With the development model of "technology + market" two-wheel drive, the 150 billion market value of "vaccine Mao" handed over an excellent annual "answer sheet" to the capital market.
On the evening of April 27, Zhifei Bio announced its 2021 annual report, the company's revenue exceeded the mark of 30 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 30.652 billion yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 101.79% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother and the net profit after deduction of non-net profit were 10.209 billion yuan and 10.184 billion yuan, respectively, a substantial increase of 209.23% and 206.48%, and the earnings per share were 6.38 yuan. The Company intends to pay a cash dividend of RMB6 (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
Change one: Agent products promote rapid growth in performance The proportion of revenue is decreasing
From the perspective of the main business composition, Zhifei Biological's products mainly include two categories: agent products and self-operated products, and in 2021, the company's agency products contributed 20.93 billion yuan in revenue and 9.697 billion yuan in independent product revenue. There is no doubt that agency products are still an important support for the strong growth of the company's performance.
According to the annual report, Zhifei Bio has a total of 11 products on the market, and 1 product is conditionally listed, including vaccine products to prevent infectious diseases such as brain flow, cervical cancer, pneumonia, rotavirus and so on, of which the agent products include Merck's quadrivalent HPV vaccine, nine-valent HPV vaccine, pentavalent wheel vaccine, 23-valent pneumonia vaccine and inactivated hepatitis A vaccine.
As the exclusive agent of Merck's quadrivalent HPV vaccine and nine-valent HPV vaccine, Zhifei Biotech has successively obtained the agency rights of four-valent and nine-valent in 2017 and 2018, and with the continuous rise in demand, the revenue has perfectly achieved "five consecutive increases".
Figure 1: Revenue of Zhifei Bio
According to MERCK's china website, by the end of 2021, the quadrivalent HPV vaccine and the nine-valent HPV vaccine have reached more than 16.5 million Chinese women of appropriate age. In the annual report, we can see that in 2021, the product line of Zhifei Biological Agent will maintain steady and high-speed growth, and the batch issuance of nine-valent HPV vaccine and quadrivalent HPV vaccine will grow rapidly, in addition, according to the procurement plan of Zhifei Biologics and Merck, it is expected that the follow-up HPV agent sales part will still maintain rapid growth.
Figure 2: Batch issuance of Zhifei Biological Agent products in 2021
It is worth noting that the current market demand for HPV vaccine is still strong, and with the increase of public awareness of vaccination, the domestic penetration rate is expected to accelerate. Guojin Securities speculates that the potential market space for domestic HPV vaccines under neutral estimates is 194.8 billion yuan. Behind this, Zhifei Bio is expected to become the biggest beneficiary.
Southwest Securities pointed out that Zhifei Biological sales capacity is the strongest in domestic vaccine enterprises, covering the widest network of vaccination points, HPV vaccine, domestic HPV vaccine penetration rate is still low, domestic vaccine listing in the short term has less impact on the company, it is expected that the next 3 years of agent HPV will still maintain a tight situation of short supply; in terms of five-valent wheel vaccine, Zhifei Biology is rapidly increasing, and the peak profit in 2023 is expected to reach 500 million yuan. In the future, agent varieties such as HPV and pentavalent wheel vaccines will continue to drive the company's performance outbreak.
It is worth noting that while the agency product business is eye-catching, the proportion of this type of business in operating income has dropped from 91.86% in 2020 to the latest 68.28%, while the proportion of its own product revenue exceeded 30% for the first time.
Figure 3: An overview of the proportion of various types of business revenue of Zhifei Bio in the past two years
This change is inseparable from Zhifei Bio's continuous efforts to develop self-developed products.
Change two: independent product breakthrough is imminent R & D investment continues to increase
Zhifei Bio focuses on the prevention and control of infectious diseases, as of the end of 2021, a total of 29 independent research and development projects, after years of research and development, many products have entered the clinical stage, and some independent products will gradually enter the harvest period. According to the annual report, there are 16 projects in the clinical trial and application for registration stages.
Figure 4: Zhifei Bio is in the clinical trial and registration stages
According to reports, Zhifei Biological lyophilized human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) has obtained a phase III clinical trial summary report, quadrivalent influenza virus lysis vaccine, 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and lyophilized human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) Phase III clinical orderly advancement. 15-valent pneumonia combination seedlings, MRC-5 crazy seedlings, 4-valent flow brain combination seedlings, etc. are all potential varieties with huge market and insufficient competition, and Ping An Securities said that it is expected that the above varieties will be successively landed in the next 1-3 years, providing new growth momentum for Zhifei Biologics. In addition, the microcards for prevention and their supporting EC reagents approved in mid-2021 have been bid for in 25 provincial-level units and are about to enter the volume stage.
China Merchants Securities expects that with the listing of large products such as ACYW135 polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, 23-valent pneumonia polysaccharide vaccine, human diploid rabies vaccine and quadrivalent influenza lysis vaccine, the total reachable market of Zhifei Bio's self-operated products is expected to grow significantly to more than 50 billion yuan in 2026.
It should be noted that the current haze of the new crown epidemic has not dissipated, and the Zhifei Bio-Recombinant Protein New Crown Vaccine (Zhikewei) was approved for emergency use in China in March 2021, and was approved for conditional listing in 2022 and used as a sequential strengthening needle, providing protection for more than 100 million people and contributing to the recovery of normal economic life. At the same time, the company's recombinant new crown vaccine has been approved in Uzbekistan for emergency use and sales licenses, Indonesia has been approved for emergency use and sequential strengthening of needles, and Colombia has been approved for emergency use, and overseas exports are expected to continue to make progress in the future.
The achievements of independent products are inseparable from the investment in research and development.
By the end of last year, Zhifei Bio has formed three major research and production bases of Zhifei Green Bamboo, Zhifei Longkema and Zhirui Biomedical Industrial Park. It has built a number of vaccine research and development platforms, covering a wide range of vaccine development paths, including polysaccharide and polysaccharide conjugate vaccine technology platform, component technology platform, inactivated vaccine technology platform, gene recombinant technology platform, mRNA vaccine technology platform, adenovirus vector vaccine technology platform, human diploid cell line technology platform, new polyvalent technology platform, new adjuvant technology platform, etc. The forward-looking layout of tuberculosis products, rabies vaccine, respiratory virus vaccine, pneumonia vaccine, intestinal disease vaccine, meningitis vaccine and other multiple matrices.
In 2021, the company's R&D investment reached 814 million yuan, an increase of nearly 70% over the same period of the previous year, with a total of 566 R&D personnel, providing a more adequate talent reserve and capital guarantee for the company's independent R&D innovation.
With the continuous increase of independent products and the continuous increase of R&D investment, the performance of Zhifei Bio is expected to usher in a new growth curve, and at the same time, the company's revenue structure is expected to continue to optimize, better respond to the operational risks brought about by external uncertainties, and help its own high-quality development.
Change three: marketing is becoming more and more mature and perfect, and research and development complement each other
One of the main strengths of Zhifei Biotech's ability to become a partner of Merck is its excellent sales network.
By the end of 2021, the marketing network has covered 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, more than 300 prefectures and cities, more than 2,600 districts and counties, and more than 30,000 grass-roots health service points (township vaccination points and community clinics). In terms of staffing, the company's sales staff in 2021 was 2817, an increase of 48% over the same period last year. The professional sales team with deep terminal and wide coverage will introduce the company's research and development results into the market one by one.
Figure 5: The number of sales personnel of Zhifei Bio
The two-wheel drive development model of "technology + market" makes the R & D innovation results and market sales results feed each other benignly, while creating social benefits, safeguarding the interests of shareholders, enhancing corporate benefits, and promoting the development of the company.
Combined with the above new changes, we can observe that under the impetus of mature and standardized marketing, Zhifei Bio, which has a rich product pipeline, is moving towards "agent + autonomous" resonance volume, and is expected to continue the high growth trend in 2022.
For this judgment, it seems that we can also find evidence in two other aspects.
At the same time as the annual report was disclosed, Zhifei Bio also released the company's quarterly report, which showed that the company achieved operating income of 8.841 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 125.16% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.923 billion yuan, an increase of 104.95% year-on-year.
Figure 6: Zhifei Bio's quarterly financial data
In addition, in the first quarter, Zhifei Bio ushered in the "stars and moon" of public funds.
According to iFind data, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the number of funds holding heavy holdings in Zhifei Bio has increased sharply from 227 at the end of last year to 523, and the number of shares held has also increased from 122 million shares to 191 million shares. CEIBS Medical Health, managed by Gülen, added 15,004,200 shares of Zhifei Bio in the first quarter, which was promoted to the top ten heavy stocks. Private Equity Yingshui Investment No. 9 and No. 13 funds bought for the first time in the first quarter, holding 11.717 million shares and 9.966 million shares respectively, becoming the largest institutional shareholder. At the same time, Dongfang Hong Qi heng managed by Zhang Feng, general manager of Dongfang Red Asset Management, Invesco Great Wall Prosperity and Enterprising managed by Li Jin, and Fuguo Innovation Trend jiacang Zhifei Bio managed by Li Yuanbo all exceeded 1 million shares.
Figure 7: Comparison of the fund's positions in Zhifei Biology
As of the close of trading on April 28, Zhifei Bio reported 93.72 yuan, with a total market value of 150 billion yuan.
This article originated from the financial world