In order to ensure national security, Putin has to bear a huge price to knock Ukraine, and now the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not over, Russia's western neighbor Finland is about to join NATO, and Putin is once again facing a difficult choice. According to the "Reference News" reported on May 2, an anonymous source told the media that the Finnish government will officially apply to join NATO on May 12. Finnish media announced that this decision will be "in two steps" on the 12th, first by Finnish President Niinistö announced "consent" to Finland's accession to NATO, and then the Finnish parliament "approved" the country's application to join NATO.
Why didn't President Niinistö directly represent the country and apply to NATO to engage in a "two-step approach"? The reason is very simple, Finland's application to join NATO will definitely annoy Russia, and no one can be sure of how the fighting people will react, but whether it is armed conflict or military pressure, Finland will "pay the price" for its choice, which is certain. In such a situation, Niinistö's "two-step" strategy is very necessary, he only "agrees" to join NATO, and it is not he who "applies" and "approves" to join NATO, but the Finnish parliament.
So, if Finland "gets into trouble" by applying to join NATO, the president cannot be blamed for this, Niinistö through this "two-step" strategy, to minimize his own risk, as for Finland's risk, it is embarrassing, by 5.5 million Finns collectively bear. It can be seen from here that the Finnish government is very clear about the consequences of applying for NATO, and should have made the "worst" plan, in addition to the "two steps", the reason for releasing the news through "anonymous people" is also to see Russia's reaction, which shows that Finland is "uneasy".
Knowing that joining NATO could "set itself on fire", why would Finland risk "gambling"? On the one hand, as a neighbor of Russia, Finland has long lacked a "sense of security", and it is not a day or two to join NATO, but the domestic public opinion cannot be consistent for a long time, and recently the Finnish people have suddenly "figured it out" and supported joining NATO. On February 24, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, and on February 28, Finland conducted a poll, 53% of the Finnish people believe that "nato should join", Niinistö said, which gives Finland a "deep public opinion base" on the issue of joining NATO.
To put it bluntly, Putin sent troops to Ukraine, the cruel war has "scared" the Finns, they feel that "long pain is not as good as short pain", rather than worrying about Russia's "invasion", it is better to "quickly cut the mess" to join NATO, as long as it joins NATO, there are 30 countries as a backer, Finland will be "safe". Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin also said that Russia's military operations "undermined the security environment for the whole of Europe" and that "war has returned to real life in Europe" and that Finland should "seriously consider" an alliance. This proves once again our thesis that the United States stimulates the Russian bear, the Russian bear goes mad, and the European countries drill into The arms of Uncle Sam.
On the other hand, countries around the world, including Russia and Putin himself, did not expect that the Russian army would fight so "across" in Ukraine, especially in the early stage of the military operation, the Russian army suffered heavy losses, losing soldiers and generals, and losing as many as 10 generals, it is rumored that even the chief of the Russian general staff, Gerasimov, was almost "shot" by the Ukrainian army. In addition, the guided-missile cruiser Moscow, named after the capital, was sunk and the captain was killed, while earlier the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet was also killed during the siege of Mariupol. It can be said that the Russian army "played abnormally" and let Finland "take chances".
If Putin's military operations in Ukraine are "smooth sailing", the Russian army shows courage, beats the Ukrainian army to lose its armor, and seizes a number of large cities in succession, to tell the truth, even if it is deeply stimulated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Finland does not dare to apply for "joining NATO" when Russia is in a "good state", because the Russian bear "backhand is a slap", and Finland "has to peel off its skin without dying". Other countries that are trying to join NATO will also "tremble" in front of the Russian bear, "walking on their knees, do not dare to look up", because Putin has "killed the chicken to show the monkey", and it is still a bloody "black chicken".
However, contrary to expectations, the Russian army not only failed to play the momentum of the Soviet Red Army, on the contrary, it was also deeply involved in the war with Ukraine, Russia's international prestige "plummeted", and the deterrent power of the fighting nation was also "plummeting", so Finland decided to "gamble", betting that Putin "did not dare to go to war". I have to say that this time Finland is likely to "gamble to win", the reason is very simple, the Russian military in the conflict performance "pulled across", blitzkrieg has become a protracted war, war of attrition, Russia is subject to sanctions, the pressure is high, putin "re-open the copy" The possibility is very low, because Russia's hardware level "does not support more open".
Finland is located in the west of Russia, and Estonia across the Gulf of Finland far away, Estonia is already a NATO member, once Finland joins NATO, then the Gulf of Finland will become "NATO Bay", Russia will completely lose the sea from St. Petersburg to the Baltic Sea, Finland and Estonia will be like a vise, dead choking the throat of the fighting nation in the west, this Kaliningrad will really become a Russian "enclave", not only the land is isolated from Russia, even the "sea route" is not passable. It can be said that Finland's accession to NATO will be the biggest geopolitical defeat suffered by Russia since the beginning of the war.
Some people may think that since Finland's accession to NATO, the consequences for Russia are so serious, can Putin not intervene? If it had been before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, putin would have definitely intervened, but now, to be honest, Putin is already "powerless". Of course, according to a report by Russia Today tv in early April, Moscow warned that if Finland joined NATO, there would be "military and political consequences", and Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, also said that in response, Russia had to increase its military strength in the west and no longer guarantee that the Baltic Sea would be "nuclear-free".
In fact, according to the Phoenix Satellite TV report on April 13, Russia also mobilized a large number of heavy equipment to the Finnish border, and from the video, even included the "iskander" campaign tactical missiles that are "nuclear and conventional". But "the situation is stronger than people", it can be said responsibly, Finland will definitely be under strong military pressure from Russia, but basically can rule out the possibility of "invasion" of the Russian army, if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is fought like this, Putin will also take military action against Finland and provoke the Russo-Finnish war, it can only be described in two words, that is, "crazy".
I suddenly remembered the opening sentence of "Sun Tzu's Art of War", "Soldiers, the great affairs of the country, the place of death and life, the way of survival, must not be unaware." War is the biggest thing in the country, it is related to the survival of the country and the nation, we must be cautious, and we still remember that in the face of many provocations, coercions and temptations of the United States, Putin took the initiative to withdraw his troops, Lavrov blinked his eyes and nodded to reporters, "Will not invade Ukraine", at that time we were thinking, Russia was indeed not deceived, the United States "forced war" did not succeed, no one thought that Russia finally failed to "hold back" and jumped into the war trap.
Military losses aside, economic sanctions, russia is now facing geopolitical defeat, which is extremely painful. Don't think Finland is the last, After Finland joins, Sweden is likely to follow. The United States said that as long as Sweden applies, it will immediately provide military protection and does not need to wait for approval. In addition, Georgia is afraid that it will also be ready to move. Therefore, "one son is wrong, all the games are lost", Putin "gambles on the fortunes of the country" and wants to "win the heavens and half the son", but unfortunately "people are not as good as the heavens", the Russian army performance is "pulling across", failed to make a quick decision, and failed to live up to the trust of the emperor.