On April 26, Beijing time, the 76ers lost 88-103 at home to the Raptors, and the total score of the series was pulled to 2-3. Fans and friends who have a certain understanding of history seem to smell a familiar taste.
Doug Rivers, one of the NBA's "15 big names" and the league's "king of reversals," is once again feeling tremendous pressure. From 3-0 to 2-3, the 76ers, who were once in a good situation, the road to promotion was reborn, what was the problem with this team? Can Rivers solve these problems and wash away his stigma?
Problem One: A locked-up super duo
During the 76ers' third series with the Raptors, I mentioned in conversations with friends that Harden and Embiid are perhaps the "least trusted" playoff combinations in the league today. That game, Embiid killed the Raptors with a three-pointer in the final 0.8 seconds of overtime, which made my 76ers fans very excited, but that didn't overturn my conclusion.
To say embiid is not trustworthy in the playoffs is not to say that he can't shoot key shots, but that his playoffs are worth less than the regular season in terms of overall contribution. The data proves that Embiid averaged 26 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game in the regular season of his career, shooting 49% from the field and averaging 3.4 turnovers per game. In the playoffs, his average performance per game was 24.4 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 3.7 turnovers, shooting 46.6%, all contributions shrunk, and efficiency also declined significantly.
In contrast, of the 16 teams that have entered the playoffs this season, only three teams have the top scorers, and the average score of the playoffs is lower than that of the regular season, these three people are: Towns, Siakam, and Embiid - this is actually very easy to understand, as a superstar, the regular season as long as the normal play, if the age is older or injured, there will even be reservations, but in the playoffs, it is a matter of life and death, it is inevitable to do their best, time, shots, and naturally the score will rise.
From this point of view, Embiid is not a qualified boss. Of course, he also has his own objective reasons: as a singles-player interior lineman with the ball, the playoffs face targeted bag defense, which is not as easy to play as in the regular season, and it is more difficult to face than the faster, more agile, longer-range small men. Towns and Siakam also appear on this list, not entirely by accident.
Embiid proved his toughness with a single kill and a wounded battle, but he could not change the above objective facts. In the first three games of the series, although the 76ers all won, Embiid's output of 27.7 points per game was still lower than in the regular season. The next G4 and G5, plagued by a thumb injury, are 14 of 31 shots, averaging only 20.5 points per game.
Embiid has not performed well in the last two matches, and it can be explained that big men are more likely to be targeted or have injuries on their hands. And Harden's performance, there is no reason to excuse it, except disappointment, or disappointment.
Harden has always had the stigma of pulling crotch in the playoffs, and this embarrassment has intensified after leaving his familiar tactical system. This season's Harden, whether it is for the sake of rules or his own state, the decline in performance on the court is already an indisputable fact. After joining the 76ers, because of embiid's existence, he was completely reduced to a deputy, playing a calm position attack that he was not good at, and his performance continued to decline.
Unlike traditional point guards such as Paul and Rondo, Harden was originally a shooting guard to change the organization, his passing assist should be based on personal offensive threats, and in the face of the Raptors' group of long-armed monsters with explosive athletic ability - whether it is Anunoby, or Barnes, Siakam - even in one-on-one, he can not take advantage of anything, coupled with the inaccuracy of the outside, the power is naturally greatly reduced.
In the first four games of this series, Ha has only scored 19.3 points on the field, shooting 37.5%, and today it is 4 of 11, only 15 points, 7 assists and 5 turnovers. Whether you are willing to accept it or not: the Dengge who killed the rocket in all directions at that time could not come back after all.
Problem two: the instability of role players
The 76ers started the series with a 3-0 lead, not because of Embiid and Harden, but because of the two main "role players" around them.
In those three games, Teres Maxi averaged 26.7 points per game, shooting 60%, and Tobias Harris also averaged 19 points per game, shooting 58.8%! The fiery feel of the two of them effectively makes up for the lack of output of the two superstars in the playoffs.
But there is a reason why role players are treated as role players. As a 21-year-old second-year guard, Maxi's performance in this year's playoffs is enough to surprise, especially the outstanding performance of scoring 38 points in the first game of the series, which is even more popular.
Maxi dared to fight and had a good mental temperament, but as far as personal skills were concerned, there were still limitations. His current scoring methods are mainly focused on empty shots, and quick processing after receiving the ball, raiding to score, but really swinging down to play one-on-one, creating offensive opportunities autonomously, he and the star guard still have a grade gap.
Today's game, the Raptors clearly increased their defenses against Maxi, and its offensive threat naturally plummeted, eventually scoring only 12 points on 5-of-14 shooting.
Harris is a different situation, his problem is not technical ability, but more in personality and psychology. Harris has been compared to Cameron Anthony, which is enough to prove that he is a no. 3 and 4 swing man, and his personal skills are comprehensive enough. But the biggest reason Harris was sorry for the top-salary contract was his severe lack of aggressiveness.
It's hard to imagine a player with a top-salary contract who averaged 18.7 points in 15 previous All-Stars shots in front of the game because the team brought in a new signing and only single-digit shots in the next two games, and only scored 18 points in total, which is Harris.
Although Harris's "Buddhist" performance has adjusted since then, in the current team, he is still willing to only make the fourth choice on the offensive end. You can hardly expect a player who has a steady output every game and solves problems that Harden and Embiid can't solve.
Problem three: Weak lineup depth
If Harden and Embiid can't do it, and Neither can Maxi and Harris, then the 76ers are basically not okay at all. Because they have one of the worst bench depths in the league.
As of press time, the 76ers averaged just 17.6 points per game in this year's playoffs, the second-to-last of all 16 playoff teams and slightly better than the Bulls at 16.8 points. The third-bottom Celtics, who are averaging nearly six more bench points per game (23.5), are nearly six more points per game.
Several major rotations on the 76ers bench include Georges Niang, Sherk Milton, Matisse Sable and Paul Reid, with Sable also unable to play in the away game in Toronto because he was not vaccinated. When a team's top bench scorer is a career average of 6.1 points per game, indomitable white shooter, you should know that you can't expect too much from them.
In contrast, the Raptors, because VanVleet and Barnes took turns injured, the depth of the rotation was also weakened, and the bench score averaging 27.8 per game was only 10th among 16 playoff teams. But after all, they still have Achuva and Boucher who can bring vitality, and with Thaddis Young providing experience, it is still much better than the 76ers.
In today's game, the Raptors bench scored an overwhelming 29-11 score, with Achuva alone scoring 17 points. On the 76 side, not a single substitute scored more than 3 points.
Question Four: Rivers' ability to adjust
Among the four bench players who contributed to the 76ers today, including Colkmaz, who was given the opportunity to play because of garbage time in the last 2 minutes and 16 seconds, many people may remember that the 76ers bench is not unavailable. At least in cases where the bench is grossly underpowered, they can try this shooter from Turkey.
Kolkmaz averaged 7.9 points per game in his career, and in addition to being able to fire cannons from outside, he also had a certain ability to hold the ball and attack. While he's not a perfect offensive player, he's definitely an option worth trying when regular rotations can't open the game.
Ordinary fans can forget him, but as the team's manager, Rivers should not wait until the big picture is set to remember that there is such a player available.
Of course, there may be unknown reasons why Kolkmatz, who has 21 points of playing time in the regular season as a fixed bench, suddenly fell out of the rotation in the playoffs. But from this small detail itself, it can still be seen that Rivers's strain is insufficient.
In the series with the Raptors, the 76ers once led 3-0 and seemed to be in complete control, but this was directly related to Barnes' two consecutive games due to injury, and the 76ers could not take it lightly. What's more, the key to the series is strain and adjustment, which has never been something Rivers is good at.
Don't forget, at the Magic in 2003, at the Clippers in 2015 and 2020, Rivers' teams also took a 3-1 lead, but both conceded three games in a row and lost the series. The so-called repeated two can not be repeated, Rivers coaching career 3 times 3-1 lead was overturned, the only in history, not just bad luck.
To give a small example of today's game: Rivers applied for a timeout with 10 minutes left in the second quarter, and then replaced harden, which was obviously arranged. However, when the timeout came back, the 76ers failed to play 6 consecutive offensive attempts, including Harden barely missing a single, Paul Reed, who scored 2 of 14 career three-pointers, and received the ball at the top of the arc, all of which were obvious mistakes, and they were hit by opponents in a wave of 8-0, and the score began to open from this time.
By comparison, Nick Nas also called a timeout as the quarter progressed to 5:22, and for the rest of the quarter, the Raptors went on a 13-6 run, and their defense left the 76ers with only veteran Green hitting two three-pointers and no one else scoring a single point in the near half of the quarter.
History tells us that in a seven-game, 4-4 series, even if it is 1-3 behind, it is not the end of the world, not to mention that the 76ers are still 3-2 ahead. However, it is unlikely that it would be unrealistic to expect Rivers' ability to adjust to solve a range of problems currently existing with the 76ers.
Perhaps, we will become witnesses to history and see the miracle of the first 3-0 comeback in the playoffs.