Since April 9, China's Y-20 large transport aircraft have delivered military supplies to Serbia for three consecutive days, including the FK-3 air defense missile weapon system. Although it was a deal that had long been finalized, the West reacted fiercely, not only threatening EU qualifications, but even selling weapons to Serbia's autonomous province of Kosovo. How much role will This batch of Chinese munitions play in Serbia's national defense construction? How do Serbs see the fierce reaction from the West? In April 2022, observer network interviewed Serbian military analyst Aleksandar Radic.
【Editor/Observer Network Li Huanyu Translation/Philip (Serbian International Student)】
Observer Network: Since April 9, The Chinese Y-20 large transport aircraft has delivered military supplies, including the FK-3 anti-aircraft missile weapon system, to Serbia for three consecutive days. At present, what is the level of Serbia's air defense forces? How can the delivery of the FK-3 improve serbian air defenses?
Radic: The Serbian army needs to be modernized, after all, the current equipment is still inherited from the Yugoslav federation period, most of the equipment was produced in the 1970s and 1980s, and the last update of the air defense system was 40 years ago, and the time span is very large. Factories and institutions in Serbia have been repaired, but the outdated system has not been repaired.
I am talking about Soviet-style equipment from the late 1960s, such as the S-125 and 2K12, in addition to those systems that protect ground forces on the front lines, which are at the heart of the Serbian surface-to-air system, which, together with organized radar systems, command centers and fighters, are responsible for the security of Serbian airspace.
For a small country like Serbia, the purpose of the air defense system is to counterattack, and it is risky to escalate the enemy's attack, because it is difficult for us to really go to war, after all, our military deployment is far inferior to THAT.
Serbia's main anti-aircraft equipment - S-125 and 2K12
In 1999, the system was put to the test. During the NATO operation, even if some targets cannot be attacked due to the presence of the Air Defense System, weather reasons, organizational reasons, etc., they will still make a comeback after a while. We were also taught that for small countries there are certain limitations to the pure defensive route, and can lead to disastrous consequences, unless your defense system is stronger than the enemy's attack system, can repel the enemy attack in advance, and by the time the enemy is already in your airspace, it will be too late.
This also throws two major problems for Serbia's subsequent air defense construction:
First, Serbia's airspace is surrounded by NATO, that is to say, the only scenario in which the air defense system will come in handy is a conflict between Serbia and NATO, which is unbearable for Serbia;
Second, Serbia, as a militaryly neutral country, it is necessary to have all the elements related to defense, which means that the air defense system needs to be upgraded, and the old equipment needs to be improved in a leap.
Some people have also asked whether in the face of a strong NATO, it is necessary to continue to maintain the components of the air defense system. The answer is yes, history is hard to predict, and if you abandon some elements of national defense, it's hard to predict what you'll face in ten, twenty, thirty years. Twenty or thirty years ago, European countries said that there was no risk of conventional war, and various seminars and experts began to emphasize non-traditional security and mixed strikes, of course, counter-terrorism, conventional warfare was no longer mainstream, and some even felt that it was amateurish to discuss conventional warfare. And then what happened? Large-scale conventional war in Ukraine.
At this time, the purchase of the Chinese FK-3 means that the Serbian air defense system has been upgraded for several generations at once, and it can also help the Serbian side to effectively maintain the training of personnel and the normal deployment of some forces.
Serbia surrounded by NATO
Observer Network: During the 2019 Russian-Cypriot joint exercise, Russia deployed S-400 in Serbia, why did Serbia not buy the Russian S-400/S-300 or the better-performing FD-2000 in Chinese products, but chose the FK-3?
Radicci: Compared to other Systems in China and Russia, price and efficiency are the main reasons for buying FK-3.
Since the current government came to power in 2012, the media has paid a lot of attention to this topic, and a large number of headlines have been emphasizing that the Serbian side wants to buy S-300 or S-400. Judging from the number of media reporting on the incident, it can be seen which anti-missile system to buy, which is an important political issue.
The purchase of such systems is not simple, when negotiating with the Russians, first of all, the price will generally become a problem, and secondly, the planned orders at that time involved a wide range of contents, the Serbian side purchased helicopters and many electronic systems from Russia, and also involved the upgrading of 14 Serbian MiG-29 fighters (4 from the former Yugoslavia, 6 from Russia, and 4 from Belarus), which had to be upgraded with Serbian finances.
MiG-29 fighter of the Serbian Air Force
In addition, Serbia's arms purchases have a diverse tradition. This can be traced back to 1968, when Yugoslavia was very dependent on the Soviet Union for arms procurement, but the Soviet Union's suppression of the "Prague Spring" shocked Yugoslavia, after which Chairman Tito decided that arms procurement must not rely on a single country. Soon Yugoslavia signed orders with Swedish, French, British, and American companies, but procurement from the Soviet Union and its satellite countries was not interrupted.
So the air defense system also became a hybrid - Anglo-American and Soviet-style radar + Soviet fighters (MiG-21, MiG-29), which was an unusual complex, we also had locally produced aircraft, such as eagle attack aircraft and G4 Super Seagull, but equipped with British Rolls-Royce engines, as well as Western equipment.
Yugoslavia's self-developed Eagle attack aircraft
It's a bit of a repetition of history, but my country is no longer as twenty million people as it used to be, but a country with a population of less than seven million. Since its military procurement in December 2016, Serbia has tried to target its procurement to friendly powers, which is an important political topic. About 15 years ago, Serbia introduced the so-called four pillars of diplomatic relations, and now the four pillars are rarely used at the information level, but the four pillars have not changed at present, namely China and Russia in the East, and the United States and the European Union in the West.
Serbia's procurement from four directions, of which part of the diversified procurement is China. At this time, a reasonable question is what Serbia can buy from China, after all, it has to take into account its own needs and compatibility, so in the end the air defense system stands out. When negotiating with the Chinese side, the price proposed by the Chinese side is very suitable for the Serbian side, and the FK-3 is similar to the S-300 in some places, which will become the best choice for the Serbian side in the long run. In short, it is the purchase motivation, the appropriate price-benefit ratio, and through Sino-Cypriot cooperation, determine which Chinese equipment can meet the needs of the Cypriot side, and finally the air defense system can meet all the needs after research.
In fact, this is more of a political issue, and then an economic issue, but the military professionalism is not so strong.
Observer Network: The FK-3 delivered this time was finalized a few years ago, but the Western media has focused on the way China supplies the Y-20 directly to Serbia. Will the use of domestic aircraft for direct delivery have different effects than other methods?
Radicci: I think China's use of its Y-20 transport has sent a very interesting signal to Western countries that China has strategic transportation capabilities.
An important core criterion for a great power to be called a global power is that it has the ability to deliver quickly and accurately from one end of the world to the other, either by delivering rapid reaction forces or by delivering materials useful for development, such as aiding countries swept by disasters.
As of now, strategic transportation is monopolized by the United States and Russia, and only these two countries have the ability to carry out remote delivery in all directions and on a large scale. Nato membership has certain limitations, here is an example, France has a secondary projection of a battalion - about a thousand people to intervene in the situation in Africa, and in this way to NATO, the United States is to show its independent ability, to show that they can do what other countries in Europe can not do, but after a few days they still made a request for support to NATO members.
So if China now has the ability to deliver 12 transport planes anywhere in the world and deliver supplies half the world, as in the case of equipment delivered to Serbia this time, it means that China has a new capability.
The Y-20 flew to Serbia
The Y-20 had not left Asia before, so the West was closely watching the model, which was a good reflection of what China might have in the future. And new models equipped with Chinese domestic engines may soon appear. The West noted that the planes arriving in Serbia were equipped with Russian engines, but that doesn't change the fact that China can fly anywhere with 12 planes. This poses a challenge to the West, and this batch of aircraft flew during the Ukrainian crisis, although this time is indeed a little awkward, but the FK-3 is a list negotiated in 2019, Serbia paid an advance payment, and then spent several months training Serbian air defense personnel, and there is no news about the purchase of Chinese air defense systems by the Serbian side.
The West is aware of this, and there is also relevant public information, and in this context the West's emphasis on weapons delivery is a bit too strong. Now they are rendering anti-Russian sentiment, establishing a clear narrative structure of good and evil, just at this time the transport plane with the Chinese flag landed at the Serbian airport, which was naturally used by the Western media for negative analysis and propaganda, but this matter is not secret.
Moreover, Serbia is surrounded by NATO member states, and any aircraft, including Chinese aircraft, if they want to land at batanica military airport, must go through a NATO neighboring country, and there is a fixed declaration and approval procedure for the transportation of dangerous goods, so the NATO countries around Serbia, at least at the military level, are aware of the destination of the aircraft and the equipment they carry, otherwise it is impossible to reach Serbia through the whole territory of Bulgaria, Bulgaria is a NATO country. And there are now fighter jets sent by NATO countries in response to the Ukraine crisis.
The Transport 20 enters Serbia through NATO countries Turkey and Bulgaria
There is no conspiracy theory behind this matter, but the media has its own rules of the game, and then things have the color of so-called "conspiracy theory".
There is also an interesting detail on the Cypriot side, Vucic said on February 21 that the plane carrying the FK-3 would arrive on February 25, but the Ukrainian side started fighting first, and there were some clues that the original plan was to use the An-124 of a Ukrainian company to take the commercial route to deliver the equipment, but after the war, the Ukrainians had other things to do, so they could not do transportation, so the plan was changed.
In this way, at first, the two sides did not agree to let the Chinese transport aircraft deliver. Therefore, at the analytical level, the fact that Chinese transport aircraft are involved makes the Reaction of the West more intense, but the military neutrality of the Serbian side and the absence of sanctions against Russia are actually another major reason for the Excessive Reaction of the West.
Observer Network: Some of Serbia's neighbors, such as Montenegro, as well as the province of Kosovo and Metosia (Kosovo full name) in Serbia, are keen to hype up this matter, what do you think of their reaction?
Radic: Neighboring countries criticize Serbia mainly because they are influenced by the North Atlantic camp and the media, so they have always criticized and rejected Serbia. And the self-confidence and survival of these new peoples depended on their alienation from Serbia. It is even hard to say that for these Western Balkan countries, how loyal they are to NATO and European values, how much they reject Serbia. Although these ethnic groups and Serbs lived together in a larger country for more than 70 years, they were scattered after the dissolution.
In the context of the West's desire to establish a value system and to require other countries to adhere to it, some Balkan countries are obedient to the EU and NATO for practical reasons, and others are trying to eliminate congestion, and in this context, there will always be countries that concoct and play up the so-called Serbian threat theory.
Then there is the Authority in Pristina (Kosovo), who describes any serbian initiative as a threat, and the arrival of the FK-3 has actually been condemned in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and they seem to feel the Western critical attitude towards this matter (and then start to follow the trend), until in the previous few years, if Serbia had bought weapons from China and Russia, the criticism of neighboring countries would not have made any noise. The United States has a research team in Belgrade, specifically to investigate whether the procurement of third countries has violated the United States sanctions against Russia, and the people in this team have also launched sanctions against individuals in China, if after their research, the Pentagon or the State Department did not jump out to criticize a few words, then the surrounding small countries jumped out of the criticism is meaningless. Previously, at best, it was to express displeasure, but to recognize Serbia as a military neutral country with the right to choose.
However, now that the West has expressed its unified position, it is natural that some officials from Pristina (Kosovo) or Podgorica (Montenegro), or Zagre (Croatia) Or Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) have jumped out and criticized Serbia's cooperation with Eastern countries. Because this kind of following the trend will now get the attention of the Western media. If it had been before February 24, no one would have listened to Pristina's nonsense.
Observer Network: Germany warned Serbia after the delivery of the FK-3 that if it wants to become a member of the European Union, its foreign policy should be in line with the EUROPEAN Union; the United Kingdom has also sold rockets and anti-tank systems to Kosovo.
Radic: There is no doubt that the West will pressure Serbia to end its military cooperation with China, and the EU will be the biggest pressurer.
It is generally assumed that NATO should be the force that exerts pressure because of the 1999 bombing, but NATO is made up of sovereign countries' respective militaries, and each country will have its own realistic way of looking at the problem. NATO even tolerates the use of Russian-made equipment by some member states, and since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, a mechanism has been established in which sanctions involving russian military cooperation will be set aside if they undermine the combat capabilities of NATO countries, so that countries with Russian-style equipment can continue to purchase necessary parts from Russia. Of course, the above situation was before February 24.
Radical pressure on Serbia in this context will certainly be there, but the EU is the one who most wants to force Serbia to comply, because the EU has a unified external position, which emphasizes coherence. But there are also uncoordinated voices within the EU, with some countries giving themselves high levels of freedom, such as Hungary, the northern neighbor, openly cooperating with Russia and refusing to provide military aid to Ukraine, as most NATO countries have done. A few days ago, Russian transport planes also flew to Hungary during the war to transport nuclear fuel.
And there is no mechanism within the EU to punish disobedient countries, and they have never thought of establishing such a mechanism. The initial cornerstone of the European Union was the value of Western European countries, but after the rapid eastward expansion, many entangled countries were added, and the tension they created was very large, so Berlin and Paris were very eager to make these countries obey, and Serbia, as an EU candidate, naturally became a good target for killing chickens and monkeys. There is no mechanism to punish member states, but there is a mechanism to punish candidate countries, so the EU's response to Sino-Cypriot cooperation will be very radical and will hopefully warn Hungary and other countries.
There is also a reason for the EU to criticize Serbia, and it is necessary to mention that the EU's armament needs will increase for some time to come. During the first 30 years of peacetime, many countries reduced their armaments. Some of the most conservative countries, like Germany, have gone directly to military specialization, abolished military service, and spent heavily on defense as a share of GDP, and even seen a very unusual situation – Serbia routinely deploys more tanks than France.
However, this situation is about to be reversed, military issues will dominate, and all kinds of military sellers will naturally want to share the cake, so it can be analyzed that some European military sellers may be dissatisfied with Serbia's purchase of FK-3, just like in 2020, some Russian military sellers have a little unhappiness with orders between China and Serbia, and the EU side will also have this very realistic mood. The companies that produce air defense systems naturally see China as competitors, and in this case, the political and economic interests of the West are synchronized, so they begin to condemn Serbia at the political level, but behind it is actually business.
Observer Network: At present, Serbia is negotiating with many countries to purchase 12 fighter jets, although the French "Rafale" is a hot target, but we have noticed that President Vucic has not denied the possibility of purchasing fighter jets from other countries.
Radic: Of course, it is possible to buy a Chinese plane, which is not a taboo, but I think the purchase of Rafale has been talked about for several years, and there are very pragmatic political considerations behind it, plus President Vucic has a certain authoritarian color, and some decisions will have something to do with his personal preferences.
He once had good relations with Germany and relied in part on former Chancellor Angela Merkel, but after Merkel's retirement, who in the EU can protect Serbia's interests on certain conditions? At this time, Macron was a strong leader in the European Union, and one way to show goodwill was to buy arms from France. Traditionally, France is more fierce in arms sales, for example, compared with other Western countries, sometimes do not need to publish prices, such as the United States to sell arms but also to disclose the export authorization of Congress, which will indicate the price and other information, but France in the sale of weapons, there is a direct strong support from the president, in this context " Rafale" has become a topic of bilateral discussion.
French Rafale fighter
In the first week of April, Serbia held a general election, and the French media immediately announced that Serbia was considering buying the "Rafale" when they saw that the overall situation of the government's re-election had been decided, which also showed that there was political consultation behind the deal. At this time, other military sellers also found that Serbia had this demand, and then there was a new supply proposal, but in any case, the Serbian side and France must have been in contact with the "Rafale" purchase intention many months in advance.
For Serbia, this is also a good situation now, because there is competition, there is no bidding, but there is competition based on direct contact, such as the British second-hand Eurofighter, which they call the Typhoon Fighter, and the Chinese aircraft, and the media now presents a picture of Serbia considering multiple suppliers, but Serbia has actually chosen "Rafale", unless there is an order that is more in line with the political, economic and military dimensions combined.
Observer Network: In what areas do you think there is still room for military cooperation between China and Cyprus?
Radic: At present, we know that Serbia has purchased FK-3 and drones CH-92 and CH-95 from China, and the agreement signed between the two sides actually reflects the consideration of the Serbian side - the two sides do not only want to trade equipment, but hope to carry out joint projects, for the domestic market, but also for the tertiary market.
Serbia has its own UAV Pegaz (Pegasus), which has been developed in recent years, but the Cypriot side lacks some parts-related knowledge and experience, and has accumulated some experience through the purchase of Chinese UAVs, so it can not only get China's UAVs later, but also use them for mass production later, which is the model of future cooperation that Serbia sees.
At present, there are a number of initiatives aimed at developing joint armament systems for sale to third places, after the Sino-Cypriot defense agencies found that there was room for cooperation in the fields of integrated air defense systems and self-propelled artillery during the contact between the Chinese and Cypriot defense agencies. This is a system owned by both Sides, and through joint research and development, they can jointly enter new markets that have not been opened due to different political histories and other reasons.
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