Source: People's Daily
The staff of the Meteorological Bureau of Suileng County, Suihua City, Heilongjiang Province, maintain the equipment of the microclimate observation base between the farmlands. Photo by Du Rongbo (file photo)
Wind energy and solar weather forecasting is a basic business of meteorological services, escorting the development of new energy in the country. The picture shows the Pangu Ridge Wind Farm in Qingxi Township, Huichang County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. Photo by Zhu Haipeng (People's Vision)
Editor's note: Today, urban and rural residents across the country can obtain location-based 24-hour hour-by-hour weather forecasts, temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed and other meteorological live monitoring products and short-term proximity forecasts at a glance; customized meteorological early warning information services of about 1.4 million couriers and 1.5 million agricultural mechanics; ship navigation, marine fisheries, etc. can use global distant-water meteorological navigation with independent technology; power grid enterprises, energy departments can receive customized wind energy, solar forecast products...
Meteorological services have been integrated into production and life and are becoming more and more indispensable. Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the mainland has vigorously promoted meteorological modernization, and meteorological services have increasingly adapted to the needs of the new era. Meteorological services are no longer just reminders of weather, cold and warm, but the use of artificial intelligence, mobile communications, Internet of Things and other new generation of information technology to provide more refined, professional and diversified services for the general public and all walks of life, serving disaster prevention and mitigation, rural revitalization, ecological civilization construction, ensuring life safety, production and development, affluent life, good ecology, and helping high-quality economic and social development.
Fine service rural revitalization
In the past, growing grain was to rely on the sky to eat, and now it is "watching the sky management"
The seedlings have broken through the soil and are growing happily. In Jiaxin Town, Yanshou County, Harbin City, Heilongjiang, the seedling greenhouse of Xinhe Organic Rice Professional Cooperative is warm and melting.
After more than 10 greenhouses were warmed and insulated, organic rice seeds were sown 10 to 15 days earlier than in previous years, and the seedlings that grew were planted in 12,000 mu of mu mu of mulaced fields. There are more than 10 meteorological monitoring equipment in the field, which record 16 kinds of meteorological element data such as soil temperature, soil moisture, light intensity and rainfall around the clock. The data is transmitted to the smart meteorological platform through the Internet of Things, and displayed in real time on the big screen of the cooperative and the mobile phone of Chairman Yao Hongliang.
"The smart meteorological platform not only warns of blizzards, hail and other disastrous weather in advance, but also prompts information such as pests and diseases, from seedling raising, seedling planting, field management to processing and storage, to achieve full monitoring and can be viewed at any time." Yao Hongliang told reporters that this series of digitized, film and television records form a traceable rice information database, which is integrated into an exclusive two-dimensional code together with climate quality evaluation information, providing support for the certification of organic rice in the cooperative. Traceable organic rice is even more popular in the market.
"In the past, grain was grown by relying on the sky to eat, but now it is 'watching the sky to manage.'" Yao Hongliang said that since the use of smart meteorological systems in 2015, the impact of catastrophic weather on food production has been greatly reduced, the quality of rice production has been controlled throughout the process, and agriculture has accelerated towards digitalization and modernization.
Heilongjiang is a "big granary", and agricultural production is inseparable from the fine services provided by the meteorological department. According to the characteristics of agricultural production in different regions, the meteorological department of Heilongjiang Province re-divided the accumulated temperate zone of the province and carried out refined zoning for the main varieties. Agricultural meteorological technicians often go to the field to carry out "one-to-one" personalized services, using mobile phone text messages, "Heilongjiang meteorological" APP, electronic display screens, WeChat and other methods to basically achieve full coverage of "through" services for new agricultural business entities.
Agriculture and meteorology have been inseparable since ancient times. Nowadays, agricultural meteorological services have become the largest, most technologically mature and most standardized business in mainland meteorological undertakings. The business platform with agro-meteorological indicators, crop growth simulation, satellite remote sensing, big data and other technologies as the core is gradually becoming an important force in the high-quality development of meteorological services and agriculture, providing strong scientific and technological support in agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, ensuring national food security, and agricultural response to climate change. At present, the country has basically formed a national, provincial, municipal, county and township five-level service pattern, and the China Meteorological Administration and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have jointly created 10 characteristic agricultural meteorological centers. Meteorological departments in various localities have carried out targeted agricultural meteorological services according to local conditions.
"The long-awaited 'head water' has finally arrived!" In Linkou Village, Shicun Town, Suzhou City, Anhui Province, Kong Xiangzhi, head of Qiude Family Farm, was overjoyed. There has been no rain for many consecutive days, and the farmland is dry. The Anhui meteorological department predicted the precipitation process in advance and carried out artificial rain increase operations, and the drought was lifted.
"Thanks to the meteorological service, our vegetables here are of high standard and good quality, and they are very popular with customers." Han Jinzhao, deputy general manager of Henan Fenghui Shengshi Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., said. In Henan Province, the meteorological department has established an agricultural "digital archive" to provide scientific reference and improve the quality of vegetable planting, and high-quality vegetables are sold at home and abroad.
In Hubei Province, the meteorological department carries out special agricultural meteorological services, starting from "one county, one industry, one village and one product", building 32 kinds of agricultural meteorological service indicators, providing 24 kinds of service products in six categories such as agricultural weather forecasting, and realizing customized meteorological services for 9 crops.
The capacity of rural disaster prevention and mitigation has been continuously enhanced. At present, 57,000 regional automatic weather stations cover 95.9% of the country's townships; the short-term forecast and early warning business of catastrophic weather is refined to townships; and 356,000 small and medium-sized rivers, 590,000 mountain flood ditches, 65,000 mudslide points, and 280,000 landslide hidden danger points have completed the risk survey.
"Meteorological science and technology elements are integrated into rural revitalization and enter the fields, which plays a role in helping people to seek benefits and avoid harms, and ensures income growth and safety." Yang Jiguo, deputy chief engineer of the early warning and release room of the Public Meteorological Service Center of the China Meteorological Administration, said.
The continent's climate is complex and diverse, and some major meteorological disasters will have a serious impact on agricultural production. In plateaus, mountainous areas and desert areas, meteorological disasters such as drought, heavy rain and flooding occur frequently, and it is difficult to monitor, forecast and warn. "In the future, it is also necessary to continue to strengthen the construction of rural meteorological disaster defense system and agricultural meteorological service system to help rural revitalization." Yang Jiguo said.
Improve the level of public services
Early is the premise, fast is the key, quasi is fundamental
"Looking at the pollen concentration forecast every day, I have a good idea. Hide when you are high, and go out for activities when you are low. In the spring, Ms. Shen, a Beijing resident who is allergic to pollen, pays close attention to pollen concentration forecast information every day.
"In the past, nose and eye allergies were used only when they could not be controlled, but this year I paid attention to the 'Meteorological Beijing' WeChat public account, which can be warned before the pollen concentration rises, and can be used in advance, which can basically control allergies and not attack." A netizen left a message of thanks on the WeChat public account of the Beijing Meteorological Bureau.
Beijing Meteorological Bureau and Tongren Hospital have cooperated for a long time to set up pollen observation points in various districts of the city, and the pollen observation and grading forecast results have been released through the "Meteorological Beijing", "Pollen Monitoring and Forecasting" WeChat public account and the "Pollen Health Treasure" Mini Program, which have been widely praised.
How is pollen concentration forecast made?
"First of all, the total pollen concentration and related meteorological data data in Beijing and the meteorological impact factor index system of gas-sensing pollen plants were established. On this basis, the algorithm is used to establish a daily pollen concentration level forecast model for the next 3 days, with an accuracy rate of more than 70%. Ye Caihua, deputy director of the Beijing Meteorological Service Center, told reporters.
"People are paying more and more attention to health, and meteorology and health are closely related, so we continue to research and develop health-related weather forecasting products to serve people's needs more accurately and precisely." Liu Yanxiang, chief researcher of the Public Meteorological Service Center of the China Meteorological Administration, said.
Nowadays, weather forecasting is not only to forecast the weather, but also to release various living meteorological indices to provide intimate services for the public. The meteorological department introduces mathematical statistical methods to calculate various meteorological elements such as air pressure, temperature, humidity, etc., and finally forms a meteorological forecast life index. These indices are a further deepening of weather forecasting. At present, the meteorological index released by the meteorological departments in various places covers more and more wide areas, and dozens of indexes such as colds, dressing, ultraviolet rays, sunscreen, wind chills, drying, car washing, and morning exercise help people reasonably arrange production and life.
In recent years, public services such as meteorological forecasting and early warning for the whole society have been continuously strengthened. The mainland is one of the countries in the world that are seriously affected by meteorological disasters. Meteorological forecasting and early warning is the first line of defense for disaster prevention and mitigation, and joint response with relevant departments can minimize the impact of meteorological disasters and continuously improve the ability and resilience of economic and social development to resist meteorological disasters.
In June 2020, in Baojing County, Hunan Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, a torrential rain poured down. An hour and a half later, the red warning level of heavy rain has been reached. Zhou Yanzhou, director of the Baojing County Meteorological Observatory, immediately issued a warning to townships and towns in risk areas. After receiving the information, village cadres and meteorological information officers in Nadong Village, Qianling Town, quickly helped the villagers to transfer. Luo Jinghua's family of five and four villagers had just moved to safety when they heard a loud noise, and boulders mixed with mud and vegetation rushed into Luo Jinghua's home.
"Fortunately, the warning was timely, and if it was a few minutes late, something big would have happened." Luo Jinghua said with some trepidation.
Giving play to the role of the "news tree" and "starting gun" of meteorological forecasting and early warning is the premise, fast is the key, and quasi-is fundamental. The mainland's meteorological forecasting and early warning capabilities have been continuously enhanced. At present, the accuracy of the rainstorm warning is 89%, the 24-hour error of the typhoon path forecast is reduced to 70 kilometers, and the strong convective weather warning can be issued 38 minutes in advance, which is 16 minutes shorter than the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".
"Accurate retribution" should also be "received" by all sectors of society. In 2015, the China Meteorological Administration established the National Early Warning Information Release Center, built a multi-departmental shared national emergency early warning information release system and terminal service matrix, and formed an early warning release business system covering national, provincial, prefectural and county levels. By the end of 2021, more than 2 million pieces of early warning information will be issued, of which meteorological disaster early warning information accounts for 96%. Statistics show that the proportion of economic losses caused by meteorological disasters in the mainland to GDP every year shows a downward trend year by year, and the benefits and role of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation are constantly prominent.
Contribute to the achievement of the "double carbon" goal
Further improve the degree of refinement, optimize forecast results, and serve the development of new energy
On March 4, the opening day of the 2022 Beijing Winter Paralympic Games, the maximum power generation of new energy in North China Power Grid reached 104 million kilowatts, accounting for 48% of the total load of North China Power Grid. North China Power Grid has become the country's first regional power grid with new energy power generation exceeding the 100 million kilowatt mark, and through the Zhangbei flexible DC power grid with the highest voltage level and the largest transmission capacity in the world, it converts random and fluctuating wind and photovoltaic power generation into stable output clean power, providing 100% green power supply for the venues of the Beijing Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games.
Achieving 100% green power supply is not simple. "Wind energy and solar energy have significant volatility and randomness, so stable supply depends on meteorological services to ensure the safe and efficient consumption of new energy power generation." Liu Yu, senior engineer of the North China Branch of the State Grid, introduced.
"The most critical thing is to make advance research and judgment, fully consider the impact of complex weather, and only by accurately predicting the power generation power of each wind farm and solar power station in advance can we reasonably arrange the operation mode of the power grid and maximize the consumption of clean energy electricity." Liu Yu explained that this requires accurate prediction of key new energy power generation meteorological elements such as wind speed and irradiance, and traditional weather forecasting cannot meet the demand.
In December 2021, the Wind Energy and Solar Energy Center of the China Meteorological Administration released the national wind and photovoltaic power generation meteorological condition forecast products, and the North China Branch of the State Grid put forward the service demand. Since then, the North China Branch of the State Grid has received "tailor-made" new energy power meteorological forecast briefings and short-term wind and solar energy forecast products every day, and meteorological experts will also consult closely with them when encountering major high-impact weather events.
At present, this forecast product has covered the meteorological elements required for wind and photovoltaic power generation, including temperature, humidity, wind field at different heights of the atmospheric boundary layer, as well as short-wave radiation reaching the surface, ground pressure, precipitation, etc. The temporal resolution is as fine as 15 minutes, the spatial resolution is 9 km, and the forecast time is 126 hours.
Recently, the China Meteorological Administration officially issued this short-term forecast product for wind energy and solar energy to the national meteorological department, and the local meteorological departments combined with actual needs to provide forecast products for the energy and power sectors.
The mainland has put forward the goal of achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, and is vigorously developing and utilizing clean energy such as wind energy and solar energy. Statistics from the National Energy Administration show that in 2021, the country's annual new energy power generation will exceed the 1 trillion kWh mark for the first time. This year, the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total social electricity consumption will increase to about 12.2%.
New energy power generation such as wind energy and solar energy puts forward new requirements for the accuracy of meteorological forecast forecasting, for example, to carry out customized forecast push of energy meteorology, make scientific assessment of the design, equipment selection and installation of power farms in complex terrain, strengthen early warning of possible extreme weather, evaluate and determine the priority of resource development in various places, and carry out climate feasibility demonstration.
During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the meteorological department provided forecasting and early warning and other meteorological support services for more than 2,000 wind farms and solar farms. In October last year, the China Meteorological Administration issued the Action Plan for Improving the Meteorological Capability of Wind and Solar Energy Resources (2021-2025), proposing that by 2025, the core scientific and technological support capabilities and new technology application capabilities of the wind energy and solar meteorological business will be greatly improved, and the business system and service layout with the goal of "precise monitoring, accurate forecasting and fine service" will be initially built.
"Short-term forecast products for wind energy and solar energy have become the basic business of the China Meteorological Administration, and have carried out assessment and demonstration of resources and potential in many places to provide services for local and energy departments." In the future, we will further improve the degree of refinement, optimize the forecast results, and serve the development of new energy. Ye Dong, senior engineer of the Wind Energy and Solar Energy Center of the Public Meteorological Service Center of the China Meteorological Administration, said.
Accelerate the promotion of meteorological modernization (reporter's note)
Meteorological undertakings are scientific and technological, basic and leading social welfare undertakings, and meteorological work is related to life safety, production and development, affluent life and good ecology. Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all relevant departments in various regions have made unremitting efforts to promote the remarkable achievements in the development of meteorological undertakings on the mainland, the meteorological guarantee for economic and social development and the construction of ecological civilization have become more powerful, and the overall strength of meteorological services has approached the world's advanced level.
"Frogs cry, heavy rain to" "Sunset red clouds rise, the coming day is sunny"... Since ancient times, these catchy proverbs have helped people understand the weather and climate and better arrange production and life. In today's increasingly developed science and technology, relying on sophisticated monitoring equipment, accurate numerical algorithms, and fine service guarantees, we are changing from "looking at the sky" to "using the sky", and are more good at seeking advantages and avoiding harms in production and life, effectively coping with weather and climate change, and making full use of climate resources. This is due to the continuous promotion of meteorological modernization, the continuous improvement of meteorological service levels, and the continuous satisfaction of the needs of high-quality economic and social development.
At the same time, we must also see that in the context of global warming, the number of extreme weather and climate events on the mainland has increased, the requirements for overall development and security to prevent major risks of meteorological disasters are getting higher and higher, the sensitivity and relevance of economic and social development to meteorological impacts are getting stronger and stronger, the demand for meteorological services in people's lives is becoming more and more refined, and the requirements for meteorological guarantees for the construction of ecological civilization are becoming more and more urgent. The demand of the people and all walks of life for meteorological service guarantee has shifted from "whether there is any" to "good or bad" and "strong or not". This puts forward higher requirements for further accelerating the modernization of meteorology and improving the ability and level of meteorological service guarantee. Meteorological service guarantee should pay more attention to understanding the needs of all aspects, and pay more attention to the specialization, refinement and pertinence of products.
Adapting to the new situation and new requirements, solidly promoting the high-quality development of meteorological undertakings, and improving the ability of meteorological all-round services to ensure national economic and social development, disaster prevention and mitigation, and improvement of people's livelihood will promote higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable and safer development, and continuously enhance the people's sense of gain, happiness and security. (Reporter Li Hongmei)
Typography: Wang Zheping
People's Daily (2022-05-05, 17th edition)