rice is high, if it is not regulated, it may cause trouble to farmers and the people. Chen Bingxian explained.
When it comes to the Philippines' economic development policy, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is also of great concern, because this policy will provide the Philippines with unparalleled opportunities, potential and markets, and provide excellent opportunities for the Philippines to enter the Chinese market and contact Chinese capital. However, at present, only the Philippines and Indonesia are the only member countries in force of RCEP.
RCEP ensures that cheaper raw materials and intermediate goods enter the market and flow into the hands of exporters and local industries, pictured in the Philippine electronics factory
So what will happen to the fate of the RCEP after the new president takes office?
Chen Bingxian analyzed that after Marcos took office, he will actively integrate the opinions of all parties, further accelerate the ratification of RCEP by Congress in the Philippines, and will propose a series of adaptation plans for the agreement.
Chen Bingxian stressed: "The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry believes that the trade development of other member countries after the RCEP takes effect is good for all to see, and official estimates, by 2030, the Philippines' GDP will be increased by 0.9% due to the substantial increase of RCEP, reducing the number of poor people by 5%; the Philippine domestic think tank also believes that although the RCEP may have an impact on traditional industries such as agriculture and manufacturing, if the opportunities behind the challenges can be used to open the market to attract industry investment and promote the export of related trade products. Then forcing industrial upgrading, it is a good idea in the long run. ”
Given that Marcos Jr.'s economic team is not yet fully formed, we still do not know its specific policies, but it is certain that the general direction of the economic helmsman remains stable, and promoting economic recovery is still the top priority of the new president's mission. As Chen Bingxian said: "Everything that meets the needs of the Philippine social development and the expectations of the people is the starting point of The Little Marcos to formulate relevant policies." ”