The 2022 AFC Champions League East Asia Group Stage is over, and the top 16 teams in East and West Asia have been produced. Although the AFC has not yet released the official technical points ranking, according to the calculation formula, we can already get the results: because the record of Shandong Taishan and Guangzhou in this year's group stage is 1 draw and 11 losses, only 0.5 club points have been obtained, and the Chinese Super League has slipped to 15th in Asia and 7th in East Asia in the latest technical points ranking. If this ranking is still the same by the end of this year, there will be only 1 place in the future when the Chinese Super League competes in the 2024-25 AFC Champions League!
1. Poor performance affects the number of places in the AFC Champions League
The AFC calculates the technical points ranking of its member associations on a four-year cycle and allocates seats in the AFC Champions League accordingly, usually two years in advance. For example, the allocation of seats in the AFC Champions League in 2021 and 2022 is determined based on technical points at the end of 2019. The Chinese Super League ranked first in Asia at the end of 2019, so although it only achieved 1 draw and 11 losses in the 2021 East Asian group stage, there are still "3+1" seats in 2022.
At the end of 2021, the technology points of the Chinese Super League were 38.761 points, and the ranking in Asia has fallen to 10th place and the fourth place in East Asia. Therefore, according to the rules, when playing in the 2023-24 AFC Champions League, the seats of the Chinese Super League teams became "2+2". That is to say, the 2022 Chinese Super League champions and FA Cup champions will directly participate in the group stage, and the league runners-up and third place will participate in a play-off round. However, it will be a home battle at that time, so the impact is not very large.
However, the results of the two teams participating in the AFC Champions League in 2022 are still 1 draw and 11 losses, which will affect the allocation of AFC Champions League seats in the 2024-25 season. Because the AFC has already made a decision during the competition committee meeting in January this year, the future AFC Champions League seats will be determined every year, that is, at the end of this year (strictly speaking, it should be the end of the 2022-23 AFC Champions League in February 2023), and the AFC will finalize the seats for the 2024-25 AFC Champions League based on the results of the last four years (2019 to February 2023). ; The 2023-24 season will finalize the 2025-26 AFC Champions League participation.
2. There will be only one seat left in the Chinese Super League
In this year's AFC Champions League group stage, Shandong Taishan drew 0-0 with the Singapore Lion City Mariners to get one point, while Guangzhou lost all six games. Because there are two teams in the Chinese Super League, the 1 point scored by the Shandong team will be equally divided by the two teams, and the Chinese Super League can only get 0.5 points in terms of club points. Coupled with the points of 2021 and 2019, the total number of points of the club at home is only 18.650 points, which is converted into "technical points", which is only 30.449 points.
As a result, the Chinese Super League can only rank 15th in the AFC technical points rankings, down five places from 10th place before the start of the 2022 AFC Champions League. And the two teams in the Chinese Super League have all been eliminated, and there is no possibility of increasing the number of points. Therefore, at the end of this season, when the AFC finalizes the allocation of seats for the 2024-25 season based on technical points, the Chinese Super League will have only 1 place to participate, that is, only the 2023 Chinese Super League champions will be eligible to represent China in the AFC Champions League!
In contrast, Malaysia's only team, Johor, defeated South Korea's Ulsan Hyundai and Guangzhou in the group stage, and also drew with japan's Kawasaki Striker with 13 points in the group stage. As a result of breaking into the round of 16, he received an additional 3 bonus points and 16 points in terms of club points. As of the end of this year's AFC Champions League group stage, Malaysia's total technical points were 39.918 points. Before the start of the AFC Champions League, they also ranked 20th in Asia, and after the group stage, they jumped to the top 10 in Asia and 4th in the East Asian region.
Johor will also participate in the knockout stage, and Malaysia also has clubs in the AFC Cup, asia's second-tier club competition, if it wins, it can also get the corresponding club points, so by the end of this season, if it can maintain the fourth place in East Asia, Malaysia will directly replace China and get "2+2" seats when it competes in the 2024-25 AFC Champions League.
Thailand's Baton United also won the right to qualify for the group, but due to the poor performance of Chiang Rai United, which also represented Thailand, it lowered the overall technical points of the Thai league. As a result, the Thai league ranks fifth in East Asia after Malaysia. Vietnam's technical points have also improved further as Wong Eng Ka Lai won their first group game and are currently in sixth place in the East Asian region with 35.513 points.
So far, the Chinese Super League has fallen to several participating countries in Southeast Asia in the AFC technical points.
3. The Chinese Super League should cultivate internal strength at the moment
Before the start of the AFC Champions League play-off at the end of February this year, the reporter proposed that in view of the current situation, the Super League team should withdraw from this year's AFC Champions League, on the one hand, it was affected by the epidemic, on the other hand, it was focused on the future. Because participating in the competition is equivalent to "sending points" to the opponent, and the overall consideration is still to try not to let the opponent get more technical points from himself. The actual situation just verifies this.
For example, the Guangzhou team insisted on "swinging the competition", losing both games against Johor and giving the opponent 6 points, johor also qualified as the first in the group with the help of the home advantage. If the Guangzhou team does not participate, then the Johor team does not have these 6 points, whether they can finally get the current 13 points, as well as the 3 points after qualifying, it is difficult to say, and Malaysia may not be able to directly obtain so many technical points. However, Malaysia has now jumped to fourth place in the East Asian region with such results.
This is actually similar to the situation of the Guangzhou team participating in the competition last year and facing the Jiezhi team in Hong Kong, China. The technical points of Hong Kong, China, can surpass the Chinese Super League at the end of 2021, which has a lot to do with the 6 points that the Guangzhou team "sent" to the Jiezhi team.
From a strategic point of view, although "withdrawal" means that the Chinese Super League cannot increase points, it will not give opponents the opportunity to quickly increase points. Unfortunately, the Chinese Super League obviously does not have a higher pattern and vision in foreign wars, and makes more reasonable choices.
Of course, in the 2024-25 season, if the Chinese Super League really has only one team to compete in the AFC Champions League, it is not a matter of "the sky falling", after all, the current AFC Champions League seats are distributed once a year. By the 2023-24 season, if the Chinese Super League can fully compete in the AFC Champions League, in the case of "2+2" seats, it means that the four Chinese Super League teams can attack in all directions, and each team will strive to win and strive for as many technical points as possible. By the 2024-25 season, if the team representing the Chinese Super League continues to strive for good results, the technical points of the Chinese Super League will soon be improved, and the number of places in the Chinese Super League in the AFC Champions League will soon be increased again.
Therefore, for the current Chinese Super League clubs, perhaps it is time to use the last two or three years to cultivate internal skills.